When I see the name Matt Holliday, the first thing I think of is Jason Bay. Jason Bay had all the hype going into last season and after this season he has fallen out of my top 25, although I almost put him in. So what makes me think that Holliday won't suffer the same fate? Well first off Holliday plays in a much better lineup. He has guys like Garrett Atkins and Todd Helton hitting with him while Bay didn't have anyone last year. The second thing is Coors Field. I understand that the Coors Field last year wasn't as much of a hitters park as it usually is because the Rockies starting preparing the baseballs differently to take some of the pop out of them. Last year, Coors was the 11th best park for hitters but, the MLB is talking about standardizing the rules for baseball preperation in which case Coors would jolt back to the top.
Enough about Coors, here's a little bit more about Matt: Matt has been in the MLB for three years now, every year his HR have been going up. He had 14 in '04, 19 in '05, and 34 in '06. To some people that big jump may scare people off but I think that had Matt played the same amount of games he played in '04 and '05 his HR total would have been in the 28-30 range instead of 34. I think this guy is the real deal, and to be honest I don't know why you should think differently. Coors did not aid his HR total last year, there were 10 parks better for hitters! He did hit better at home than away but this is the case for a lot of batters who play at other parks. His AVG against lefties and righties is almost equal but all but 4 of his HR came against righties! I'm a fan of Holliday and I could see him higher on some people's boards but I'm playing it safe on this one, after learning from Jason Bay.
One reason to take him: Matt is young and is probably only going to get better. His AVG was fantastic last year and I think while it may go down a little, it certainly won't drop below .300. His power should keep increasing and I don't think 40 HR is out of the question.
One reason not to take him: We saw what happened with Jason Bay. Don't get me wrong Bay had a great season last year, but he just didn't have the season we all expected him to. Holliday is younger than Bay so in the end I think Holliday will be a better player but next year Holliday may struggle for a while now that pitchers know who he is.
Referal Code: MLBFrontOffice
