Spring Training Notes: NL Central

A couple of happenings that could impact your fantasy leagues:

- Jason Isringhausen has been pitching well this spring training and looks fully healthy. Do not hesitate to take him as the closers start to dry up, it won't be long before other people realize he is healthy.

- Jeff Samardzija was returned along with about a dozen players to the minor leagues. One player that didn't go back down was Felix Pie. Although he is not expected to make the team out of camp, if the team sees him fit and can unload Jacque Jones, they may do just that.

- Mark Prior will make a minor league start to try and gain more velocity. Piniella thinks it is closely related to his confidence and is not worried.

- Ryan Theriot and Rich Hill officially made spots on the team. Hill will become the #4 starter and Theriot will be a backup at 2b and SS and may even try a couple games in the OF. He is worth a late round pick in NL-Only leagues.

- Rickie Weeks has been struggling and it may be due to a sore wrist that has been bothering him.

- It's not good to be a young Pirates pitcher right about now. Maholm and Gorzelanny both got roughed up in recent starts although it shouldn't effect their status with the team. Both players are worth a look in deeper leagues.

Sleeper Alert: Dustin Hermanson, RP, CIN

Hermanson, recently signed by the Reds, becomes the immediate front runner for saves this season. During the White Sox incredible 2005 run, Hermanson racked up 34 saves with a 2.04 ERA. If Hermanson wins the closer job, I think it is reasonable to expect 20-25 saves with a 3.80 ERA. Don't buy into Hermanson before guys like Dempster, Torres or Isringhausen but he is worth a last round flier pick.

Top 150 Prospects: 101-150

Today I will begin unveiling my top 150 prospect rankings with rankings 101-150. Please note: that these rankings are for long term success, not immediate impact and only Players with NO major league experience qualified for this list. So players like Delmon Young and Matt Garza who still qualify as rookies will not make an appearance. As always if you have any questions or comments feel free to email me.

101. MARK PAWELEK, P, Cubs
102. TRAVIS WOOD, P, Reds
103. BRETT SINKBEIL, rhp, Marlins
104. MITCH TALBOT, P, Devil Rays
105. ANGEL VILLALONA, 3B, Giants
106. JOAQUIN ARIAS, SS, Rangers
107. EDDY MARTINEZ-ESTEVE, OF, Giants
108. RYAN TUCKER, P, Marlins
109. BLAKE DeWitt, 3B, Dodgers
110. NATE SCHIERHOLTZ, OF, Giants
111. CHRIS LUBANSKI, OF, Royals
112. SCOTT MATHIESON, P, Phillies
113. TYLER COLVIN, OF, Cubs
114. JEFF SAMARDZIJA, rhp, Cubs
115. PEDRO BEATO, rhp, Orioles
116. MATT MOSES, 3B, Twins
117. UBALDO JIMENEZ, rhp, Rockies
118. J.R. TOWLES, C, Astros
119. MATT ALBERS, rhp, Astros
120. RADHAMES LIZ, P, Orioles
121. BRIAN BARTON, of, Indians
122. LANCE BROADWAY, P, White Sox
123. ERIC PATTERSON, 2B, Cubs
124. ALEXI CASILLA, 2B/SS, Twins
125. CEDRIC HUNTER, OF, Padres
126. DELLIN BETANCES, rhp, Yankees
127. JASON HAMMEL, P, Devil Rays
128. DALLAS TRAHERN, P, Tigers
129. ERIC DUNCAN, 1B/3B, Yankees
130. COLLIN BALESTER, rhp, Nationals
131. RICKY ROMERO, P, Blue Jays
132. LORENZO CAIN, Brewers
133. TONY BUTLER, P, Mariners
134. EMILIO BONIFACIO, 2B, Diamondbacks
135. MATT MALONEY, P, Phillies
136. NEFTALI FELIZ, P, Braves
137. JAIR JURRGENS, P, Tigers
138. KYLE DRABEK, P, Phillies
139. BRANDON JONES, OF, Braves
140. ANDREW SONNANSTINE, P, Devil Rays
141. CHRIS CARTER, 1B, Diamondbacks
142. LARS ANDERSON, 1B, Red Sox
143. JOHNNY CUETO, P, Reds
144. BRIAN ANDERSON, P, Giants
145. JAKE FOX, C, Cubs
146. JOE KOSHANSKY, 1B, Rockies
147. JEREMY HELLICKSON, P, Devil Rays
148. MATT WALKER, P, Devil Rays
149. CHRIS NOWAK, 3B, Devil Rays
150. DUSTIN EVANS, P, Braves

