Josh Towers

A sleeper I mentioned earlier was Josh Towers and today he won the 5th spot in the Blue Jays rotation. In deep AL only leagues he is worth picking up. He could be good for an ERA around 5-5.5 and a decent amount of wins. He's not much of a fantasy machine but it wasn't too long ago he was posting very decent numbers as a decent pitching prospect. He is worth a shot to return to that though in deep AL only leagues. Give Towers a chance.

Gearing up for the season

The season is quickly approaching and my content has been...going down?!? I appologize but I have been very busy preparing myself for the season and haven't had a lot of time to post.

A couple of relevant notes:

- Roto Hog opened the market today. If you are playing Roto Hog, there has been a lot of fluctuation already so you should check it out.

- If you haven't bought Xtra Innings on Sports Blurb yet you should do so...otherwise you won't be able to read my weekly Head 2 Head article over there!

- Be sure to check out the Fantasy Man F.E.E.D over at Fantasy Baseball Express

- Subscribe to get MLB Front Office every night via email on the right hand side bar!

- Kenny Rogers had surgery and will be out for a long time. If you have him, drop him.

- Seth McClung was sent to the minor leagues, he was thought to be the front runner for saves in Tampa -- I guess not.

- Eric Gagne will start the season on the DL. Otsuka owners rejoice!

Thats all for now. Feel free to email me any and all fantasy or baseball related questions you have!

Quick Notes

A couple of quick notes:

- Mark Prior was sent to the minors today by the Cubs so he can attempt to regain the form that had him pitching in the playoffs in 2003. He apparently wasn't happy about it but then again who would be? He's worth giving a shot when he comes back up.

- Matt Garza was beat out for the last spot in the rotation by Carlos Silva. Silva has no fantasy value, however Garza will get that spot sometime this season and he has sleeper value then

- My Statistical Oddities Part 2 is up on Roto Hog. Check that out and tell them how much you like me! Joke.

- My weekly article on Sports Blurb will be up tomorrow. Make sure you buy the Xtra Innings package so you can read that. Its worth the money, trust me!

- For those of you in REALLY deep leagues, Tony Pena Jr. is the starting SS in KC beating out Angel Berroa who was demoted to the minors. Again, unless you're in a 20+ person league you shouldn't care about that. AL only leagues shouldn't really even care unless your 14-16 person leagues.

- Jorge Julio is closing for the Marlins as I'm sure you've all heard. If no one has picked him up yet in your league, Jump on That!

- Wade Miller officially won the 5th spot in the Cubs rotation. In 16 or 20 person mixed leagues he may be worth a look. He's also worth a look in NL only.

Calling All New Yorkers

When I see stories that talk about New York sports Hero's I feel compelled to spread the word. The Boogey Blog this week has a great story about one of the best man that ever played in a Yankee uniform, Bernie Williams. Williams hasn't shown up to Spring Training this year, but that hasn't discouraged the Yankee Nation. Boogey Blog details in their story how they Yankees should really send Williams off into the sunset.

Ok -- So I really have no connection to NY Sports but I thought this was a cool idea anyway. Go ahead and check it out.

AL Only Sleepers

I recently got an email from a reader about AL Only Saves. He Asked:

Hey Brad,Love the tiered tankings.Do you have a feel for deep AL prospects / sleepers?

Here are a couple of guys I recomended to him:

Thanks. Not sure how deep your league is but a couple guys to take a look at:


Alexi Casilla - Twins 2B/SS of the future, in a full season he could steal 50. Think Castillo in his prime.
Gavin Floyd - White Sox starter doesn't have the best stuff and may eventually find himself in the pen but he should make the rotation this year.
John Danks - The Brandon McCarthy trade is going to look great for the White Sox.
Brandon McCarthy - 4.50 ERA is expectable.
Gustavo Chacin - Starter was gold a couple of seasons ago -- was injured last year but should bounce back.
Josh Towers - Think one year farther down the line than Chacin and one heck of a bad season but they are paying him a lot to play in the minors and if he can make it back into some teams rotation he could be a decent last round AL only pick.

Obviously there are always the guys like:

Phil Hughes - Stud Yankees SP, Best SP in the minors and should be up by years end
Alex Gordon - Stud 3B
Mark Teahan - Moved to OF for Gordon but still has OF elig.
Delmon Young - Future STAR. He's the kind of guy you imagine 50/50 things about. Ok not really but you get the point.
Akinori Iwamura - Talked of working on speed. Should get lots of playing time for D-Rays

Hope this helps.

Matt Garza, SP, MIN

In a shocking twist, Carlos Silva allowed 11 hits and 9 earned runs in 3 1/3 inning on Saturday. Carlos Silva is certainly not fantasy worthy but someone else whos is is impacted significantly from it. Matt Garza could replace Silva in the rotation even after all of the Fantasy Players had lowered him a bit because he was going to be starting in AAA. Garza has a 1.00 ERA in nine innings out of the pen this spring. He is a valuable late round pick and has a lot more value than Silva. Silva was scheduled to start the Twins second game of the season but Garza would likely bump everyone else up and pitch the 5th.

Sports Blurb

Well, my Sports Blurb article was put up on Thursday as promised however it is behind their Xtra Innings subscriber wall so you will have to pay a small fee to read it. There is a lot of great content behind the wall so its well worth it. Don't worry, everything else I do here will still be free! Just one article every week will be for cost a one time payment and its not even to me! What a bumer.

Anyway, I have been sick recently and that is why I have had very little new content posted and that will continue until I feel better which will hopefully be tomorrow or monday. Thanks for understanding.

Papelbon to the Pen

In the biggest fantasy news of the spring, the Red Sox announced today that Jonathan Papelbon would be the closer again this year. He was being drafted as a starter in about every fantasy league so for those of you who tried to grab a potential Red Sox closer like Timlin or Pineiro, throw them back on the wire. If you haven't drafted yet, Papelbon is probably worth a look around the Wagner/Rivera area. If he can stay healthy he can certainly have value like Nathan and K-Rod but he has a very high chance of injury.

Baseball: Statistical Oddities Part 2

Part 2 of my look into statistics in baseball is finally here! If you missed Part 1 you should definately give it a look before you read Part 2. Part 1 focused on hitting and Part 2 focuses on pitching. The article will also be appearing on Lenny Melnick Fantasy Baseball and Roto Hog.

As always, I appreciate any comments, questions, critisism etc. that you have and would love to hear from you! You can shoot me an email or post a comment using the link below.

Finally, tomorrow will be my first weekly article on Sports Blurb. It's a good site and I will post up the link to that tomorrow. Also, don't forget to check out what the Fantasy Man has going on over at Fantasy Baseball Express. You should definately consider buying his Fantasy Man F.E.E.D. It's a lot of great information emailed straight to you for only 20$!

Speaking of which: You can now subscribe to recieve a nightly email from MLB Front Office with all of the articles from the previous day in it! It's easy to do and its FREE! Just enter your email in the bar on the right hand side.

Roto Hog, Myself and More!

If you haven't heard of Roto Hog yet WHERE HAVE YOU BEEN?!? It's sweeping the Fantasy Baseball World and well...YOU NEED TO JOIN. My referal code is: MLBFRONTOFFICE.

Anyway, no more shameless plugs. My article Statistical Oddities is the featured article up there right now. I posted this article on here a little while ago and it was also featured on LennyMelnickFantasyBaseball.com but if you missed it, you can see it on Roto Hog right now. In addition, I will be releasing part 2 of the article tomorrow. It will appear on here, LennyMelnickFantasyBaseball.com and Roto Hog as well. Although it may not appear on Roto Hog or Lenny's Site tomorrow, it will be up there soon.

In addition, I'd like to thank those of you who have signed up for the nightly MLB Front Office email and for those of you who haven't yet its not too late! Just enter your email in the space on the right hand side bar and your ready to start recieving the email.

Also this Thursday will be my 1st weekly article at sportsblurb.com. The article is about Head 2 Head leagues which is a vastly underrepresented type of play in the expert world. I'm here to change that! I will post the link to that once the article is up.

Thanks for listening to all of my plugs, even though I promised I wouldn't.

