Sunday, February 11, 2007

Mock Talk 2.0

UPDATE: I was reviewing some of the notes managers left me on Mock Draft Central and one guy (I don't know who it was) had Mark Prior in the last round of the draft listed as my worst pick of the draft. I'm sorry but I needed to post this because to me a guy who has 3.00 ERA upside is hardly a bad pick with the last overall pick. If he is injured again, I drop him and move on, no loss to me. I think at the end of the draft MARK PRIOR is a fantastic pick. You heard it here first!
Ok, so maybe I'm a little obsessive but I wanted to solve the 3b mystery, so I did another mock draft Sunday morning. This time my strategy went awry a little bit but my team ended up pretty good. That just goes to show that if you really know what you're doing you'll end up ok. How do you learn to know what you're doing? Well by reading my blog of course! Anyway, I'm not going to go into as much detail as last time but I have some good insights.

I'm writing this as I'm drafting so we'll see what happens. Anyway, the first pick that shocked me was Howie Kendrick going in the 3rd round. The general consensus in the draft room was that it would have been a good pick, 10 rounds later! I agree.

Then Scott Rolen went in the 6th round which really scared me. But there wasn't a 3b run like last time which was reassuring. Zimmerman than went in the 9th round and I grabbed Chipper in the 10th. Remember that this is only a 10 team draft instead of a 12 team draft. So I'd say that if you wait til like the 7th or 8th round in a 12 team draft you should be ok for 3B.

A couple of quick hit notes on my team:

I grabbed Carlos Guillen after I missed out on both Hanley Ramirez and Michael Young. I passed on Hanley to take Holliday because I felt like I needed a top notch OF based on who was going.

I got a lot of my favorite sleepers in this draft: Rocco Baldelli, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez and Rich Hill.
I snagged Chien-Ming Wang in the 13th which may have been a bit early but I had so many top strikeout guys already that I felt I could sacrifice the strikouts on him.

I stook with my strategy of draft Closers, Catchers, and Second Base late and it worked out well for me with Kinsler at 2nd, Russell Martin at Catcher and Bob Wickman and Jason Isringhausen closing for me.

The biggest flaw in my team is certainly my speed which I really didn't notice until it was too late. I wanted to grab Dave Roberts at the end to come off the bench and get a couple steals but I missed out on him.

It was a very shallow draft so a lot of the sleepers that I usually draft went undrafted but I was pretty happy with it over all, minus my glaring need for speed.

I was reviewing the draft results and honestly nothing really jumped off the page at me which is a little disapointing but I'd say the biggest thing I gained from this is a better feeling of the 3B position. Although Rolen went early again in this draft, the rest of the guys lasted a bit longer so that's reassuring. I'm now planning on taking 3B in the 8-10th round of a ten man league and the 7-9th round of a 12 man league.

Take a look at the draft results using the link at the top of the article and get back to me with any feedback! Thanks!

#22: Matt Holliday - OF COL

When I see the name Matt Holliday, the first thing I think of is Jason Bay. Jason Bay had all the hype going into last season and after this season he has fallen out of my top 25, although I almost put him in. So what makes me think that Holliday won't suffer the same fate? Well first off Holliday plays in a much better lineup. He has guys like Garrett Atkins and Todd Helton hitting with him while Bay didn't have anyone last year. The second thing is Coors Field. I understand that the Coors Field last year wasn't as much of a hitters park as it usually is because the Rockies starting preparing the baseballs differently to take some of the pop out of them. Last year, Coors was the 11th best park for hitters but, the MLB is talking about standardizing the rules for baseball preperation in which case Coors would jolt back to the top.

Enough about Coors, here's a little bit more about Matt: Matt has been in the MLB for three years now, every year his HR have been going up. He had 14 in '04, 19 in '05, and 34 in '06. To some people that big jump may scare people off but I think that had Matt played the same amount of games he played in '04 and '05 his HR total would have been in the 28-30 range instead of 34. I think this guy is the real deal, and to be honest I don't know why you should think differently. Coors did not aid his HR total last year, there were 10 parks better for hitters! He did hit better at home than away but this is the case for a lot of batters who play at other parks. His AVG against lefties and righties is almost equal but all but 4 of his HR came against righties! I'm a fan of Holliday and I could see him higher on some people's boards but I'm playing it safe on this one, after learning from Jason Bay.

One reason to take him: Matt is young and is probably only going to get better. His AVG was fantastic last year and I think while it may go down a little, it certainly won't drop below .300. His power should keep increasing and I don't think 40 HR is out of the question.

One reason not to take him: We saw what happened with Jason Bay. Don't get me wrong Bay had a great season last year, but he just didn't have the season we all expected him to. Holliday is younger than Bay so in the end I think Holliday will be a better player but next year Holliday may struggle for a while now that pitchers know who he is.