Sleeper Alert: Brad Thompson, RP, STL

With Adam Wainwright's move to the rotation. It appears Brad Thompson has fallen into the 8th inning role. He is not going to overpower anyboy but if he can continue to make people ground out, he is going to be useful in leagues that count holds and could be worth a late round flier in NL only leagues because the Cardinals, at this point, can't afford to pull Wainwright or Looper out of the rotation. If a trade changes that scenerio, toss him back into the FA pool. But for now, he is worth a late round gamble.

5 Painless Questions

I would really appreciate it if everyone could answer 5 simple questions for me. It won't take more than 5 minutes of your time and will hopefully help me improve MLB Front Office and offer more of what you are looking for.

1. Where did you find out about MLB Front Office?
2. What are you looking for in a fantasy advice website?
3. What do you need that other sites don't have?
4. What attracts you to MLB FO?
5. Would you like it if MLB FO brought in an additional writer or two?

Thanks, please email me your answers. It is greatly appreciated. If that link does not work for you, you can find the email on the right hand side bar.

Mailbag Time

Lets do a mailbag! Email me your questions and I will answer ASAP.

I also wanted to take this opportunity to welcome any new readers that have found MLB Front Office via the link on the front page of Roto Hog. I hope you stick around for a while and be sure to email me an questions/comments/critism etc..

Roto Hog quick hits

This morning I participated in the first ever Rotohog draft. Below are a couple of quick hits. I will put together a more detailed analysis later. If you have any specific questions regarding the rules of the game, feel free Email RotoHog. If you have any questions regarding the draft or strategy, feel free to email me and I will do my best to answer them.

The biggest surprise of the draft was Johan Santana going undrafted. I wasn't planning on drafting him because I plan on rotating pitchers and batters through a platoon situation. Carpenter plays on day 1 so I drafted him.

My first round selection was Delmon Young. He was the best value for the money in my opinion. He could rack up 800 points for only 2 dollars.

Pujols didn't go until the 7th or 8th round.

Overall, the strategy behind this game is to get the best value for your money. To me that meant buying into the high upside players early. If all of the high upside players come together, I am fairly confident I can finish in the top 100 overall and have a shot at the 100,000.

Closing in on Closers

Many, many picks at the end of the draft every year are spent picking up those guys who might take over the closer job at somepoint during the season and provide those much needed saves to boost your team to the top. The following list will highlight the current closer and if relevant, the closer in waiting. Use the following key to read the list: GREEN = High Security RED = Low Security WHITE = Neutral

