Expert Draft Tonite

There is an expert draft tonite at mock draft central, it is definately worth checking out. You can watch the draft live via this link. It is a very impressive list of people including reps from Sports Illustrated and Yahoo!. I will not be participating in the draft but I will be there making comments and asking questions for the duration of the draft. You may here a plug or two for MLB Front Office in there so if you hear me, (I may be listed as MLB Front Office, Brad Stewart, or greenbaydude1232) make a shout out to the rest of the people about how great my blog is (just kidding...kind of). There will be analysis of the draft available on here sometime later this week. The draft starts at 7 CST.

In Other Baseball News...

From now on, every Sunday I am going to be putting out an article about the Baseball News from the past week that might affect your fantasy team. Since I didn't put one out last Sunday, the first one will appear today, on a Tuesday, instead.

The Bigs news this week is that Orioles SP Kris Benson is out for the year with a torn rotator cuff. Benson is seeking another opinion from a different doctor but come on, a tear is a tear. This is unfortunate for Benson because it will probably result in the Orioles not picking up his 7.5 million dollar option for next season, but it shouldn't have much fantasy impact as Benson is not being drafted in very many leagues. The Orioles signed Steve Trachsel to replace him in the rotation but he doesn't have significant fantasy value either. If you are looking for a sleeper pick in a very deep league or a keeper league, this may open up a job for Hayden Penn.

In other news, Carlos Zambrano said in a TV interview that if the Cubs don't sign him to a long term deal before the season starts he will leave the Cubs after the season ends. He doesn't say exactly what he means by long term deal but he did reference the contract Barry Zito got earlier this year. It seems unlikely to me that, considering the money the Cubs have tossed around this offseaon, Zambrano isn't given an extension. However, if he does not resign and the Cubs are not in the playoff hunt come the trade deadline, he could be dealt to a contender. If he does not sign, he said he would still play full strength for the Cubs this year but, if he does not sign, look for a little dip in his performance. This is definately something to keep an eye on.

There are also rumors floating around that Mariono Rivera could and would leave the Yankees in 2008. The New York media immediately took that to mean that he would go to the Red Sox. No matter how obsurd that immediate conclusion is, it would seem to me that if that seems like a bigger possibility, the Yankees would probably resign him to keep him away from Boston. Possbily a sign and trade deal could be worked out with another team. It does seem like if Rivera is pitching like he did last year, however, he will be resigned. The yankees has a number of internal options they could use but my guess is they are waiting to see what happens with Fransisco Rodriguez's contract. The Red Sox would provide good leverage for Mo to use with the Yankees, if it comes to that.

Other quick hits:

- Joe Mauer signed a 4 year/33 mil $ deal

- Bernie Williams will not accept the Yankees minor league offer and apparently has turned down guaranteed offers from other teams, it seems like he really wants to stay a Yankee.

- Armando Benitez is still on the trading block, but will need to prove he is healthy first.

- Mets sign Chan Ho Park

- Bronson Arroyo re-ups with Cinci through 2010 with a club option for 2011.

- Aaron Harang also re-signs with Cinci through 2010 with a club option for 2011. His deal is worth 36.5 MM including the option.

- Brett Myers got a 3 year extension from the Phillies.

- The Atlanta Braves were finally sold by Time Warner to Liberty Media, pending league approval. Maybe this will mean a larger pay role for the Braves and possibly an Andruw Jones extension?!?

#21: M. Teixeira - TEX 1B

#21: M. Teixeira

Mark was a 1st rounder in almost every draft last year, but boy did he have a bad year a la Beltran 2 years ago. Most experts are predicting a bounceback for him this year and I agree. Due to the fact that he had a unusually bad year last year, looking only at his stats from last year can not help you at all for your draft. However, looking at the history behind the player will prove to be very beneficial and if your leaguemates are uninformed, you may be able to grab this guy in the 3rd round.

