Mock Talk 1.0

Ok so as promised, I have the results from the mock draft that I did earlier today at MDC (Mock Draft Central). You can find the results here. Feel free to post any comments you would like in the comments section or via email at: stew0610@ameritech.net. I announced to everyone prior to the draft that I would be using the results for this purpose so there was no problems if anyone saw this. My team obviously is MLB Front Office. I'm not going to go over all of the picks but here are some of the highlights, surprises etc. etc.

First starting with my picks:

R1 P6 Johan Santana SP
This was my target pick all along. So I was happy to get him here.

R2 P7 Grady Sizemore OF

I wanted to get Carlos Lee here but settling for Sizemore doesn't upset me too much.
R3 P6 Hanley Ramirez SS
This was also my target pick so up to here the draft was going pretty well.
R4 P7 Carlos Zambrano SP

Having both Zambrano and Santana is lethal.
R5 P6 Jake Peavy SP

I wanted Johnny Damon here but he was taken and Peavy was the best overall player left in my opinion.
R6 P7 Prince Fielder 1B
I love this guy. 40 HR is not out of the question.
R7 P6 Joe Crede 3B

This was the pick that really screwed me up. I wanted Baldelli here but Zimmerman, Rolen and Jones went and I felt like I need to take a 3b.
R8 P7 Brett Myers SP

I actually didn't mean to take him here but I'm not too upset about it. Lots of very high K guys just like I like it.
R9 P6 Delmon Young OF

Probably wouldn't have taken him here if I had gotten Baldelli but he has a ton of upside.
R10 P7 Adrian Gonzalez 1B

I really like this guy too. Not quite the upside of Fielder but in one of my two UTIL spots he's money.
R11 P6 Nick Markakis OF
This may be a bit early but I was struggling for OF.
R12 P7 Michael Cuddyer 1B, OF

Kind of neutral on this pick. It is too early but he was the best available bat in my opinion.
R13 P6 Adam Wainwright SP

I've often seen Reyes projected above Wainwright but I think Wainwright has the better mentality to suceed.

Well those are the top 13 picks I made and you can see the rest via the link at the beginning of the article. Basically the trend for the rest of the draft was high upside players, especially pitchers. I totally believe that the draft is not made in the beginning of the draft but rather in the middle and the end. Anyone can pick pujols, santana, or any of the other top picks, but finding the hidden gem is the secret. If anyone has any questions about the end of the end of the draft feel free to email me (stew0610@ameritech.net) or comment and I'll respond.

Now onto some other picks I like and dislike from other managers:

One thing that really killed me was how early 3B went compared to when I thought they would go. I'm not sure if it is a shift in opinion of these players or if it was just this draft, I'll have to do a little more research but Scott Rolen going in the 6th round really hurt me.

Akinori Otsuka went really early, I think that he is still worth a pick but he isn't even the favorite for the closer role! We'll have to wait and see what Gagne does but I think this will be a waste of a pick. I just have a good feeling for Gagne.

Wolves took Chien-Ming Wang in the 11th round and I'm not against this pick if you have some other high strikeout guys to make up for it. I considered taking him as well but only because I had so many top strikeout guys. Wang's Wins are incredible but make sure you get some high strikeout guys like Aaron Harang or Brett Myers.

Tom Gordon in the 7th round? Are you kidding me? What do you think the difference between Solomon Torres and Tom Gordon is going to be...maybe 5-10 SV and half an ERA point? Well guess what, I nabed Solomon Torres in the 17th. 10 Rounds Later!

A couple of teams chose to go the route of waiting for starters and it worked out ok for them, not great. I still think it is necessary to grab atleast one guy you know you can count on for a great year so you can take a high risk, high reward pick later on.

One thing I didn't like from many of the teams was the idea of taking some of the veterans later on in the draft. I went the route of taking high reward guys and I think that's really the only way to go. If one of those guys makes it as big as his potential, it is going to be better than all of the other guys picks.