Yankees - Mariano Rivera
Blue Jays - BJ Ryan
Orioles - Chris Ray - If he falters Danys Baez would probably take over
Devil Rays - Seth McClung - After him there is a whole slew of unworthy players, no one draftable.
Red Sox - Mike Timlin - No Red Sox closer is draftable although by the end of the year Craig Hansen should be getting the saves.
Twins - Joe Nathan
Tigers - Todd Jones - Jones will probably be the 1st to lose his job, the winner is: Joel Zumaya
White Sox - Bobby Jenks - Jenks has a fairly firm grip but Mike MacDougal has a little experience closing and will get the call if Jenks gets injured or bombs.
Royals - Octavio Dotel - Has a decent grip if only because there is no one else worthy on the team
Indians - Joe Borowski - Borowski was the happiest man on the Indians after Foulke unexpectedly retired. The job is his as long as he maintains around last years numbers.
Angels - Fransisco Rodriguez - The Job is his but if he gets injured, Shields can rack up the saves.
Athletics - Houston Street
Mariners - JJ Putz
Rangers - Eric Gagne - Otsuka is worth a look on draft day, who knows how long Gagne will be able to stay healthy.
Mets - Billy Wagner - The job is Wanger's unless he gets hurt and if he does Duaner Sanchez will be worth a high waiver priority but not a draft pick.
Phillies - Tom Gordon - Myers offered to close if he is need but that wouldn't make any sense at all. The Job is Gordons.
Braves - Bob Wickman - Wickman is solid but Mike Gonzalez is spectacular. Wickman will be on a very short leash. Rafael Soriano also has an outside shot at some saves.
Marlins - Kevin Gregg - Tankersley, Petit and Owens are all second in line with the dark horse canidates being Sergio Mitre and Ricky Nolasco.
Nationals - Chad Cordero - Cordero is the closer unless he gets traded (in which case he will close for whoever that may be...Boston?!?) if Cordero is traded Jon Rauch will get the call but there won't be many save opportunities coming out of Washington this year anyway.
Cardinals - Jason Isringhausen - The obvious choice to back Isringhausen up is Wainwright but that would require a trade for a starter.
Astros - Brad Lidge - It is Lidge's job to lose and if he falters, Wheeler will be waiting right there to pick up where he left off.
Reds - Weathers/Stanton - Avoid any reds closer at all costs.
Brewers - Fransisco Cordero - Cordero has it locked up for now, Turnbow is probably the backup.
Pirates - Soloman Torres - If torres falters, Matt Capps will be the go to guy, and he might never give it back up.
Cubs - Ryan Dempster - Wood and Howry will get a chance if Dempster pitches like last season. Wuertz has good stuff and could have an outside chance.
Padres - Trevor Hoffman - It is Hoffman's gig until he leaves, even if it is only out of repspect for the all-time saves leader. Linebrink is of course the very servicable backup and a trade may propel him into the gig sooner rather than later.
Dodgers - Takashi Saito - Johnathin Broxton will most likely be the closer by the end of the year and is certainly the long term solution in Los Angeles.
Giants - Armando Benitez - Ew. No one in SF is worthy of a pick, although, Brian Anderson may be thrown into the role late in the year, and he may be solid, he racked em up in single A last year.
Diamondbacks - Jose Valverde - Valverde is worth a pick but anything after him is not
Rockies - Brian Fuentes - Fuentes should be able to get the job done but if he fails, the Rockies could hand the job over to my least favorite ex-cub LaTroy Hawkins.

A quick summary of draft-worthy setup men (in no particular order): Broxton (LAD), Linebrink (SD), Howry (CHC), Wood (CHC), Capps (PIT), Wheeler (HOU), Tankersley (FLA), Petit (FLA), Owens (FLA), Gonzalez (ATL), Otsuka (TEX), Zumaya (DET)

Closer situations to avoid: Giants, Reds, Red Sox...possibly: Marlins, Devil Rays

Most likely to lose their job by June 1st: Todd Jones, Armando Benitez, Kevin Gregg, Eric Gagne, Ryan Dempster, Mike Timlin (not including any platoon situations).

I hope these closer quick hits help you in the ever on-going quest for saves. As always Email Me any questions, comments, or other thoughts.

Battle of the Fantasy Gods Results

Well, better late then never...right? I finally have the results of the Battle of the Fantasy Gods. For the sake of time and sanity, I will not post the full results here but rather just go over some of the highlights and dissapointments and if you would like to view the full results you merely need to click the link above.

I need to start of by saying that the Fantasy Auctioneer software is great in concept but it lacks in execution. There were several glitches in the software that caused people to make bids that they did not want to. The biggest issue it caused me was winning Dye for 29 when I only meant to bid 17. If you have ever used this software before you know that it is very frustrating and for those who haven't I a sure you can imagine.

Looking at my results, it may be apparent that in the past, I have had minimal experience with auction drafts. Based on past drafts I have done and auction draft research I did, prior to the draft, I concluded that I would not pay more than 30 $ for any one person. I think that this strategy could have been executed well had I not had that 29 $ Jermaine Dye bid. If I was to go back and redo the draft, I think I would spend a little more in the beginning and save a lot toward the end to play the end of the draft. There were several steals at the end of the draft that I would have liked to have gotten but because of uncertainty with my budget, I passed on. In the end, I ended up with 10 $ extra because I grabbed A. Reyes for only 1 $ which I was shocked about and had allocated much more money towards him.

My offense, as you may have noticed is going to be very hit or miss. It has an incredible amount of upside but also could amount to very little. I have good speed on my team especially with Dave Roberts as my 5th OF, although I didn't want him, after Figgins went for 2 $ more than I was willing, I was forced to settle for Roberts. In hindsight, I probably should have spent a couple more dollars to get Figgins.

I am very satisfied with my pitching. Cain, Schmidt, Harang, and Bedard will all be very solid starters and should get enough strike outs to make up for a lackluster Chien-Ming Wang, but I desperately needed his wins as none of my previous four starters play on particullarly high powered offenses, with the exception of maybe Bedard (we'll have to see what the Orioles can do). On the RP side, I was happy to grab Jenks, Fuentes and Lidge although I overpaid for Jenks, at the time it seemed like the right thing to do. I was very happy to be able to grab Wheeler in the reserves draft because I am sure Lidge will be on a very short leash this year and he is next in line.