Heres a little bit more about Mark: Last year Teixeira hit 33 home runs to complement a .282 BA. Not terrible stats but not Mark Teixeira stats either. In 2005, Mark Topped 40 HR and a .300 AVG to go along with 144 RBI and 112 Runs. Now those are Mark Teixeira numbers. I wouldn't be surprised to see 40 HR, .290 AVG, 125 RBI and 105 Runs. Mark won't produce anything from the speed aspect but that isn't a big deal.

One reason to take him: Mark should rebound pretty nicely from last year as I mentioned above. One reason that I firmly believe this is that if you watch some game film from last season you will see that an unusual number of balls of Marks are bouncing off the fence or going over the fence in foul territory. This leads me to believe that the power is still there and he was merely unlucky last year. With a little hard work he should be back to form.

One reason not to take him: His numbers from last year do not warrant this position in the top 25 so there is a little bit of risk involved in this pick. If you would rather stick with a safer bet this early in the draft than Teixeira is not your guy.

Some New Friends...

In an attempt to help MLB Front Office blossom to its full potential, I have spent this morning sending out emails to various fantasy baseball websites looking for some mutual advertising agreements. I have heard back from a couple and you will see there links on the right hand side. I am still waiting to hear back from many that I sent email's out to but I don't expect to hear back from all of them, as I am sure to most this tiny blog does not help their cause largely enough to give me the time of day. This is where I need your help! By telling your friends and your friends telling their friends, this fantasy website can get enough daily page visits to get the attention of these larger websites and in turn get even more attention on the global fantasy sports level.

Look at it this way. If 50 readers tell two of their friends and in turn those two friends tell two of their friends, we know have 350 people (I think - haha). Imagine now if you post a message about MLB FRONT OFFICE in your league and then each person in your league posts a message in all their other leagues etc. etc. I know it is a far fetched dream but the results would be out of this world.

Please take the time to tell your friends and your league about MLB Front Office so this little blog can grow and grow into a fully blown, efficiently operating website with multiple fantasy experts writing just for you!

In addition, I'd just like to remind anyone that if you have any fantasy baseball questions, feel free to email me at: stew0610@ameritech.net and you may even be featured in a blog article!

If you enjoy MLB Front Office...

If you enjoy MLB Front Office you may also enjoy two new blogs that I've exchanged links with Roto Authority and Fantasy Baseball Island. Fantasy Baseball Island is another affiliate of Fantasy Baseball Express. Links to both these websites can be found on the right side panel.

Anyway, I just wanted to touch in and let all of you know about these two great blogs and also wanted to let you know that the reason there is no new information up today is because I spent the day doing a little research for the competition at rotohog.com. If you haven't checked it out yet you need to! You could win up to 100,000 and have the title of the Best Fantasy Baseball Player in the WORLD! I will be doing a couple of articles over the course of the season on my team in this league, so check it out and sign up while you still can. They will stop accepting after 100,000 people so hurry! The Fantasy Man has his own "league" set up through them that I am in so check it out.

Also, if you run a credible and informative blog and would like to exchange links please contact me via email at: stew0610@ameritech.net

Mock Talk 2.0

UPDATE: I was reviewing some of the notes managers left me on Mock Draft Central and one guy (I don't know who it was) had Mark Prior in the last round of the draft listed as my worst pick of the draft. I'm sorry but I needed to post this because to me a guy who has 3.00 ERA upside is hardly a bad pick with the last overall pick. If he is injured again, I drop him and move on, no loss to me. I think at the end of the draft MARK PRIOR is a fantastic pick. You heard it here first!

Ok, so maybe I'm a little obsessive but I wanted to solve the 3b mystery, so I did another mock draft Sunday morning. This time my strategy went awry a little bit but my team ended up pretty good. That just goes to show that if you really know what you're doing you'll end up ok. How do you learn to know what you're doing? Well by reading my blog of course! Anyway, I'm not going to go into as much detail as last time but I have some good insights.

