Sunday, March 11, 2007

Closing in on Closers

Many, many picks at the end of the draft every year are spent picking up those guys who might take over the closer job at somepoint during the season and provide those much needed saves to boost your team to the top. The following list will highlight the current closer and if relevant, the closer in waiting. Use the following key to read the list: GREEN = High Security RED = Low Security WHITE = Neutral

Yankees - Mariano Rivera
Blue Jays - BJ Ryan
Orioles - Chris Ray - If he falters Danys Baez would probably take over
Devil Rays - Seth McClung - After him there is a whole slew of unworthy players, no one draftable.
Red Sox - Mike Timlin - No Red Sox closer is draftable although by the end of the year Craig Hansen should be getting the saves.
Twins - Joe Nathan
Tigers - Todd Jones - Jones will probably be the 1st to lose his job, the winner is: Joel Zumaya
White Sox - Bobby Jenks - Jenks has a fairly firm grip but Mike MacDougal has a little experience closing and will get the call if Jenks gets injured or bombs.
Royals - Octavio Dotel - Has a decent grip if only because there is no one else worthy on the team
Indians - Joe Borowski - Borowski was the happiest man on the Indians after Foulke unexpectedly retired. The job is his as long as he maintains around last years numbers.
Angels - Fransisco Rodriguez - The Job is his but if he gets injured, Shields can rack up the saves.
Athletics - Houston Street
Mariners - JJ Putz
Rangers - Eric Gagne - Otsuka is worth a look on draft day, who knows how long Gagne will be able to stay healthy.
Mets - Billy Wagner - The job is Wanger's unless he gets hurt and if he does Duaner Sanchez will be worth a high waiver priority but not a draft pick.
Phillies - Tom Gordon - Myers offered to close if he is need but that wouldn't make any sense at all. The Job is Gordons.
Braves - Bob Wickman - Wickman is solid but Mike Gonzalez is spectacular. Wickman will be on a very short leash. Rafael Soriano also has an outside shot at some saves.
Marlins - Kevin Gregg - Tankersley, Petit and Owens are all second in line with the dark horse canidates being Sergio Mitre and Ricky Nolasco.
Nationals - Chad Cordero - Cordero is the closer unless he gets traded (in which case he will close for whoever that may be...Boston?!?) if Cordero is traded Jon Rauch will get the call but there won't be many save opportunities coming out of Washington this year anyway.
Cardinals - Jason Isringhausen - The obvious choice to back Isringhausen up is Wainwright but that would require a trade for a starter.
Astros - Brad Lidge - It is Lidge's job to lose and if he falters, Wheeler will be waiting right there to pick up where he left off.
Reds - Weathers/Stanton - Avoid any reds closer at all costs.
Brewers - Fransisco Cordero - Cordero has it locked up for now, Turnbow is probably the backup.
Pirates - Soloman Torres - If torres falters, Matt Capps will be the go to guy, and he might never give it back up.
Cubs - Ryan Dempster - Wood and Howry will get a chance if Dempster pitches like last season. Wuertz has good stuff and could have an outside chance.
Padres - Trevor Hoffman - It is Hoffman's gig until he leaves, even if it is only out of repspect for the all-time saves leader. Linebrink is of course the very servicable backup and a trade may propel him into the gig sooner rather than later.
Dodgers - Takashi Saito - Johnathin Broxton will most likely be the closer by the end of the year and is certainly the long term solution in Los Angeles.
Giants - Armando Benitez - Ew. No one in SF is worthy of a pick, although, Brian Anderson may be thrown into the role late in the year, and he may be solid, he racked em up in single A last year.
Diamondbacks - Jose Valverde - Valverde is worth a pick but anything after him is not
Rockies - Brian Fuentes - Fuentes should be able to get the job done but if he fails, the Rockies could hand the job over to my least favorite ex-cub LaTroy Hawkins.