Tiered Rankings

Positional Rankings are a great way to compile your rankings to decide when scarcity in a position is running short. However, in order to fully utilize these rankings, you must break them up into tiers. Here you can find my tiered positional rankings.

How did I come up with these ranks?

I first took my top 250 players list and sorted by position. I then broke the positions up into groups based on their numerical value only. Group A was players 1-20 (aka rounds 1 and 2 in a ten team league), Group B was players 21-40 (rounds 3 and 4), Group C was players 41-60 (rounds 5 and 6), Group D was players 61-100 (rounds 7-10), Group E was players 101-150 (rounds 11-15), Group F was players 151-200 (rounds 16-20) and Group G was players 201-250 (rounds 21-25). After dividing players up by numerical value, I went through and made any minor adjustments I thought were necessary to finalize the groups.

Why is this valuable?

Not only is it helpful on draft day to spot when a position is running dry, but it is a helpful tool to analyze your own player rankings. If two players that are considered to be fairly equal value have vastly different status in the groups then you know you need to fix something. In this exercise, I was using the rankings that I completed long enough ago that there has been a lot of movement since then. In this case, I did not make any changes to my list because this is just to demonstrate how valuable grouping your players can be. The only thing I did was to remove Taylor Tankersley because it does not appear he is the front runner for the closers job (he appeared at # 229 in my original rankings). Rankings will also help you not reach for players too early.

What do the groupings show?

These groups confirm many of the things I have been stressing all season long. The first thing that jumped out at me was the catcher scarcity. The whole year I have been stressing to not take your catcher too early. As you will see, that is backed up by the groups. The next is my 2B theory. Utley is the only player in Tier A, there is no one in Tier B, 2 2B in Tier C and then everyone else follows. It just goes to show that if you don’t draft Utley, you might as well wait as long as possible to get your 2B. The next note-able point is that the SS groupings are exactly as I would expect them to be. They are front heavy and then tail off significantly after group B. If you don’t get a SS from group C or higher, you are going to struggle from the SS position. Again, my waiting on 3B strategy was re-confirmed. There are 5 3B in group A and B combined, 0 in group C and then 10 in groups D and E. On the pitching side, Santana is the only Tier A starter and no RP appears before Tier C with a lot of value at the end of the draft in both the SP and RP groups.

I strongly suggest that you take your own rankings and break them up into tiers. It will not only help you on draft day but it will help you become a much more knowledgeable fantasy player. Grouping players is something that experts have been doing for a long time but many regular fantasy players don’t do because they don’t recognize its importance. It takes less than an hour and can help you get much more value out of your draft.

Again, the Groupings can be found here and as always, please post any questions or comments or feel free to email them to me.

Could Joe DiMaggio Play Again?

There is an interesting article over at Yahoo! Sports. You'll have to read it to believe it. What if Joe DiMaggio was alive and well? Could he play SS? Would he play for UNLV and hope that he could somehow find a way into the Pros? Check it out.

Young Pitchers

Two young pitchers that many people were high on this year will not be starting the in the rotation. Chad Billingsley of the Dodgers will be starting the year in the bullpen and Matt Garza of the Twins will be starting the season (most likely) in AAA. Both of these pitchers will probably be starting by the end of the year and are still worth a very late round draft pick but lower your expectations for them slightly. Drop them down a round or two.

In focus: Lance Berkman

There is an interesting article about Lance Berkman over at Yahoo. The intent of the article seems to be to mix humor and facts to portray Berkman as very underrated; however, to me, it seems to portray Berkman as lazy and unmotivated. Take a look at it and tell me what you think.

Either way, he is a very valuable fantasy commodity, even if he doesn't provide many steals. A late 1st round or early second round selection is certainly warranted. Still, this article intrigued me and I wanted to see what everyone else thought.

MLB Front Office Via Email

As you will notice, you can now get all of the MLB Front Office articles emailed straight to you! Don't hesitate to sign up for this amazing service...ITS FREE! Just enter your email in the box on the right hand side of the page and your ready to start recieving great fantasy insights by Brad Stewart in your inbox!

Top 150 Prospects: 1-25

For the past couple days I have been unveiling my top 150 prospect list. Today. the rankings will conclude with players 1-25. Please note: that these rankings are for long term success, not immediate impact and only Players with NO major league experience qualified for this list. So players like Delmon Young and Matt Garza who still qualify as rookies will not make an appearance. Also, I may have missed a couple AB or IP in the majors in which case I appologize. As always if you have any questions or comments feel free to email me.

1. ALEX GORDON, 3b, Royals
2. PHILIP HUGHES, rhp, Yankees
3. HOMER BAILEY, rhp, Reds
4. BRANDON WOOD, ss, Angels
5. JAY BRUCE, of, Reds
6. CAMERON MAYBIN, of, Tigers
7. EVAN LONGORIA, 3b, Devil Rays
8. JUSTIN UPTON, of, Diamondbacks
9. YOVANI GALLARDO, rhp, Brewers
10. ANDREW McCUTCHEN, of, Pirates
11. TIM LINCECUM, rhp, Giants
12. REID BRIGNAC, ss, Devil Rays
13. RYAN BRAUN, 3b, Brewers
14. BILLY BUTLER, of, Royals
15. FERNANDO MARTINEZ, of, Mets
16. JOSE TABATA, of, Yankees
17. ANDY LaROCHE, 3b, Dodgers
18. ADAM MILLER, rhp, Indians
19. CARLOS GONZALEZ, of, Diamondbacks
20. SCOTT ELBERT, lhp, Dodgers
21. LUKE HOCHEVAR, rhp, Royals
22. CLAYTON KERSHAW, lhp, Dodgers
23. COLBY RASMUS, of, Cardinals
24. NICK ADENHART, rhp, Angels
25. JEFF NIEMANN, rhp, Devil Rays

Bill Hall Article

Over at Yahoo, there is a good article about Bill Hall. It doesn't have a whole lot of fantasy relevance but it has a nice personal touch on it. The article compares Hall to Michael Young. As some people may have forgotten, when Young was called up he was also a utility player. Actually, he came up as a 2B and when the Rangers traded A-Rod, they asked Young to move to SS to make room for Soriano, well Young has blossomed into a good SS and Soriano, well, he's in CF now. Anyway, Hall will be starting the season as the Brewers CF after playing almost all IF positions last year. He is still being drafted as a SS in Fantasy Leagues and hopefully he can play enough at SS this year to retain eligibility -- he's the 4th SS on the team now.

One noteable quote to leave you with before I send you to check out the article for yourself:

'"Everybody knew I could hit home runs eventually," [Hall] said. "I used to try. Last year I stopped trying and started letting it happen."'

Isn't that how it always happens?

Fantasy Baseball: Keys to Winning

These are the ten most important steps to winning your fantasy baseball league. So many times people think an excellent draft or an excellent trade alone can win you the league, THIS IS NOT THE CASE! The list is in order of importance, for the most part.

1. STAY ACTIVE. 5 minutes of fantasy a day keep last place far far away. You need to stay on top of who is starting and who has off days and you need to follow the free agent pool religously. The teams that win leagues are the teams that find that hidden gem before anyone else does.

2. The Draft. This is the starting point for the whole season. It is the single most important moment and if you don't prepare correctly you are doomed to finish in the bottom half.

3. Know your league. Know the scoring system and roster requirements like the back of your hand. Knowing the other owners favorite teams and tendencies is also a must. Know when you owners come online, eat, drink, sleep and have sex. (note: MLB Front Office does not promote having sex before you are married)

4. Trading. Don't get ripped off and know your stuff. You don't need to make amazing trades to win your league, just know your stuff and don't let other managers rip you off. Know the person you are trading with and who their favorite players are. Also, don't trade just to make a trade. Know what you want and don't trade unless you get it.

5. Sell high and buy low. After the first month if a star player is struggling ask the owner what he wants for him, it may be much less than you would think. On the other hand, if a player is performing much higher than usual, sell him high (Think Chris Shelton). Some perenial slow starters: Aramis Ramirez, Johan Santana.