I'm writing this as I'm drafting so we'll see what happens. Anyway, the first pick that shocked me was Howie Kendrick going in the 3rd round. The general consensus in the draft room was that it would have been a good pick, 10 rounds later! I agree.

Then Scott Rolen went in the 6th round which really scared me. But there wasn't a 3b run like last time which was reassuring. Zimmerman than went in the 9th round and I grabbed Chipper in the 10th. Remember that this is only a 10 team draft instead of a 12 team draft. So I'd say that if you wait til like the 7th or 8th round in a 12 team draft you should be ok for 3B.

A couple of quick hit notes on my team:

I grabbed Carlos Guillen after I missed out on both Hanley Ramirez and Michael Young. I passed on Hanley to take Holliday because I felt like I needed a top notch OF based on who was going.

I got a lot of my favorite sleepers in this draft: Rocco Baldelli, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez and Rich Hill.

I snagged Chien-Ming Wang in the 13th which may have been a bit early but I had so many top strikeout guys already that I felt I could sacrifice the strikouts on him.

I stook with my strategy of draft Closers, Catchers, and Second Base late and it worked out well for me with Kinsler at 2nd, Russell Martin at Catcher and Bob Wickman and Jason Isringhausen closing for me.

The biggest flaw in my team is certainly my speed which I really didn't notice until it was too late. I wanted to grab Dave Roberts at the end to come off the bench and get a couple steals but I missed out on him.

It was a very shallow draft so a lot of the sleepers that I usually draft went undrafted but I was pretty happy with it over all, minus my glaring need for speed.

I was reviewing the draft results and honestly nothing really jumped off the page at me which is a little disapointing but I'd say the biggest thing I gained from this is a better feeling of the 3B position. Although Rolen went early again in this draft, the rest of the guys lasted a bit longer so that's reassuring. I'm now planning on taking 3B in the 8-10th round of a ten man league and the 7-9th round of a 12 man league.

Take a look at the draft results using the link at the top of the article and get back to me with any feedback! Thanks!

#22: Matt Holliday - OF COL

#22: Matt Holliday

When I see the name Matt Holliday, the first thing I think of is Jason Bay. Jason Bay had all the hype going into last season and after this season he has fallen out of my top 25, although I almost put him in. So what makes me think that Holliday won't suffer the same fate? Well first off Holliday plays in a much better lineup. He has guys like Garrett Atkins and Todd Helton hitting with him while Bay didn't have anyone last year. The second thing is Coors Field. I understand that the Coors Field last year wasn't as much of a hitters park as it usually is because the Rockies starting preparing the baseballs differently to take some of the pop out of them. Last year, Coors was the 11th best park for hitters but, the MLB is talking about standardizing the rules for baseball preperation in which case Coors would jolt back to the top.

Enough about Coors, here's a little bit more about Matt: Matt has been in the MLB for three years now, every year his HR have been going up. He had 14 in '04, 19 in '05, and 34 in '06. To some people that big jump may scare people off but I think that had Matt played the same amount of games he played in '04 and '05 his HR total would have been in the 28-30 range instead of 34. I think this guy is the real deal, and to be honest I don't know why you should think differently. Coors did not aid his HR total last year, there were 10 parks better for hitters! He did hit better at home than away but this is the case for a lot of batters who play at other parks. His AVG against lefties and righties is almost equal but all but 4 of his HR came against righties! I'm a fan of Holliday and I could see him higher on some people's boards but I'm playing it safe on this one, after learning from Jason Bay.

One reason to take him: Matt is young and is probably only going to get better. His AVG was fantastic last year and I think while it may go down a little, it certainly won't drop below .300. His power should keep increasing and I don't think 40 HR is out of the question.

One reason not to take him: We saw what happened with Jason Bay. Don't get me wrong Bay had a great season last year, but he just didn't have the season we all expected him to. Holliday is younger than Bay so in the end I think Holliday will be a better player but next year Holliday may struggle for a while now that pitchers know who he is.