Some of my favorite value picks:
1. J. Crede - 4 $
2. Schmidt - 8 $
3. Wang - 5 $
4. Reyes - 1 $
5. Fuentes - 4 $

Some of my worst value picks:
1. J. Dye - 29 $ (software glitch)
2. B. Jenks - 15 $
3. R. Furcal - 28 $ (anticipated getting Hanley for 28 but he ended up going for 32)

Overall, I think my team will be able to compete. If my offense all comes together, I will be able to make a run at 1st place even though J. Dye screwed me over. I think with some smart trades and/or waiver wire additions, my team could end up being very solid. But if my offense doesn't come together as anticipated then my team could end up finishing towards the bottom of the league.

Top 3 make or break players:
1. Prince Fielder - Anticipating 35-40 HR from him, if he hits less than 30, my offense will be doomed
2. Adrian Gonzalez - Anticipating 30-35 HR with a .290-.300 AVG...same deal as Fielder
3. Chris Young - 20/20 potential player, if he doesnt reach even 15/15 I will struggle

Honorable mention: Jeff Francoeur (power), Cain/Bedard/Reyes

Questions? Comments? Shoot me an email!

In Focus: Chicago Cubs Rotation

As a Cubs fan, one situation I have been following very closely is the rotation battles going on in Mesa for the Cubs. A little earlier, I mentioned Mark Prior as a potential sleeper. I am now going to toss his name out there as a player to avoid. His fastball is currently sitting at 87-88 MPH and he has been getting smashed against. He has become way to cautious and it appears that some more time in AAA will be necessary. As it stands now, it looks like the Cubs rotation will be as follows:

1. Carlos Zambrano
2. Ted Lilly
3. Jason Marquis
4. Rich Hill
5. Wade Miller

I have also heard rumors that Miller and Marquis may flip spots. Now that we have decided the rotation, the question is raised. How well will they do? I want to start of by saying that this rotation should be a significant improvement over the inconsistant rotation of last year. Not only were the pitchers inconsistant last year, but who was pitching were inconsistant.

Lets start with the one bright spot from last year: Carlos Zambrano. If you read my 2007 BOLD Predictions, you will know that Zambrano is my Cy Young pick for this year. So what will that take? I'd say it is reasonable to expect: 3.10 ERA, 210 K, 18 Wins.

The #2 Pitcher in the Rotation is Ted Lilly. He came over from the AL East, so his numbers should improve slightly from last year but Wrigley can be a tough field to pitch in, so what can you expect? 4.15 ERA, 160 K, 14 Wins.

The #3 starter will probably either be Jason Marquis or Wade Miller, lets take a closer look at Marquis. Marquis was horrible last year but has looked decent in spring training thus far. As we all know, Spring Training is not a very good representation of the season to follow, but he certainly looks much better than last year. Prediction: 4.50 ERA, 110 K, 12 Wins.

The #4 starter has become a favorite among many fantasy experts. Rich Hill had an amazing september. What can we expect? 4.00 ERA, 180 K, 14 wins...sound good?

The #5 starter for now looks like Wade Miller. I wouldn't expect a whole lot from him but for a #5 starter, if he wins and holds the job, I think he will be solid. Prediction: 4.50 ERA, 150 K, 12 Wins...that is if he can put together a full season of course.

So what happens to the rest of them? The Majority should find themselves in AAA including Mark Prior and last year rotation main stay Sean Marshall. The Iowa Cubs rotation this year should be the most experienced in the minors.

What will the offense need to do? By my estimations, if the offense can put together an average of 4.8 runs per game it should be good for about a .500 record. 5.0-5.1 runs per game and I think it will be enough to make the playoffs. For Comparison, the Cubs last year scored 4.2 Runs per game and the Cardinals scored 4.8 runs per game, the Yankees scored 5.75 runs per game last year and led the league in runs. The cubs were 3rd to last. The only teams worse: The Pirates and the Devil Rays. What lineups last year produced 5.0-5.1 runs per game? The Red Sox and The Dodgers both posted Runs per game of around 5.05.

Can they do it? Read my 2007 BOLD Predictions to find out what I think.