Trade Market Recap

As the trade deadline approaches, many names will be tossed around in rampid speculation. The simple fact is that while hundreds of names will probably be mentioned, less than 10 will exchange teams and maybe one of them will be a marquee name. Here are some things to keep in mind about the market over the next couple of weeks:

The Bats:

Mark Teixeira has been placed at a 50/50 or possibly greater chance of being traded. By my estimations that means there's maybe a 25 % chance he is dealt before the trade deadline. Something at the winter meetings seems a little more likely. Teams with known interest include the Yankees, Braves and Red Sox with the Red Sox probably leading the way. The Rangers have asked the Yankees for one of Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain and probably won't deal Teixeira for less. Hughes and Chamberlain are both untouchable. To make matters more difficult, Teixeira is a free agent after 2008 and initial reports expect agent Scott Boras to ask for something between 20 and 30 million a year.

Adam Dunn is available and a number of teams would like to acquire his services. One of the more suprising candidates is the Washington Nationals. The Nationals apparently would like to sign Dunn long term and make him the center of their rebuilding quest. This begs the question, why don't the Reds keep Dunn and rebuild around him? Never the less, expect Dunn to move at some point.

Jermaine Dye is available as well. A couple of teams are interested in him despite his dissapointing season. As you probably know, Dye is a free agent after this year and thus he would probably be only a one year rental. The Cubs have interest and have tools to trade, I assume Dye would be pleased at not having to move.

Other Bats that are available include Willy Mo Pena (who has been connected to a couple of teams including the Pirates), Jack Wilson (Blue Jays rumor was shot down), and Troy Glaus.

The Arms:

Dontrelle Willis is not available, contrary to popular belief. On the other hand, Jon Garland may be available after all. A trade between the Braves and White Sox swapping Garland and Edgar Renteria fell through, but Garland is still available. Jose Contreras is also available and if pushed, Javier Vazquez may be a possibility. The chances of any of these starters being dealt is small, however they are available and the cream of the crop. Joe Blanton and Noah Lowry could probably also be had, although their respective teams would probably rather keep them if possible. Scott Olsen could be dealt as well but, with recent legal problems I'd be surprised to see him move. The Diamondbacks are activly shopping Livan Hernandez but the draft picks might be worth more than whatever they could get for him. Joe Kennedy has drawn interest from a number of clubs, rumored to include the Brewers, Phillies and Dodgers. Ian Snell may be the best overall pitcher available but also the least likely to move. The Pirates would need to get a great bat for him.

The relief market is going to steal most of the headlines. Octavio Dotel seems almost certain to move. If so, Joakim Soria will probably step into the closer role again. Zack Greinke would have a shot as well. Greinke has also been mentioned in trade rumors, namely in a connection with the Cubs that turned out to be (apparently) false. I'd be very surprised to see Greinke go anywhere. The Yankees and Rockies are locked in trade conversations over Kyle Farnsworth. The sticking point is money. Eric Gagne is still a possibility to be dealt as well but, the Rangers may opt to simply resign him instead. Chad Qualls, Dan Wheeler, Soloman Torres, Jon Rauch, Chad Cordero and Scott Proctor are definately available as well.

Take it all with a grain of salt but, thats where we stand right now.

Bronx Bombers No Longer Bombing

It'd be an understatement to say that the Yankees are on a hot streak. Along with the Cubs, the Yankees are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now. Now only 7.5 games behind the struggling Red Sox, the Yankees have benefited from all around solid play from the whole team. With that said, the Yankees are looking as if they could become serious playoff contenders. Despite the new "develop the minors" strategy in New York, the Yankees will probably be buyers at the trade deadline. In fact, they have already begun by trading Double A reliever Jeff Kennard to aquire backup catcher Jose Molina. The Yankees have been after Molina for a while now. History tells us that despite rampid speculation, the chances that a star player will change hands at the deadline is thin. Never the less, here is a look at the names the Yankees have been connected to:

Ty Wigginton

Why it Works: Cashman is interested versatile players who can play multiple positions. Wigginton is also right handed, which is a plus for the largely left handed Yankees.

Who would go the other way: Scott Proctor. The Yankees should be willing to trade Scott Proctor because Joba Chamberlain is probably ready to make the jump to the majors from Double-A. The Devil Rays could use a AL East tested reliever, maybe even more so then they could use a starter.

Mark Teixeira

Why it won't work: As mentioned previously, big names rarely move at the deadline. In addition, the Rangers will be looking for no less than Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain and the Yankees won't move them.

Who would go the other way: If the teams could work something out, it wouldn't be for Hughes or Chamberlain. The Rangers would be welcome to almost any other pitching prospect in the Yankees system.