Mock Talk 1.0

Ok so as promised, I have the results from the mock draft that I did earlier today at MDC (Mock Draft Central). You can find the results here. Feel free to post any comments you would like in the comments section or via email at: stew0610@ameritech.net. I announced to everyone prior to the draft that I would be using the results for this purpose so there was no problems if anyone saw this. My team obviously is MLB Front Office. I'm not going to go over all of the picks but here are some of the highlights, surprises etc. etc.

First starting with my picks:

R1 P6 Johan Santana SP
This was my target pick all along. So I was happy to get him here.

R2 P7 Grady Sizemore OF

I wanted to get Carlos Lee here but settling for Sizemore doesn't upset me too much.
R3 P6 Hanley Ramirez SS
This was also my target pick so up to here the draft was going pretty well.
R4 P7 Carlos Zambrano SP

Having both Zambrano and Santana is lethal.
R5 P6 Jake Peavy SP

I wanted Johnny Damon here but he was taken and Peavy was the best overall player left in my opinion.
R6 P7 Prince Fielder 1B
I love this guy. 40 HR is not out of the question.
R7 P6 Joe Crede 3B

This was the pick that really screwed me up. I wanted Baldelli here but Zimmerman, Rolen and Jones went and I felt like I need to take a 3b.
R8 P7 Brett Myers SP

I actually didn't mean to take him here but I'm not too upset about it. Lots of very high K guys just like I like it.
R9 P6 Delmon Young OF

Probably wouldn't have taken him here if I had gotten Baldelli but he has a ton of upside.
R10 P7 Adrian Gonzalez 1B

I really like this guy too. Not quite the upside of Fielder but in one of my two UTIL spots he's money.
R11 P6 Nick Markakis OF
This may be a bit early but I was struggling for OF.
R12 P7 Michael Cuddyer 1B, OF

Kind of neutral on this pick. It is too early but he was the best available bat in my opinion.
R13 P6 Adam Wainwright SP

I've often seen Reyes projected above Wainwright but I think Wainwright has the better mentality to suceed.

Well those are the top 13 picks I made and you can see the rest via the link at the beginning of the article. Basically the trend for the rest of the draft was high upside players, especially pitchers. I totally believe that the draft is not made in the beginning of the draft but rather in the middle and the end. Anyone can pick pujols, santana, or any of the other top picks, but finding the hidden gem is the secret. If anyone has any questions about the end of the end of the draft feel free to email me (stew0610@ameritech.net) or comment and I'll respond.

Now onto some other picks I like and dislike from other managers:

One thing that really killed me was how early 3B went compared to when I thought they would go. I'm not sure if it is a shift in opinion of these players or if it was just this draft, I'll have to do a little more research but Scott Rolen going in the 6th round really hurt me.

Akinori Otsuka went really early, I think that he is still worth a pick but he isn't even the favorite for the closer role! We'll have to wait and see what Gagne does but I think this will be a waste of a pick. I just have a good feeling for Gagne.

Wolves took Chien-Ming Wang in the 11th round and I'm not against this pick if you have some other high strikeout guys to make up for it. I considered taking him as well but only because I had so many top strikeout guys. Wang's Wins are incredible but make sure you get some high strikeout guys like Aaron Harang or Brett Myers.

Tom Gordon in the 7th round? Are you kidding me? What do you think the difference between Solomon Torres and Tom Gordon is going to be...maybe 5-10 SV and half an ERA point? Well guess what, I nabed Solomon Torres in the 17th. 10 Rounds Later!

A couple of teams chose to go the route of waiting for starters and it worked out ok for them, not great. I still think it is necessary to grab atleast one guy you know you can count on for a great year so you can take a high risk, high reward pick later on.

One thing I didn't like from many of the teams was the idea of taking some of the veterans later on in the draft. I went the route of taking high reward guys and I think that's really the only way to go. If one of those guys makes it as big as his potential, it is going to be better than all of the other guys picks.