6. Follow the minor leagues. If a player is about ready to come up, take a chance on him. He may become the next Jered Weaver. Some players to keep an eye on this season: Ryan Sweeney, Alex Gordon (if he doesn't start the year in the majors), Phil Hughes and Homer Bailey (although they may already be owned in your league).

7. Know players stats. If a player has a tendency to go through long slumps and come back better than before after it, bench the player but don't drop him. Know the players past, and not just the previous season.

8. If it ain't broken don't fix it. Too many times people get bored and try to change their team when its not needed. Don't fall prey to boredom, just flip on the TV, kick back and watch some sports center. Chances are there will be a nice segment on whether Pete Rose did or did not -- as there have been for the past 20 years!

9. Follow your team, and everyone else's team. You have to know who you have to beat in order to beat them. Are they speed deprived? How many closers do they have? Could one trade put you over the top? What category do you have to improve in?

10. HAVE FUN. Fantasy Baseball isn't your job, its FOR FUN. If you aren't having fun you will have a higher tendency to miss out on something or someone important.

Mail Bag

I recently recieved a good question from Robert Codey and I thought I would post it here.

Question: Alright, drafting in the first year of a keeper league, keeping 5 for an unlimited time. The league has 10 teams, 5X5, Head to Head. I have the #2 pick in the draft. I'm thinking Arod is my best bet.

Arod is in, what amounts to, a contract year with his ability to opt out of his contract. I think we can expect a big year from him.

My other option, Soriano, just signed a big contract (5 years, I believe?). When I take that into consideration, along with the fact that he had a drop in production his first year in Texas, and I suspect he might have a drop in production his first year in Chicago as well....

I feel Arod is my best choice at #2.

I've contemplated taking Utley...he's had a good, consistent, three year arc to get to last year's numbers, so I don't think he's a flash in the pan. In a keeper league, he's the youngest of the three, and might produce just as good as those two, but at a much more depleted position (2B). I'm not aware of Utley's contract situation, but if I found out this was a contract year, that would put it over the top and convince me he was my #2.

I was just interested to hear your opinion on the matter, and your opinion of my opinion.

So what are your thoughts.

MLB Front Office Answer: Reyes has to be considered because of his age. In fact, I would probably take Reyes. He represents a young player with the potential to steal 80 bases, yep I said it. 80 bases! He also offers a good amount of power and a good average and he will get the runs because he plays for one of the best lineups. However, if you are dead set against taking reyes, I think you should also consider Howard.

Let me know how it turns out.

The Indians

Over at MLB Trade Rumors Tim Dierkes has a team round up for the Indians which is mostly all of their salary commitments. A couple of other notes he makes however are quite interesting. Most of you know that the Indians are one of my favorite teams this year and I think they can be a World Series Contender, as does Tim.

He notes:

- The Indians infield probably took a hit defensively but an improved season from Jhonny Peralta could balance that out.

- The Offense will be top 5 in the AL again and if Hafner can put together a full season they could be second to the Yankees.

- The Pitching can put together a top 5 rotation in the AL this year and is certainly top 7-10.

- The Bullpen is the biggest question going into the season with Joe Borowski as the closer.

- The team has a ton of depth and will have to leave some major league ready talent in AAA to start the year.

Credit Mark Shapiro for assembling such a good and young team for only 60MM.

Tim Kuda Sports Radio

Tim Kuda has a sports radio show that you should check out. It looks pretty good and Mike Greco from Fantasy Baseball Guy will be a guest on Tuesday the 20th of March. The show normally airs Tuedays, Thursday and Saturday at 10:30 pm central but you can listen to past shows any time on TimKuda.com or blogtalkradio.com/thetimkudashow. I may be a guest in the future and if that works out I'll let you know.

Comments

I like hearing what you guys have to say. Leave a comment on an article or shoot me an email. I really enjoy reading feedback. Feel free to rip me apart!...Or bow on your knees and praise me!

Boston's Tenth Man

I recieved an email today from the owner of Boston's Tenth Man. MLB Front Office is currently the best blog affiliate they have. WOOOHOOO! More of you have clicked on the banner on the right hand side than anybody from any other blog! Way to go guys! But lets not stop there, while your over there BUY SOMETHING! Obviously don't click on it just to click on it but if you are ever looking for a Jersey, they sell them at up to 60% off retail price. If you haven't checked out Boston's Tenth Man yet, you definately should.

Curt Schilling Blog

The next generation of fantasy experts is certainly in the blogging community. Many baseball players are blogging as well. The newest member to join the list of bloggers is Curt Schilling. You can find his blog here. He recently explained the situation between himself and the Red Sox and is worth taking a look at.

Sleeper Alert: Brian Stokes, RP, TB

Although the Tampa Bay closer situation is probably one to avoid all together, Tim Dierkes over at Roto Authority has an article up that mentions Stokes, Orvella, and Al Reyes as possible canidates. If you are in a very deep league or in an AL only league this is relevant, otherwise you should probably avoid it all together because nothing is a sure thing and there probably won't be many save situations in Tampa Bay to begin with.

Limited Content

Starting tomorrow, there will be limited content on the website. I will hopefully get the final 25 players on the prospect list but I will be out of town until Monday. I appologize for any inconvenience and I will make it up with extra content the following week.

Top 150 Prospects: 26-50

For the past two days I have been unveiling my top 150 prospect list. Today. the rankings will continue with players 26-50. Please note: that these rankings are for long term success, not immediate impact and only Players with NO major league experience qualified for this list. So players like Delmon Young and Matt Garza who still qualify as rookies will not make an appearance. Also, I may have missed a couple AB or IP in the majors in which case I appologize. As always if you have any questions or comments feel free to email me.


26. JACOBY ELLSBURY, of, Red Sox
27. JARROD SALTALAMACCHIA, c, Braves
28. HUNTER PENCE, of, Astros
29. FELIX PIE, of, Cubs
30. CHUCK LOFGREN, lhp, Indians
31. JOEY VOTTO, 1b, Reds
32. FRANKLIN MORALES, lhp, Rockies
33. DARIC BARTON1b, Athletics
34. CLAY BUCHHOLZ, rhp, Red Sox
35. TROY PATTON, lhp, Astros
36. DEXTER FOWLER, of, Rockies
37. CARLOS GOMEZ, of, Mets
38. CARLOS CARRASCO, rhp, Phillies
39. DONALD VEAL, lhp, Cubs
40. JEFF CLEMENT, c, Mariners
41. ERIC HURLEY, rhp, Rangers
42. JOHN DANKS, lhp, White Sox
43. IAN STEWART, 3b, Rockies
44. TRAVIS SNIDER, of, Blue Jays
45. TREVOR CROWE, of, Indians
46. JACOB McGEE, lhp, Devil Rays
47. BILL ROWELL, 3b, Orioles
48. BRANDON ERBE, rhp, Orioles
49. TRAVIS BUCK, of, Athletics
50. HUMBERTO SANCHEZ, rhp, Yankees

Buy it or Sell it: Spring Training

"Spring Training, it means baseball is right around the corner. It also means that players have lost weight, gained weight, added another pitch, corrected their vision and so on. The question is what to listen to and what not to listen to. There is a fine line between a player actually improving and the teams PR staff saying the player improved. If you looked on the Chicago Cubs website right now..."

The rest of the article is available here. As always, all questions and comments should be directed to my email or posted in the comments section. I get them either way! Enjoy!

Top 150 Prospects: 51-100

Yesterday I began unveiling my top 150 prospect rankings with rankings 101-150. Today. the rankings will continue with players 51-100. Please note: that these rankings are for long term success, not immediate impact and only Players with NO major league experience qualified for this list. So players like Delmon Young and Matt Garza who still qualify as rookies will not make an appearance. Also, I may have missed a couple AB or IP in the majors in which case I appologize. As always if you have any questions or comments feel free to email me.


