Why the Cubs Should Trade Zambrano

Although I find it hard to believe the Cubs would trade Zambrano if they were in contention, if they are more than 10 games back at the trade deadline, there are a couple of very convincing reasons why Zambrano should be gone.

I did some quick number crunching and it appears with Zambrano's contract off the books for the '08 season the Cubs payroll will be at about 105 million. That is a lot higher than this year considering it was right at 100 million with Zambrano's contract. Considering that the Payroll will continue to increase over the next couple of years because of the backloaded contracts the Cubs signed, I find it hard to believe that the Cubs will go above 115 million for this season. Considering the outfield next year will probably be rid of Jones's 5 million that is calculated into the 105 figure (along with a 5 million dollar allowance for a new catcher or to resign Barrett with) that leaves the Cubs with about 15 million to play with. I see two choices here.

The first choice is to resign Zambrano and risk that he will give the Cubs another mediocre season for 15 million a la Kerry Wood. This is both risky and an inefficient use of money. Granted, if Zambrano pitched to form this year, the offense could probably carry the team from there. Next year, however, I am not sure Marquis and Lilly will be fooling batters as much. Lilly because batters will have seen his stuff for a year and Marquis because well, he's Marquis.

The second choice is to trade Zambrano at the deadline for a pitching prospect who could step in as a number 2 or number 3 next year. The Cubs rotation would certainly be fairly weak, looking something like: 1) Lilly 2) Hill 3) Young Pitcher 4) Marquis 5) Marshall. However, that would leave 15 million to add another impact bat. 15 million isn't enough to add A-Rod if he opts out of his contract but there are other options that could be explored. If the new owner of the Cubs is willing to dish out the money, there is always the A-Rod possibility but honestly, I think the chances of that are less than five percent.

The positions that are set in stone: 1B: D. Lee, 3B: A. Ramirez, LF: A. Soriano, CF: F. Pie. In addition, Murton or Jones will probably remain intact in right field. Floyd is gone. That leaves the middle infield as somewhat of a question mark. Izturis's option will not be exersized and DeRosa is probably going to be starting at 2B (although I would rather see him in a super-utility role). SS is the only real opening and Theriot could fill it if we spent the money on a starter. If Soriano could play 2B that would solve our problems and we could go after a big time free agent outfielder but he can't. Only on extremely dire circumstances should Soriano ever be allowed in the infield with a glove. Getting A-Rod would solve these problems but the Cubs are about 10 million short and no one even knows if he'll opt out.

After that long winded article, I see a couple of possible solutions. First, they could resign Zambrano and go into next year with essentially the same roster as they will end this year with (assuming a Jones trade and Pie in center full time at the end of the year). Next, they could somehow muster up enough money for A-Rod. Like I said, don't really see that happening. Finally, they could go out and mix everything up. They could trade both Jones and Murton for relief pitching help this winter (God knows they need it) and end up with someone like Eric Byrnes in right field. Could they afford Byrnes and Zambrano? Maybe. Would it be terrible to save a little money for another year (they're going to need it) and just sign a Byrnes type player? No. But it might not make the fans happy.

The question becomes...can this team win?

Lineup:
1. Soriano - I hate him hear but I'm going to have to live with it
2. DeRosa
3. Lee
4. Ramirez
5. Byrnes
6. Barrett
7. Theriot
8. Pie
9. Pitcher

Rotation:
1. Lilly
2. Hill
3. (Someone like Mike Pelfrey or Nick Adenhart)
4. Marquis
5. Marshall

I'd say it's one good pitcher short. Which brings us back to Zambrano. All the speculation in the world isn't going to make this an easy offseason for the front office of the Cubs. It's gonna get interesting in Wrigleyville.