A quick summary of draft-worthy setup men (in no particular order): Broxton (LAD), Linebrink (SD), Howry (CHC), Wood (CHC), Capps (PIT), Wheeler (HOU), Tankersley (FLA), Petit (FLA), Owens (FLA), Gonzalez (ATL), Otsuka (TEX), Zumaya (DET)

Closer situations to avoid: Giants, Reds, Red Sox...possibly: Marlins, Devil Rays

Most likely to lose their job by June 1st: Todd Jones, Armando Benitez, Kevin Gregg, Eric Gagne, Ryan Dempster, Mike Timlin (not including any platoon situations).

I hope these closer quick hits help you in the ever on-going quest for saves. As always Email Me any questions, comments, or other thoughts.

Battle of the Fantasy Gods Results

Well, better late then never...right? I finally have the results of the Battle of the Fantasy Gods. For the sake of time and sanity, I will not post the full results here but rather just go over some of the highlights and dissapointments and if you would like to view the full results you merely need to click the link above.

I need to start of by saying that the Fantasy Auctioneer software is great in concept but it lacks in execution. There were several glitches in the software that caused people to make bids that they did not want to. The biggest issue it caused me was winning Dye for 29 when I only meant to bid 17. If you have ever used this software before you know that it is very frustrating and for those who haven't I a sure you can imagine.

Looking at my results, it may be apparent that in the past, I have had minimal experience with auction drafts. Based on past drafts I have done and auction draft research I did, prior to the draft, I concluded that I would not pay more than 30 $ for any one person. I think that this strategy could have been executed well had I not had that 29 $ Jermaine Dye bid. If I was to go back and redo the draft, I think I would spend a little more in the beginning and save a lot toward the end to play the end of the draft. There were several steals at the end of the draft that I would have liked to have gotten but because of uncertainty with my budget, I passed on. In the end, I ended up with 10 $ extra because I grabbed A. Reyes for only 1 $ which I was shocked about and had allocated much more money towards him.

My offense, as you may have noticed is going to be very hit or miss. It has an incredible amount of upside but also could amount to very little. I have good speed on my team especially with Dave Roberts as my 5th OF, although I didn't want him, after Figgins went for 2 $ more than I was willing, I was forced to settle for Roberts. In hindsight, I probably should have spent a couple more dollars to get Figgins.

I am very satisfied with my pitching. Cain, Schmidt, Harang, and Bedard will all be very solid starters and should get enough strike outs to make up for a lackluster Chien-Ming Wang, but I desperately needed his wins as none of my previous four starters play on particullarly high powered offenses, with the exception of maybe Bedard (we'll have to see what the Orioles can do). On the RP side, I was happy to grab Jenks, Fuentes and Lidge although I overpaid for Jenks, at the time it seemed like the right thing to do. I was very happy to be able to grab Wheeler in the reserves draft because I am sure Lidge will be on a very short leash this year and he is next in line.

Some of my favorite value picks:
1. J. Crede - 4 $
2. Schmidt - 8 $
3. Wang - 5 $
4. Reyes - 1 $
5. Fuentes - 4 $

Some of my worst value picks:
1. J. Dye - 29 $ (software glitch)
2. B. Jenks - 15 $
3. R. Furcal - 28 $ (anticipated getting Hanley for 28 but he ended up going for 32)

Overall, I think my team will be able to compete. If my offense all comes together, I will be able to make a run at 1st place even though J. Dye screwed me over. I think with some smart trades and/or waiver wire additions, my team could end up being very solid. But if my offense doesn't come together as anticipated then my team could end up finishing towards the bottom of the league.

Top 3 make or break players:
1. Prince Fielder - Anticipating 35-40 HR from him, if he hits less than 30, my offense will be doomed
2. Adrian Gonzalez - Anticipating 30-35 HR with a .290-.300 AVG...same deal as Fielder
3. Chris Young - 20/20 potential player, if he doesnt reach even 15/15 I will struggle

Honorable mention: Jeff Francoeur (power), Cain/Bedard/Reyes

Questions? Comments? Shoot me an email!