51. CHRIS VOLSTAD, rhp, Marlins
52. KEVIN SLOWEY, rhp, Twins
53. MATT HARRISON, lhp, Braves
54. WILL INMAN, rhp, Brewers
55. ELVIS ANDRUS, ss, Braves
56. PHILIP HUMBER, rhp, Mets
57. BRAD LINCOLN, rhp, Pirates
58. ELIJAH DUKES, OF, Devil Rays
59. WADE DAVIS, rhp, Devil Rays
60. NOLAN REIMOLD, OF, Orioles
61. CESAR CARILLO, P, Padres
62. GIO GONZALEZ, P, White Sox
63. CHRIS PARMELEE, of/1b, Twins
64. NEIL WALKER, 3b, Pirates
65. HANK CONGER, C, Angels
66. ANTHONY SWARZAK, P, MIN
67. JAIME GARCIA, lhp, Cardinals
68. JOBA CHAMBERLAIN, rhp, Yankees
69. MICHAEL BOWDEN, rhp, Red Sox
70. KORY CASTO, 3B, Nationals
71. MICAH OWINGS, rhp, Diamondbacks
72. ERIC CAMPBELL, 3B, Braves
73. KURT SUZUKI, c, Athletics
74. THOMAS DIAMOND, P, Rangers
75. SEAN GALLAGHER, P, Cubs
76. SEAN RODRIGUEZ, SS, Angels
77. GREG REYNOLDS, rhp, Rockies
78. BRANDON MORROW, rhp, Mariners
79. GABY HERNANDEZ, P, Marlins
80. DREW STUBBS, of, Reds
81. TYLER CLIPPARD, P, Yankees
82. DEOLIS GUERRA, P, Mets
83. SCOTT LEWIS, P, Indians
84. GEORGE KOTTARAS, C, Red Sox
85. DANIEL BARD, rhp, Red Sox
86. WES BANKSTON, 1B/3B, Devil Rays
87. AARON THOMPSON, P, Marlins
88. BRENT LILLIBRIDGE, ss, Braves
89. JEREMY JEFFRESS, P, Brewers
90. GARRET OLSEN, P, Orioles
91. MARK ROGERS, P, Brewers
92. CHRIS MARRERO, OF, Nationals
93. SEAN WEST, lhp, Marlins
94. JOSE GARCIA, P, Marlins
95. JAVIER HERRERA, OF, Athletics
96. JONATHAN SANCHEZ, lhp, Giants
97. JONATHAN MELOAN, P, Dodgers
98. JIMMY BARTHMEIER, P, Astros
99. JESUS FLORES, C, Nationals
100. JOSE ARREDONDO, P, Angels

Mail Bag

Question: I have three open slots on my 10 team NL only keeper league. For those slots I have three players who I could keep at near their value in the open market (i.e. if I threw them back, I'd probably price them about what I can freeze them for.) So the question is: Is it better to have roster flexibility or cost certainity? Assume a league with smart owners who will be prepared. This means there are minimal hopes for "sleeper" candidates going undetected.


MLBFO Answer: In order to fully evaluate the question, I would need to know the specifics, however, on the surface the solution seems fairly simple. If you are sure that you could get these players back for around the price you have them at now or cheaper if you tossed them back, then by all means toss them back and see if you can get a better value in the open market. However, if you feel there is a chance that these players will go for significantly more than you currently hold them at or if you feel that under no circumstance could you improve your team by tossing them back, then hold onto them.

I hope this helps Kirk! If anyone else has a question please feel free to email it to me and I will get back ASAP!

Sleeper Alert: Chris Iannetta

The buzz around the Fantasy Community right now is that Javy Lopez has been released and will likely retire unless the Braves want to sign him as a backup. However, thats not the big news. The BIG news is that this opens up a world of opportunity for Chris Iannetta, who will now likely be able to get 450 AB.

In the first couple mock drafts I did, I was found frequently selecting catchers in the mid-range like Michael Barrett, Kenji Johjima, and Ramon Hernandez. However, recently I have found myself waiting longer and longer to select a catcher and counting on players like Paulino and Iannetta to get me just a little positive value from the catcher spot.

It used to be that if you could find a catcher that wouldn't hurt you, you would take him in the earlier rounds. It is now becoming more common to find a catcher that will give you 10 home runs and won't kill your average. Iannetta and Paulino will be bargains in the last 2 or 3 rounds of the draft this year and I suggest waiting until then to grab your catcher.

Spring Training Notes: NL Central

A couple of happenings that could impact your fantasy leagues:

- Jason Isringhausen has been pitching well this spring training and looks fully healthy. Do not hesitate to take him as the closers start to dry up, it won't be long before other people realize he is healthy.

- Jeff Samardzija was returned along with about a dozen players to the minor leagues. One player that didn't go back down was Felix Pie. Although he is not expected to make the team out of camp, if the team sees him fit and can unload Jacque Jones, they may do just that.

- Mark Prior will make a minor league start to try and gain more velocity. Piniella thinks it is closely related to his confidence and is not worried.

- Ryan Theriot and Rich Hill officially made spots on the team. Hill will become the #4 starter and Theriot will be a backup at 2b and SS and may even try a couple games in the OF. He is worth a late round pick in NL-Only leagues.

- Rickie Weeks has been struggling and it may be due to a sore wrist that has been bothering him.

- It's not good to be a young Pirates pitcher right about now. Maholm and Gorzelanny both got roughed up in recent starts although it shouldn't effect their status with the team. Both players are worth a look in deeper leagues.

Sleeper Alert: Dustin Hermanson, RP, CIN

Hermanson, recently signed by the Reds, becomes the immediate front runner for saves this season. During the White Sox incredible 2005 run, Hermanson racked up 34 saves with a 2.04 ERA. If Hermanson wins the closer job, I think it is reasonable to expect 20-25 saves with a 3.80 ERA. Don't buy into Hermanson before guys like Dempster, Torres or Isringhausen but he is worth a last round flier pick.

Top 150 Prospects: 101-150

Today I will begin unveiling my top 150 prospect rankings with rankings 101-150. Please note: that these rankings are for long term success, not immediate impact and only Players with NO major league experience qualified for this list. So players like Delmon Young and Matt Garza who still qualify as rookies will not make an appearance. As always if you have any questions or comments feel free to email me.

101. MARK PAWELEK, P, Cubs
102. TRAVIS WOOD, P, Reds
103. BRETT SINKBEIL, rhp, Marlins
104. MITCH TALBOT, P, Devil Rays
105. ANGEL VILLALONA, 3B, Giants
106. JOAQUIN ARIAS, SS, Rangers
107. EDDY MARTINEZ-ESTEVE, OF, Giants
108. RYAN TUCKER, P, Marlins
109. BLAKE DeWitt, 3B, Dodgers
110. NATE SCHIERHOLTZ, OF, Giants
111. CHRIS LUBANSKI, OF, Royals
112. SCOTT MATHIESON, P, Phillies
113. TYLER COLVIN, OF, Cubs
114. JEFF SAMARDZIJA, rhp, Cubs
115. PEDRO BEATO, rhp, Orioles
116. MATT MOSES, 3B, Twins
117. UBALDO JIMENEZ, rhp, Rockies
118. J.R. TOWLES, C, Astros
119. MATT ALBERS, rhp, Astros
120. RADHAMES LIZ, P, Orioles
121. BRIAN BARTON, of, Indians
122. LANCE BROADWAY, P, White Sox
123. ERIC PATTERSON, 2B, Cubs
124. ALEXI CASILLA, 2B/SS, Twins
125. CEDRIC HUNTER, OF, Padres
126. DELLIN BETANCES, rhp, Yankees
127. JASON HAMMEL, P, Devil Rays
128. DALLAS TRAHERN, P, Tigers
129. ERIC DUNCAN, 1B/3B, Yankees
130. COLLIN BALESTER, rhp, Nationals
131. RICKY ROMERO, P, Blue Jays
132. LORENZO CAIN, Brewers
133. TONY BUTLER, P, Mariners
134. EMILIO BONIFACIO, 2B, Diamondbacks
135. MATT MALONEY, P, Phillies
136. NEFTALI FELIZ, P, Braves
137. JAIR JURRGENS, P, Tigers
138. KYLE DRABEK, P, Phillies
139. BRANDON JONES, OF, Braves
140. ANDREW SONNANSTINE, P, Devil Rays
141. CHRIS CARTER, 1B, Diamondbacks
142. LARS ANDERSON, 1B, Red Sox
143. JOHNNY CUETO, P, Reds
144. BRIAN ANDERSON, P, Giants
145. JAKE FOX, C, Cubs
146. JOE KOSHANSKY, 1B, Rockies
147. JEREMY HELLICKSON, P, Devil Rays
148. MATT WALKER, P, Devil Rays
149. CHRIS NOWAK, 3B, Devil Rays
150. DUSTIN EVANS, P, Braves

Sleeper Alert: Brad Thompson, RP, STL

With Adam Wainwright's move to the rotation. It appears Brad Thompson has fallen into the 8th inning role. He is not going to overpower anyboy but if he can continue to make people ground out, he is going to be useful in leagues that count holds and could be worth a late round flier in NL only leagues because the Cardinals, at this point, can't afford to pull Wainwright or Looper out of the rotation. If a trade changes that scenerio, toss him back into the FA pool. But for now, he is worth a late round gamble.