Paul Konerko in the 3rd round are you kidding me? It would not shock me if Adrian Gonzalez and Paul Konerko had similar numbers this year and Prince Fielder could easily have better numbers. I got Fielder in the 6th and Gonzalez in the 10th! Todd Helton in the 6th is also a waste of a pick. 1 Beast of a pick: Conor Jackson in the 22nd, Congrats Wookies! Conor Jackson could even outperform Helton...not likely but I wouldn't die of shock.

Ok well those are some of my quick hits on the mock draft I did earlier. A couple general things I noticed:

1. Closers are going way too early. Wait and grab them later, or even of the waiver wire.

2. 3B went a lot earlier than I expected, I'll look into that and get back to you.

3. Don't waste picks on 1b early in the draft, they'll be available later.

4. 2B will be available late.

5. Lots of C that offer minimal numbers. Don't waste a pick on one of the top 3, it doesn't give you that big an advantage.

Basically, a lot of the things I've noticed before but I might have to adjust my strategy if this 3B trend keeps up!

#23: Jimmy Rollins - SS PHI

#23 - Jimmy Rollins

So, I'm a lot higher on him than the Fantasy Man obviously. But I love this guys numbers. They are very good and he could probably improve on them. He hits in a pretty dangerous lineup that includes two first round fantasy picks: Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. I think it could even be argued that by pure numbers alone he could go even higher but the large number of other SS that have fairly similar numbers push him down to this spot. In any case, you're going to be happy with what you get from this guy.

Here's a little bit more about Jimmy: Last season, Rollins had a season high in HR by 11 but I don't see any reason that the power would go back down. I think that he might drop to maybe 20 HR instead of 25 but I think it'll stay higher than any previous season. Rollins doesn't hit lefties great -- unless they throw him a fastball (when he hits .307) but he still managed to bat .277 last season so if he can improve his leftie hitting that should be able to go up to .290 next season. Jimmy also had that nice hitting streak last season.

One reason to pick him: SS is a pretty deep position but all the SS go in the top 5 rounds and if you don't grab one then you're in trouble. After Rollins goes there is probably going to be quite a run on SS so beware of that if you decide not to take him.

One reason to not pick him: There are a lot of SS with fairly similar stats so maybe you can wait a round and get a fairly comporable SS. In addition his .277 average is pretty low for this early in the draft, but I think that might come up a little bit. He's been all over the board over his career in AVG and has never been over .300 but I don't think .290 is out of the question.

Looking Ahead...

I hope you've been enjoying the beginning of my top 25. I should have number 23 up today and perhaps I'll get up one of my favorite sleepers as well! But while you're waiting for that I figured I would let you know what else I have planned. In addition to the one man mock draft which I am ecstatic about, I've got a few more things bouncing around in my head:

1st off, I'd like to let you all know that I will be participating in a mock draft at MDC later today. It's not an expert draft by any stretch of the imagination but do any of you participate in expert drafts? I don't think so. Thats what makes it so great. It's how people actually draft! This will be like my 10th mock draft this offseason (yes I am a little crazy) but I figured I would post up some stuff about it later. A little analysis on my own team and my favorite and least favorite picks of the draft. So look out for that in the next couple days.

In addition, I came up with a pretty cool Idea for an article while I was doing a little research of my own. I was taking a look at some of my favorite players to see what round I would need to take them in to guarantee I got them when this idea hit me: I think I'm going to go through some of the mock drafts that I've done and compare with the ADP (average draft position) to see what kind of value my picks get. If I drafted them more than 10 picks later than the ADP then its a win, if I drafted them more than 10 picks before the ADP its a lose because that mean's I probably could have gotten them in the next round. So this will show what guys I'm probably a little too high on. Whether or not it will change my opinion I don't know but I figured I would put it out there.

I'm also planning an article on balancing your team, not only for all stat categories but for risk and within categories. Well I don't want to give to much away so you'll just have to check back later for it.

Also remember to keep an eye on my blog at all times during the countdown to #1! And after that I'll start a little something on top prospects.