In Focus: Chicago Cubs Rotation

As a Cubs fan, one situation I have been following very closely is the rotation battles going on in Mesa for the Cubs. A little earlier, I mentioned Mark Prior as a potential sleeper. I am now going to toss his name out there as a player to avoid. His fastball is currently sitting at 87-88 MPH and he has been getting smashed against. He has become way to cautious and it appears that some more time in AAA will be necessary. As it stands now, it looks like the Cubs rotation will be as follows:

1. Carlos Zambrano
2. Ted Lilly
3. Jason Marquis
4. Rich Hill
5. Wade Miller

I have also heard rumors that Miller and Marquis may flip spots. Now that we have decided the rotation, the question is raised. How well will they do? I want to start of by saying that this rotation should be a significant improvement over the inconsistant rotation of last year. Not only were the pitchers inconsistant last year, but who was pitching were inconsistant.

Lets start with the one bright spot from last year: Carlos Zambrano. If you read my 2007 BOLD Predictions, you will know that Zambrano is my Cy Young pick for this year. So what will that take? I'd say it is reasonable to expect: 3.10 ERA, 210 K, 18 Wins.

The #2 Pitcher in the Rotation is Ted Lilly. He came over from the AL East, so his numbers should improve slightly from last year but Wrigley can be a tough field to pitch in, so what can you expect? 4.15 ERA, 160 K, 14 Wins.

The #3 starter will probably either be Jason Marquis or Wade Miller, lets take a closer look at Marquis. Marquis was horrible last year but has looked decent in spring training thus far. As we all know, Spring Training is not a very good representation of the season to follow, but he certainly looks much better than last year. Prediction: 4.50 ERA, 110 K, 12 Wins.

The #4 starter has become a favorite among many fantasy experts. Rich Hill had an amazing september. What can we expect? 4.00 ERA, 180 K, 14 wins...sound good?

The #5 starter for now looks like Wade Miller. I wouldn't expect a whole lot from him but for a #5 starter, if he wins and holds the job, I think he will be solid. Prediction: 4.50 ERA, 150 K, 12 Wins...that is if he can put together a full season of course.

So what happens to the rest of them? The Majority should find themselves in AAA including Mark Prior and last year rotation main stay Sean Marshall. The Iowa Cubs rotation this year should be the most experienced in the minors.

What will the offense need to do? By my estimations, if the offense can put together an average of 4.8 runs per game it should be good for about a .500 record. 5.0-5.1 runs per game and I think it will be enough to make the playoffs. For Comparison, the Cubs last year scored 4.2 Runs per game and the Cardinals scored 4.8 runs per game, the Yankees scored 5.75 runs per game last year and led the league in runs. The cubs were 3rd to last. The only teams worse: The Pirates and the Devil Rays. What lineups last year produced 5.0-5.1 runs per game? The Red Sox and The Dodgers both posted Runs per game of around 5.05.

Can they do it? Read my 2007 BOLD Predictions to find out what I think.