5 Painless Questions

I would really appreciate it if everyone could answer 5 simple questions for me. It won't take more than 5 minutes of your time and will hopefully help me improve MLB Front Office and offer more of what you are looking for.

1. Where did you find out about MLB Front Office?
2. What are you looking for in a fantasy advice website?
3. What do you need that other sites don't have?
4. What attracts you to MLB FO?
5. Would you like it if MLB FO brought in an additional writer or two?

Thanks, please email me your answers. It is greatly appreciated. If that link does not work for you, you can find the email on the right hand side bar.

Mailbag Time

Lets do a mailbag! Email me your questions and I will answer ASAP.

I also wanted to take this opportunity to welcome any new readers that have found MLB Front Office via the link on the front page of Roto Hog. I hope you stick around for a while and be sure to email me an questions/comments/critism etc..

Roto Hog quick hits

This morning I participated in the first ever Rotohog draft. Below are a couple of quick hits. I will put together a more detailed analysis later. If you have any specific questions regarding the rules of the game, feel free Email RotoHog. If you have any questions regarding the draft or strategy, feel free to email me and I will do my best to answer them.

The biggest surprise of the draft was Johan Santana going undrafted. I wasn't planning on drafting him because I plan on rotating pitchers and batters through a platoon situation. Carpenter plays on day 1 so I drafted him.

My first round selection was Delmon Young. He was the best value for the money in my opinion. He could rack up 800 points for only 2 dollars.

Pujols didn't go until the 7th or 8th round.

Overall, the strategy behind this game is to get the best value for your money. To me that meant buying into the high upside players early. If all of the high upside players come together, I am fairly confident I can finish in the top 100 overall and have a shot at the 100,000.

Closing in on Closers

Many, many picks at the end of the draft every year are spent picking up those guys who might take over the closer job at somepoint during the season and provide those much needed saves to boost your team to the top. The following list will highlight the current closer and if relevant, the closer in waiting. Use the following key to read the list: GREEN = High Security RED = Low Security WHITE = Neutral

Yankees - Mariano Rivera
Blue Jays - BJ Ryan
Orioles - Chris Ray - If he falters Danys Baez would probably take over
Devil Rays - Seth McClung - After him there is a whole slew of unworthy players, no one draftable.
Red Sox - Mike Timlin - No Red Sox closer is draftable although by the end of the year Craig Hansen should be getting the saves.
Twins - Joe Nathan
Tigers - Todd Jones - Jones will probably be the 1st to lose his job, the winner is: Joel Zumaya
White Sox - Bobby Jenks - Jenks has a fairly firm grip but Mike MacDougal has a little experience closing and will get the call if Jenks gets injured or bombs.
Royals - Octavio Dotel - Has a decent grip if only because there is no one else worthy on the team
Indians - Joe Borowski - Borowski was the happiest man on the Indians after Foulke unexpectedly retired. The job is his as long as he maintains around last years numbers.
Angels - Fransisco Rodriguez - The Job is his but if he gets injured, Shields can rack up the saves.
Athletics - Houston Street
Mariners - JJ Putz
Rangers - Eric Gagne - Otsuka is worth a look on draft day, who knows how long Gagne will be able to stay healthy.
Mets - Billy Wagner - The job is Wanger's unless he gets hurt and if he does Duaner Sanchez will be worth a high waiver priority but not a draft pick.
Phillies - Tom Gordon - Myers offered to close if he is need but that wouldn't make any sense at all. The Job is Gordons.
Braves - Bob Wickman - Wickman is solid but Mike Gonzalez is spectacular. Wickman will be on a very short leash. Rafael Soriano also has an outside shot at some saves.
Marlins - Kevin Gregg - Tankersley, Petit and Owens are all second in line with the dark horse canidates being Sergio Mitre and Ricky Nolasco.
Nationals - Chad Cordero - Cordero is the closer unless he gets traded (in which case he will close for whoever that may be...Boston?!?) if Cordero is traded Jon Rauch will get the call but there won't be many save opportunities coming out of Washington this year anyway.
Cardinals - Jason Isringhausen - The obvious choice to back Isringhausen up is Wainwright but that would require a trade for a starter.
Astros - Brad Lidge - It is Lidge's job to lose and if he falters, Wheeler will be waiting right there to pick up where he left off.
Reds - Weathers/Stanton - Avoid any reds closer at all costs.
Brewers - Fransisco Cordero - Cordero has it locked up for now, Turnbow is probably the backup.
Pirates - Soloman Torres - If torres falters, Matt Capps will be the go to guy, and he might never give it back up.
Cubs - Ryan Dempster - Wood and Howry will get a chance if Dempster pitches like last season. Wuertz has good stuff and could have an outside chance.
Padres - Trevor Hoffman - It is Hoffman's gig until he leaves, even if it is only out of repspect for the all-time saves leader. Linebrink is of course the very servicable backup and a trade may propel him into the gig sooner rather than later.
Dodgers - Takashi Saito - Johnathin Broxton will most likely be the closer by the end of the year and is certainly the long term solution in Los Angeles.
Giants - Armando Benitez - Ew. No one in SF is worthy of a pick, although, Brian Anderson may be thrown into the role late in the year, and he may be solid, he racked em up in single A last year.
Diamondbacks - Jose Valverde - Valverde is worth a pick but anything after him is not
Rockies - Brian Fuentes - Fuentes should be able to get the job done but if he fails, the Rockies could hand the job over to my least favorite ex-cub LaTroy Hawkins.

A quick summary of draft-worthy setup men (in no particular order): Broxton (LAD), Linebrink (SD), Howry (CHC), Wood (CHC), Capps (PIT), Wheeler (HOU), Tankersley (FLA), Petit (FLA), Owens (FLA), Gonzalez (ATL), Otsuka (TEX), Zumaya (DET)

Closer situations to avoid: Giants, Reds, Red Sox...possibly: Marlins, Devil Rays

Most likely to lose their job by June 1st: Todd Jones, Armando Benitez, Kevin Gregg, Eric Gagne, Ryan Dempster, Mike Timlin (not including any platoon situations).

I hope these closer quick hits help you in the ever on-going quest for saves. As always Email Me any questions, comments, or other thoughts.

Battle of the Fantasy Gods Results

Well, better late then never...right? I finally have the results of the Battle of the Fantasy Gods. For the sake of time and sanity, I will not post the full results here but rather just go over some of the highlights and dissapointments and if you would like to view the full results you merely need to click the link above.

I need to start of by saying that the Fantasy Auctioneer software is great in concept but it lacks in execution. There were several glitches in the software that caused people to make bids that they did not want to. The biggest issue it caused me was winning Dye for 29 when I only meant to bid 17. If you have ever used this software before you know that it is very frustrating and for those who haven't I a sure you can imagine.

Looking at my results, it may be apparent that in the past, I have had minimal experience with auction drafts. Based on past drafts I have done and auction draft research I did, prior to the draft, I concluded that I would not pay more than 30 $ for any one person. I think that this strategy could have been executed well had I not had that 29 $ Jermaine Dye bid. If I was to go back and redo the draft, I think I would spend a little more in the beginning and save a lot toward the end to play the end of the draft. There were several steals at the end of the draft that I would have liked to have gotten but because of uncertainty with my budget, I passed on. In the end, I ended up with 10 $ extra because I grabbed A. Reyes for only 1 $ which I was shocked about and had allocated much more money towards him.