Octavio Dotel

Why it won't work: Dayton Moore is still asking for too much and the Yankees aren't interested in Dotel as a closer, therefore, another team will be willing to give more.

Mark Loretta

Why it would work: The Yankees are looking for a super-sub type utility player and that is exactly what Loretta is. The Yankees inquired on him back in December. The Astros should be willing to part with the soon to be 36 year old because the team needs to start rebuilding.

Who would go the other way: Most likely a minor league pitching prospect other than Hughes or Chamberlain. However, that's pure speculation; I haven't heard any names attatched to this rumor.

Wilson Betemit

Why it would work: The Yankees love Betemit, it wouldn't be the first time they've inquired on him -- or the second, or third for that matter. You get the point. Again, Betemit is a super-sub type player. He would fill that role this year and provide insurance incase Alex Rodriguez leaves after the season ends.

Who would go the other way: The Dodgers are looking for late inning relief help but, apparently, Proctor isn't good enough for them. Possibly Proctor and a minor leaguer could get it done.

Dan Johnson

Why it would work: The As would love to unload Johnson to make room for top prospect Daric Barton at first base. They are clearly in a selling mode, which has already started with the trade of Jason Kendall to the cubs.

Who would go the other way: Scott Proctor. The Yankees are certainly willing to move him, he's been attatched to almost every rumor. The As could use Proctor as a starter in '08.



In related news, the Yankees have been refusing to start selling. They clearly think they have a shot. They told the Mariners that Andy Pettitte wasn't available when the Mariners inquired. The Diamondbacks also inquired about Bobby Abreu but have seen backed off.

Keep an eye on all of the names I mentioned. Any players changing leagues at the deadline can have a big effect in AL or NL leagues.

Poll

I have added a Poll on the right hand sidebar. Please voice your opinion! It is greatly appreciated and will make MLBFO a better place! Please feel free to leave any comments in the comments section or via email. I always appreciate hearing from my readers!

Carpenter to have Tommy John

Cardinals ace, Chris Carpenter, is scheduled to have Tommy John surgery sometime next week, the Cardinals announced. Carpenter will miss the rest of this season and probably half of next season. Those who held onto Carpenter hoping for a return can now drop him. Drop Carpenter all the way down your list for next year as well. Think Pedro Martinez from this year.

By the way, It's good to be back!

Friday Cubs Game Notes

Whenever I get a chance to go to a game. I always post some notes from the game. This time I had tickets to the Cubs vs. Padres game. I sat right next to the Cubs dugout. Cubs' team president John McDonough sat right in front of me.

- I truely believe that there is a link between Alfonso Soriano hitting well and Felix Pie being in the lineup. They have great chemistry and it's very apparent.

- Michael Barrett was back behind home plate and it seemed to me he did a fine job calling the game for Ted Lilly who went 8 innings.

- After Alfonso Soriano homered, he trotted up the line backwards for a couple of steps. I would imagine a fine is coming for that.

- Mike Fontenot looked good. He seems like a very similar player to Ryan Theriot.

- As you may have heard Matt Murton was sent to Triple-A.

- Mark DeRosa looked very comfortable at third base and he made a catch I'm sure Aramis Ramirez wouldn't have even tried to get.

Also, I have been filling in for the NL West writer over at Big Dawg Baseball and will write the NL West article again next week. After my NL West article next thursday I will be gone for three weeks. A writer will be filling in for me at Big Dawg Baseball but there won't be any posts here. Please be patient and if you want to be notified when I return just enter your email address in the bar on the right hand side.

Trouble in the Bay

Theres a bit of an issue brewing in Tampa Bay. You guessed it, it is surrounding Elijah Dukes. Dukes recent slump has some people wondering if Dukes will be sent to AAA. Well, first things fist, he isn't going anywhere until Baldelli comes off the DL and proves he is out of the slump he's been in almost the whole season. If that happens, the question becomes, is it worth keeping Dukes in the DH role even if his bat is below the Mendoza Line? Well, there may be more to it: Yahoo! reports that even if they want to send Dukes to AAA, they may not because, the Durham Bulls (the Devil Rays AAA affiliate) has told the Devil Rays they don't want him back.

Its hard to sell low but I imagine that Dukes will be playing for a different team before the end of the 2008 season. A team is going to be willing to take on the off the field problems, just maybe not the Devil Rays -- or the Durham Bulls for that matter.