Paul Konerko in the 3rd round are you kidding me? It would not shock me if Adrian Gonzalez and Paul Konerko had similar numbers this year and Prince Fielder could easily have better numbers. I got Fielder in the 6th and Gonzalez in the 10th! Todd Helton in the 6th is also a waste of a pick. 1 Beast of a pick: Conor Jackson in the 22nd, Congrats Wookies! Conor Jackson could even outperform Helton...not likely but I wouldn't die of shock.

Ok well those are some of my quick hits on the mock draft I did earlier. A couple general things I noticed:

1. Closers are going way too early. Wait and grab them later, or even of the waiver wire.

2. 3B went a lot earlier than I expected, I'll look into that and get back to you.

3. Don't waste picks on 1b early in the draft, they'll be available later.

4. 2B will be available late.

5. Lots of C that offer minimal numbers. Don't waste a pick on one of the top 3, it doesn't give you that big an advantage.

Basically, a lot of the things I've noticed before but I might have to adjust my strategy if this 3B trend keeps up!

#23: Jimmy Rollins - SS PHI

#23 - Jimmy Rollins

So, I'm a lot higher on him than the Fantasy Man obviously. But I love this guys numbers. They are very good and he could probably improve on them. He hits in a pretty dangerous lineup that includes two first round fantasy picks: Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. I think it could even be argued that by pure numbers alone he could go even higher but the large number of other SS that have fairly similar numbers push him down to this spot. In any case, you're going to be happy with what you get from this guy.

Here's a little bit more about Jimmy: Last season, Rollins had a season high in HR by 11 but I don't see any reason that the power would go back down. I think that he might drop to maybe 20 HR instead of 25 but I think it'll stay higher than any previous season. Rollins doesn't hit lefties great -- unless they throw him a fastball (when he hits .307) but he still managed to bat .277 last season so if he can improve his leftie hitting that should be able to go up to .290 next season. Jimmy also had that nice hitting streak last season.

One reason to pick him: SS is a pretty deep position but all the SS go in the top 5 rounds and if you don't grab one then you're in trouble. After Rollins goes there is probably going to be quite a run on SS so beware of that if you decide not to take him.

One reason to not pick him: There are a lot of SS with fairly similar stats so maybe you can wait a round and get a fairly comporable SS. In addition his .277 average is pretty low for this early in the draft, but I think that might come up a little bit. He's been all over the board over his career in AVG and has never been over .300 but I don't think .290 is out of the question.

Looking Ahead...

I hope you've been enjoying the beginning of my top 25. I should have number 23 up today and perhaps I'll get up one of my favorite sleepers as well! But while you're waiting for that I figured I would let you know what else I have planned. In addition to the one man mock draft which I am ecstatic about, I've got a few more things bouncing around in my head:

1st off, I'd like to let you all know that I will be participating in a mock draft at MDC later today. It's not an expert draft by any stretch of the imagination but do any of you participate in expert drafts? I don't think so. Thats what makes it so great. It's how people actually draft! This will be like my 10th mock draft this offseason (yes I am a little crazy) but I figured I would post up some stuff about it later. A little analysis on my own team and my favorite and least favorite picks of the draft. So look out for that in the next couple days.

In addition, I came up with a pretty cool Idea for an article while I was doing a little research of my own. I was taking a look at some of my favorite players to see what round I would need to take them in to guarantee I got them when this idea hit me: I think I'm going to go through some of the mock drafts that I've done and compare with the ADP (average draft position) to see what kind of value my picks get. If I drafted them more than 10 picks later than the ADP then its a win, if I drafted them more than 10 picks before the ADP its a lose because that mean's I probably could have gotten them in the next round. So this will show what guys I'm probably a little too high on. Whether or not it will change my opinion I don't know but I figured I would put it out there.

I'm also planning an article on balancing your team, not only for all stat categories but for risk and within categories. Well I don't want to give to much away so you'll just have to check back later for it.

Also remember to keep an eye on my blog at all times during the countdown to #1! And after that I'll start a little something on top prospects.