My offense, as you may have noticed is going to be very hit or miss. It has an incredible amount of upside but also could amount to very little. I have good speed on my team especially with Dave Roberts as my 5th OF, although I didn't want him, after Figgins went for 2 $ more than I was willing, I was forced to settle for Roberts. In hindsight, I probably should have spent a couple more dollars to get Figgins.

I am very satisfied with my pitching. Cain, Schmidt, Harang, and Bedard will all be very solid starters and should get enough strike outs to make up for a lackluster Chien-Ming Wang, but I desperately needed his wins as none of my previous four starters play on particullarly high powered offenses, with the exception of maybe Bedard (we'll have to see what the Orioles can do). On the RP side, I was happy to grab Jenks, Fuentes and Lidge although I overpaid for Jenks, at the time it seemed like the right thing to do. I was very happy to be able to grab Wheeler in the reserves draft because I am sure Lidge will be on a very short leash this year and he is next in line.

Some of my favorite value picks:
1. J. Crede - 4 $
2. Schmidt - 8 $
3. Wang - 5 $
4. Reyes - 1 $
5. Fuentes - 4 $

Some of my worst value picks:
1. J. Dye - 29 $ (software glitch)
2. B. Jenks - 15 $
3. R. Furcal - 28 $ (anticipated getting Hanley for 28 but he ended up going for 32)

Overall, I think my team will be able to compete. If my offense all comes together, I will be able to make a run at 1st place even though J. Dye screwed me over. I think with some smart trades and/or waiver wire additions, my team could end up being very solid. But if my offense doesn't come together as anticipated then my team could end up finishing towards the bottom of the league.

Top 3 make or break players:
1. Prince Fielder - Anticipating 35-40 HR from him, if he hits less than 30, my offense will be doomed
2. Adrian Gonzalez - Anticipating 30-35 HR with a .290-.300 AVG...same deal as Fielder
3. Chris Young - 20/20 potential player, if he doesnt reach even 15/15 I will struggle

Honorable mention: Jeff Francoeur (power), Cain/Bedard/Reyes

Questions? Comments? Shoot me an email!

In Focus: Chicago Cubs Rotation

As a Cubs fan, one situation I have been following very closely is the rotation battles going on in Mesa for the Cubs. A little earlier, I mentioned Mark Prior as a potential sleeper. I am now going to toss his name out there as a player to avoid. His fastball is currently sitting at 87-88 MPH and he has been getting smashed against. He has become way to cautious and it appears that some more time in AAA will be necessary. As it stands now, it looks like the Cubs rotation will be as follows:

1. Carlos Zambrano
2. Ted Lilly
3. Jason Marquis
4. Rich Hill
5. Wade Miller

I have also heard rumors that Miller and Marquis may flip spots. Now that we have decided the rotation, the question is raised. How well will they do? I want to start of by saying that this rotation should be a significant improvement over the inconsistant rotation of last year. Not only were the pitchers inconsistant last year, but who was pitching were inconsistant.

Lets start with the one bright spot from last year: Carlos Zambrano. If you read my 2007 BOLD Predictions, you will know that Zambrano is my Cy Young pick for this year. So what will that take? I'd say it is reasonable to expect: 3.10 ERA, 210 K, 18 Wins.

The #2 Pitcher in the Rotation is Ted Lilly. He came over from the AL East, so his numbers should improve slightly from last year but Wrigley can be a tough field to pitch in, so what can you expect? 4.15 ERA, 160 K, 14 Wins.

The #3 starter will probably either be Jason Marquis or Wade Miller, lets take a closer look at Marquis. Marquis was horrible last year but has looked decent in spring training thus far. As we all know, Spring Training is not a very good representation of the season to follow, but he certainly looks much better than last year. Prediction: 4.50 ERA, 110 K, 12 Wins.

The #4 starter has become a favorite among many fantasy experts. Rich Hill had an amazing september. What can we expect? 4.00 ERA, 180 K, 14 wins...sound good?

The #5 starter for now looks like Wade Miller. I wouldn't expect a whole lot from him but for a #5 starter, if he wins and holds the job, I think he will be solid. Prediction: 4.50 ERA, 150 K, 12 Wins...that is if he can put together a full season of course.

So what happens to the rest of them? The Majority should find themselves in AAA including Mark Prior and last year rotation main stay Sean Marshall. The Iowa Cubs rotation this year should be the most experienced in the minors.

What will the offense need to do? By my estimations, if the offense can put together an average of 4.8 runs per game it should be good for about a .500 record. 5.0-5.1 runs per game and I think it will be enough to make the playoffs. For Comparison, the Cubs last year scored 4.2 Runs per game and the Cardinals scored 4.8 runs per game, the Yankees scored 5.75 runs per game last year and led the league in runs. The cubs were 3rd to last. The only teams worse: The Pirates and the Devil Rays. What lineups last year produced 5.0-5.1 runs per game? The Red Sox and The Dodgers both posted Runs per game of around 5.05.

Can they do it? Read my 2007 BOLD Predictions to find out what I think.

BOLD 2007 Predictions

The 2007 Season is quickly approaching which means it is time for MLB Front Office to unveil the 2007 Predictions. You can find them here. As always after reading, email me some feedback or merely post it in the comments section. I will get it either way!

WARNING: DANGEROUSLY BOLD!

Keeper Week

It is keeper week so I felt obligated to put something up tonight about it, because I have negelected to all week. I have spent the day preparing for 3 other leagues and I haven't had the time to write an article of my own but you should definately check out Steve Myerson's article about keepers. Steve is a fellow writer for Lenny Melnick Fantasy Baseball.

Roto Hog

Want to win $100,000 or various other prizes throughout the season...FOR FREE?!? Sign up for Roto Hog today and use MLB Front Office as your referal code. I know that you are probably sick of hearing about that but it is a great opportunity and I will be posting a fair amount of strategy specifically for that game over the course of the season. I just wanted to let everyone know that I will be participating in the FIRST draft of the season for Roto Hog -- which puts me at a significant advantage (I know, you don't need to tell me) but I decided to do this for 2 reasons:

1. So I can provide you all with draft strategy after I get some experience and prior to your draft!

and

2. Cause I am so damn anxious!

One word of caution: I advise you to schedule your draft toward the later part of the drafting time frame so you can know a little bit more during your draft.

MLB Xperience

I have been playing in a league for a while now called MLB Xperience. It is a dynasty league that used to be much like The Official MLB Front Office Dynasty League. However, this year we decided to re-draft and employ an auction strategy instead. The team cap is 100 million with 25 man rosters, and 5 x 5 stats but with holds instead of WHIP. Of course you keep your players year to year. We are getting close to done in the major league draft and are starting a huge minor league draft. 20 teams x 15 minor league picks = 300 Minor Leaguers! I am the Texas Rangers.

How do you think I've done so far? If you didn't notice, I went only for youth.

You can read the complete rules here.

Want To Play With The Experts?

There is one opening in The Official MLB Front Office Dynasty League that both myself and Mikey the Fantasy Man Play in, along with Disco and some other very talented players. We have already basically completed are regular draft and will be starting the minor league draft VERY SOON. If you think you are up to the challenge, fill out an application and if you are accepted, I will get back to you with more information shortly. I want to appologize in advance, I can not respond to every application.

Make sure you read the rules before applying and good luck!

Fantasy Roto Baseball

Are you looking for an alternative to Yahoo or ESPN? Fantasy Roto Baseball offers live scoring, auction, H2H, player contracts, PDA/Cell access, draft anytime, keepers, yr round access, replace dead owners anytime, league chat rooms and message boards and more for way way less than Yahoo Plus, CBS, TSN. Even Yahoo Free with live scoring costs $9.99 to their current $4.99 sale. It is a great alternative if you are crunched for money and the layout is really good as well. I may be playing some leagues over there this year so you should check it out and as always...tell them MLB Front Office sent you!