Twins Revolving Rotation

Although it has not been officially decided, the Twins have a decision to make and Scott Baker may not be happy with the result. Due to Monday's off day, the Twins have 5 starters for the next four days. Carlos Silva and Johan Santana will remain on 5 days rest meaning either Baker or Bonser would get skipped on Monday and the other would pitch on tuesday before Silva and then Santana on Wednesday and Thursday. The logical person to skip is Baker who has an ERA of 9.00 over the last 14 innings (his last 3 starts). Even if he is skipped, he wouldn't necessarily lose his spot in the rotation but Matt Garza is pitching well in AAA. He has 66 strikeouts in 68 innings and a 3.44 ERA. If Baker loses his job, Garza could be valuable in AL only leagues right away.

Ranking the Draft

The first day of the draft is complete and before the second half begins, I thought I would stop in and rank the first round of the draft. So below are the tiers of the value of players for FANTASY VALUE. Not how they will do in real life but rather, how big of an impact they will have fantasy wise.

Tier 1
David Price - LHP TB

Tier 2
Josh Vitters - 3B CHC
Mathew Wieters - C BAL
Jarrod Parker - RHP ARI
Phillipe Aumont - RHP SEA
Jason Heyward - OF ATL
Rick Porcello - RHP DET

Tier 3
Mike Moustakas - 3B KC
Madison Bumgarner - LHP SF
Beau Mills - 1B/DH CLE
Ben Revere - OF MIN
Wendell Fairley - OF SF
Andrew Brackman - RHP NYY

Tier 4
Daniel Moskos - LHP PIT
Ross Detwiler - LHP WAS
Matt LaPorta - 1B MIL
Casey Weathers - RHP COL
Matt Dominguez - 3B FLA
Devin Mesaraco - C CIN
Kevin Ahrens - 3B TOR
Blake Beavan - RHP TEX
J.P. Arencibia - C/1B TOR
Tim Alderson - RHP SF
Mike Main - RHP/OF TEX
James Simmons - RHP OAK

Tier 5
Joe Savery - LHP PHI
Chris Withrow - RHP LAD
Aaron Poreda - LHP CWS

Tier 6
Peter Kozma - SS STL
Nick Schmidt - LHP SD

Price is Right for D-Rays

Okay, I know its cliche and I said I wouldn't but I couldn't resist it. We all know David Price is going to be great. Here's the scouting report on him:

Price was drafted with Tampa Bays 1st round draft pick (first overall). He is a LHP out of Vanderbilt. His fastball consistantly sits between 90 and 92 MPH touching 95 MPH at times. He has three plus pitches and will be put on the fast track to the major leagues. Along with great skills he has a great mentality, on and off the field. Coaches have said that when Price is not available to pitch he voluntarily became the teams bat boy. He projects with a very high ceiling and he shouldn't be a huge problem to sign. He could be in the majors by the end of 2008.

So, where does Price fit in with the current prospects in the majors already? The following list includes only players with NO major league experience.

1. JUSTIN UPTON, of, Diamondbacks
2. YOVANI GALLARDO, rhp, Brewers
3. EVAN LONGORIA, 3b, Devil Rays
4. JAY BRUCE, of, Reds
5. CAMERON MAYBIN, of, Tigers
6. DAVID PRICE, LHP, TB
7. ANDREW McCUTCHEN, of, Pirates
8. REID BRIGNAC, ss, Devil Rays

Keep in mind that by the end of the season a couple of these players will have played in the majors. It is almost a sure thing that Upton and Gallardo will have. Take it with a grain of salt because it is bound to change as things play out this season.

1st Round Quick Hits

The first round of the Rule-4 first year players' draft is complete. Over the course of the next couple of days you're going to read a lot of articles, most will begin with the play on words "Price is right for Devil Rays". Everyone knows David Price is going to be a stud. What about the rest of the round? Here are a couple of quick hits:

- The two best values in the draft could come in the last four picks of the first round. First, the Tigers nabbed Rick Porcello who is a top 5 talent but slipped due to signability issues. He is a Boras client. Then, the Yankees nabbed Andrew Brackman who is a top 10 talent who slipped due to injury concerns. He may be forced to have Tommy John surgery but that is almost always successful.

- The 2nd to last pick of the draft, Wendell Fairley, could also be a great fantasy value. The Giants probably landed their future leadoff man in Fairley but to fantasy owners he represents much more. One of his top comparables is said to be Carl Crawford, a player who is much more valuable in fantasy than in real life.

- Two first rounders should be on the fast track for their teams closer job: Daniel Moskos, PIT; Casey Weathers, COL

- The other best future fantasy options: Josh Vitters, 3B, CHC; Mathew Wieters, C, BAL; Jarrod Parker, RHP, ARI; Phillippe Aumont, RHP, SEA; Jason Heyward, OF, ATL.

There will be complete analysis of the entire draft in the Huge Novemeber Draft Guide. So get pumped for that! There will also be more analysis over the course of the summer.