A Couple Of Notes

First, I have to appologize for the lack of content recently. I have been extremely busy but should be able to get a lot of stuff up in the coming weeks.

On a different note:

I participated in the first every FBE Battle Of The Fantasy Gods last night. The draft started at 7:20 CST and ended at about 12:20 CST. For a whopping total of 5 hours! I will have some analysis of that up either today or tomorrow.

Also, I just rounded off my top 150 Prospects list, so look foward to that next week during Prospect Week!

On the same subject, this week is keeper week and although I haven't been able to post very much, if you have a question please email it to me and I will get back to you ASAP and post it on here.

Also, please email me any suggestions for site improvement/expansion as detailed in a previous post. I'd also like to get to know all my readers better! Whether or not you have a suggestion, shoot me an email and introduce yourself, tell me how you found out about MLB Front Office as well!

Finally, make sure to sign up for Roto Hog's amazing fantasy game. Drafts begin next week and you can win $100,000 at no cost to you! Make sure you put MLB Front Office as the referal code. And check out a new Red Sox apparell website: Boston's Tenth Man. If you buy anything from them, make sure to put MLB Front Office as the referal code as well.


Look forward to some great content in the next couple weeks. Thats all for now.

The Boogey Blog

You may have noticed that I added a link to the right hand side bar with an interesting name...The Boogey Blog. Don't be fooled, it is a Fantasy Baseball Website. In fact, it is a very professional and informative blog that I enjoy reading. They were kind enough to feature MLB Front Office, so I thought I would return the favor. Check out The Boogey Blog.

Expansion

MLB Front Office is on the verge of expansion, sort of. Although the site expansion probably won't take place for another year or so, here at MLB Front Office we want to know exactly what you want on our website. What will make us different from any other fantasy website? What are the most important parts of a website for you? We want what the people want! Please send me an email and detail what you want in our expanded website. Along with expansion will be a growing fan base and additional writers but the readers we have right now will be valued very highly! Please let us know who you are, what you want and how you found out about MLB Front Office.

Thanks,

Brad Stewart

Battle of the Fantasy Gods

Well, its going to be a tough name to live up to but I've been invited to participate in the first ever Battle of the Fantasy Gods hosted by FBE. I will be competing against Mikey and other experts from around the internet in a 12 team, 260$ budget auction league. It is mixed 5x5 roto and is set to draft on March 8th. This will be a great chance to see how I match up against the Fantasy Man and some other great experts. Some other guys that I know who are participating in it include: Tim Dierkes of rotoauthority.com (he also runs everyone's favorite mlbtraderumors.com), Joe Ribando of insiderbaseball.com and Paul Greco of FantasyBaseballGuy.com. (This is just off the top of my head for the complete list go here.). Have any suggestions for me while I draft? Send them to me! and wish me luck!

Players to Avoid

It's sleeper week here at MLB Front Office and although the week is coming to a end, before I post my final sleeper wrap-up article, I thought it would be important to outline some players to avoid. These are players that I am not taking, or are only taking if they fall far enough in a draft. Each person has his own scenerio so please don't just look at the list and dismiss it, in order to get the full benefits of this article, you need to read the entire analysis for every player.

Adam Dunn - 40 HR are nice but his average will hurt you more than his homeruns will help you. In my top 250 list, he fell to 84. Some people are taking him as early as the 4th round, do not buy into the hype! Just because his name is Adam Dunn doesn't mean he is worth a high pick. If he is still there in the 7th or 8th round, it is time to consider taking him.

Chien-Ming Wang: His low strike out rate will kill you and it also suggests that his ERA may rise next year. He will always get you the wins because he plays for the Yankees but don't look at his Wins and take him for only that. If you have 2-3 200+ strike out guys on your team already, then feel free to nab him. For example, in a mock draft I did, I had Zambrano, Myers, Harang and Hill. 3 of those are 200+ K guys and Hill has the potential to be one, therefore, I nabbed Wang to round out my staff. However, Wang is by no means a front of the rotation fantasy pitcher.

Todd Helton - This is another case of a big name influencing you to cough up a lot of money or an early draft pick for him. Do not buy into the hype! Helton's HR have been consistantly decreasing since 2003 and he has only hit over 40 HR twice in his career anyway: *cough* roids *cough*. He will get you an average around .300 and probably 10-20 HR. I'm sorry, but no one naturally gets an average of .372 and hits 42 HR in a season, there is too big a correlation between HR and average to do that (see my Baseball Stastics article for more on that). He is also 33 and his career is dieing.

Roger Clemens - If he plays, as he probably will, it won't be until the beginning of July probably and it is not worth spending a bench spot on him until then unless you have a very deep bench in your league, probably 5 spots or more.

Pedro Martinez - Pedro won't be back until July at the earliest and even then he will be very rusty and will need a minor league outing or two. Don't expect Pedro to be pitching at his level until mid August at which point you can probably pick him up off the waiver wire.

Fransisco Liriano - He is missing the entire season. No questions asked. Do not pick him in hopes he will return early because he won't.

This is just a small sample of some players to avoid. There are also a number of closers that should be left alone until late on draft day because they don't have a very good chance at holding the role for very long, these closers include:

1. Todd Jones; 2nd in line: Joel Zumaya
2. Ryan Dempster; 2nd in line: Bob Howry/Kerry Wood
3. Eric Gagne; 2nd in line: Akinori Otsuka
4. Kevin Gregg; 2nd in line: Taylor Tankersley
5. Takashi Saito; 2nd in line: Jonathin Broxton
6. Bob Wickman; 2nd in line: Mike Gonzalez
7. Cincinati Closer?
8. Solomon Torres; 2nd in line: Matt Capps
9. Boston Closer?; 2nd in line: Jonathan Papelbon
10. Octavio Dotel; 2nd in line: ???

Gut Feelings: AL Style

Over at lennymelnickfantasybaseball.com, Lenny has been running a series on his gut feelings. After reading his, I decided I would give it a shot and after the season we will revisit what I said and see how my gut feelings did vs. how all the prediction systems like PECOTA did. Here are the AL feelings, you can read the NL here.

Yankees -
1. Arod and Abreu bounce back from down years
2. Matsui rebounds strong from injury

Red Sox -
1. Matsukaka performs very well but everyone is still let down by him
2. Coco Crisp bounces back
3. Papelbon, despite what the doctors say, closes.

Orioles -
1. Bedard finally really makes it big
2. Markakis has huge breakout year

Blue Jays -
1. After signing contract, Wells dissapoints

Devil Rays -
1. Baldelli explodes and Young thrives
2. Devil Rays are surprise team of the year

White Sox -
1. Dye regresses but not as far as everyone expected

Indians -
1. Hafner explodes
2. Peralta rebounds
3. Sizemore impresses
4. Westbrook plays for pay
5. Indians win AL Central

Twins -
1. Cuddyer regresses to old form
2. Twins are overall dissapointment

Tigers -
1. Sheffield rebounds well from injury, hits 30 HR
2. Tigers are dissapointment

Royals -
1. Alex Gordon starts season in majors and wins ROY

Mariners -
1. Jeff Weaver impresses even his critics and Cardinals regret non-signing

Angels -
1. Acquire a 3B at the deadline, again blocking super prospect Bradon Wood
2. Gary Mathews Jr. is a huge waste of money

Athletics -
1. Nick Swisher dissapoints
2. Zito-less staff struggles

Rangers -
1. Michael Young and Mark Teixeira rebound from off year
2. Gagne still can't put together a full season

Disagree? Question? Comment? Email me: stew0610@ameritech.net

Question

Q: Hey, love your blog. I read it daily. I'm in a mixed 10-team Head to Head league. I need to keep 8 players. I'm keeping ARod, Crawford, Hafner,Vernon Wells, McCann, Zambrano and KRod. I need to decide for the last keeper between Bonderman, Sabathia and Haren. Who would you keep?

Thanks, Joel from Rhode Island

A: Looks like you've got a nice group of keepers there Joel. In my top 250 rankings, Bonderman was ranked 74, Sabathia was ranked 68 and Haren came in at 104. So as you can see, the real question here is Bonderman or Sabathia.

Here's a little bit about each of the players: Bonderman is a 24 year old stud. He had over 200 strikeouts last year to complement 14 wins and an ERA of 4.08. If you league counts whip, his was 1.30. He did this in 214 IP. Sabathia has a little bit more time under his belt, he is currently 26. He had 172 strikeouts but he also spent some time on the DL and only managed 192.2 innings. His ERA was 3.22, he had 12 wins and a whip of 1.17.

I think that after reviewing the stats, the choice is clear: Sabathia. If you take his strikeouts throughout 214 IP he has 191 strike outs. It is very probable that he breaks 200 strikeouts this year. His ERA was also significantly better than Bonderman's ERA. Although I do think Bonderman's ERA could go down this year, I don't think it will drop much below 4, if at all. Expect Sabathia to stay off the DL this year and easily top 15 wins on a Cleveland team that, if you read my blog regularly, you know I love. I don't think 17 or 18 wins is out of the question.

I hope this helps!

-Brad Stewart

Anyone else have a question? Email me: stew0610@ameritech.net

Have a Question?

Have a question? Are you struggling to decide between two players? Want to know who wins in a trade? Do you disagree with me on something? Let you're voice be heard! Send me an email at: stew0610@ameritech.net for inclusion on this blog.

Free Agent Class

Over at MLB Trade Rumors, Tim Dierkes has put up a very important list of potential 2008 Free Agents. Make sure you check out this list as it will contain many players that will be "playing for pay" this year. Here are some guys on that list that I fully expect to play better than last year in order to get more money:

1. Carlos Zambrano - The cream of the amazing 2008 Free Agent class. Some have concerns about his arm holding up, but he will only be 27 during the 2008 season and by that time he may have one a Cy Young.

2. Curt Schilling - Has age finally caught up with him? I say: no. He has made it clear he will test free agency after the year. Which means, if he doesn't perform this year, he may regret no signing with the Red Sox already.

3. Bobby Abreu - Had a terrible year last year but now he is playing in the Yankees lineup and is in a contract year. All signs point towards a good season.

4. Andruw Jones - It's hard to improve upon his numbers but I think his AVG will come up slightly and in the end I think the Braves new ownership will resign him.

5. Jake Westbrook - This guy is getting over looked in many fantasy drafts this year. If you are in a 12 man deeper draft, I encourage you to grab this guy in the last round or he is worth a 1$ pick at the end.

6. Marcus Giles - Had a terrible year last year but he is now united with his brother and should have his contract renewed if he plays well enough, which I assume he would like very much.

7. Scott Linebrink - He will want to become a closer when he leaves SD and pitching well this year is a must for that dream to be realized. Don't expect him to close this year for SD but if they trade him, which is definately possible, he will probably become a closer.

The first four players are people that need to be taken a little bit earlier due to them "playing for pay", while the last 3 are people to take a chance on in the last couple rounds or for a couple of bucks.

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Once you get there and sign up be sure to put MLB Front Office in the referal code section of the registration form. I will be teaming up with Roto Hog over the course of the season to provide fantasy strategy to all of their players!


I look forward to beating you!

- Brad Stewart

FBE Writers League

The Fantasy Baseball Express Writers league drafted last Monday and I appologize for the delays in getting my analysis up. It was a very interesting draft and I certainly don't agree with all of the picks but I'm going to focus more on my own team. Here are my results:

Round	Pick	Player	Position
1.	(12)	Carlos Lee	OF
2.	(15)	Travis Hafner	Util
3.	(38)	Roy Oswalt	SP
4.	(41)	Rafael Furcal	SS
5.	(64)	Gary Sheffield	1B,OF
6.	(67)	Scott Kazmir	SP
7.	(90)	Prince Fielder	1B
8.	(93)	Dontrelle Willis	SP
9.	(116)	Tom Gordon	RP
10.	(119)	Brad Lidge	RP
11.	(142)	Chipper Jones	3B
12.	(145)	Felipe López	SS
13.	(168)	Adam Wainwright	RP
14.	(171)	Nick Markakis	OF
15.	(194)	Anthony Reyes	SP
16.	(197)	Akinori Otsuka	RP
17.	(220)	Ryan Dempster	RP
18.	(223)	Conor Jackson	1B
19.	(246)	Adrián Béltre	3B
20.	(249)	Mike González	RP
21.	(272)	Coco Crisp	OF
22.	(275)	Matt Capps	RP
23.	(298)	Ronny Paulino	C
24.	(301)	Jake Westbrook	SP
25.	(324)	Mark DeRosa	2B,3B,OF

As you can see, I am probably a little bit too high on Carlos Lee this year. There may have been better talent available at that point but I am not really dissapointed with that pick.

The league settings were a little bit funky thus the large number of RP at the end. The roster positions were: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, UTIL, 5 SP, 5 RP, 6 BN. I usually prefer 5 OF, CI, MI, and 9 P. But I adjusted and came out with some guys who could be closers at the end of the year if the current closer struggles.

Here are my 3 favorite picks:

3. C. Jackson - Round 18. I really love this guy. I think he has a shot at 25 HR this year and to grab him for my bench this late in the draft was a steal.

2. F. Lopez - Round 12. It says he is only eligible at SS but a week into the season he will gain 2B eligibility because he is penciled in as the starting 2B for the Nationals. 40+ SB from a 2b is gold. I grabbed DeRosa in the last round to play 2B for a week before Lopez gains eligibility.

1. P. Fielder - Round 7. I have him ranked much higher than here and I truely expect him to hit atleast 35 HR. 40 HR is a certain possibility. I probably could have passed on him and tried to grab Adrian Gonzalez but I wasn't sure when he would go and didn't want to miss on both. I have often found myself selecting both of them, Prince at 1st and Adrian at UTIL or CI but because I had Hafner and there was no CI spot, I had to let Gonzalez fall much further than I would have liked.

Other Noteable picks:
C. Jones - 11th round
A. Beltre - 19th round
N. Markakis - 14th round

Questions? Comments? Email me! Stew0610@ameritech.net

Gut Feelings

Over at lennymelnickfantasybaseball.com, Lenny has been running a series on his gut feelings. After reading his, I decided I would give it a shot and after the season we will revisit what I said and see how my gut feelings did vs. how all the prediction systems like PECOTA did. Here is the NL and I will have the AL up a little bit later.

Cubs –
1. Kerry Wood Closes by end of year
2. Hill turns into a solid #2
3. Soriano does not repeat 40/40

Cardinals –
1. Reyes and Wainwright both succeed as starters
2. Rolen is finally healthy
3. Edmonds regress’s again

Astros –
1. Offense thrives but pitching beyond Oswalt tanks

Reds –
1. Arroyo and Phillips regress
2. The whole word knows who Encarnacion is after he’s done

Brewers –
1. Fielder smashes 40 HR
2. Sheets spends atleast 30 days on DL

Pirates –
1. LaRoche disappoints
2. Duke stays average
3. Sanchez bats another empty .325+ average

Mets –
1. Pedro returns in late July and leads Mets to wild card birth

Braves –
1. Miss playoffs again
2. New ownership resigns Jones.

Nationals –
1. Johnson returns in early June and is impressive
2. Zimmerman highlights horrible season

Marlins –
1. All pitchers regress except Olsen
2. Uggla Regresses
3. Hanley shines

Phillies –
1. Win NL East

Diamondbacks –
1. Johnson pitches for 3.50 ERA
2. Young players shine and the team competes

Padres –
1. Gonzalez hits 35 HR with .300 average

Dodgers –
1. Broxton is closer by end of year

Rockies –
1. Helton dealt at trade deadline

Giants –
1. Matt Cain outperforms Zito
2. Bonds breaks record and, after all the fuss, Selig is there.

Speaking of lennymelnickfantasybaseball.com, I have joined up with Lenny to provide my analysis to an even larger audience of fantasy maniacs. But I didn't stop there. I will be writing a weekly column on Head to Head leagues over at sportsblurb.com. The Column will start a couple weeks before the season starts and I will link to those articles on here.

AL Gut feelings should be up soon. Have a question or comment? Email Me: stew0610@ameritech.net