Players to Avoid

It's sleeper week here at MLB Front Office and although the week is coming to a end, before I post my final sleeper wrap-up article, I thought it would be important to outline some players to avoid. These are players that I am not taking, or are only taking if they fall far enough in a draft. Each person has his own scenerio so please don't just look at the list and dismiss it, in order to get the full benefits of this article, you need to read the entire analysis for every player.

Adam Dunn - 40 HR are nice but his average will hurt you more than his homeruns will help you. In my top 250 list, he fell to 84. Some people are taking him as early as the 4th round, do not buy into the hype! Just because his name is Adam Dunn doesn't mean he is worth a high pick. If he is still there in the 7th or 8th round, it is time to consider taking him.

Chien-Ming Wang: His low strike out rate will kill you and it also suggests that his ERA may rise next year. He will always get you the wins because he plays for the Yankees but don't look at his Wins and take him for only that. If you have 2-3 200+ strike out guys on your team already, then feel free to nab him. For example, in a mock draft I did, I had Zambrano, Myers, Harang and Hill. 3 of those are 200+ K guys and Hill has the potential to be one, therefore, I nabbed Wang to round out my staff. However, Wang is by no means a front of the rotation fantasy pitcher.

Todd Helton - This is another case of a big name influencing you to cough up a lot of money or an early draft pick for him. Do not buy into the hype! Helton's HR have been consistantly decreasing since 2003 and he has only hit over 40 HR twice in his career anyway: *cough* roids *cough*. He will get you an average around .300 and probably 10-20 HR. I'm sorry, but no one naturally gets an average of .372 and hits 42 HR in a season, there is too big a correlation between HR and average to do that (see my Baseball Stastics article for more on that). He is also 33 and his career is dieing.

Roger Clemens - If he plays, as he probably will, it won't be until the beginning of July probably and it is not worth spending a bench spot on him until then unless you have a very deep bench in your league, probably 5 spots or more.

Pedro Martinez - Pedro won't be back until July at the earliest and even then he will be very rusty and will need a minor league outing or two. Don't expect Pedro to be pitching at his level until mid August at which point you can probably pick him up off the waiver wire.

Fransisco Liriano - He is missing the entire season. No questions asked. Do not pick him in hopes he will return early because he won't.

This is just a small sample of some players to avoid. There are also a number of closers that should be left alone until late on draft day because they don't have a very good chance at holding the role for very long, these closers include:

1. Todd Jones; 2nd in line: Joel Zumaya
2. Ryan Dempster; 2nd in line: Bob Howry/Kerry Wood
3. Eric Gagne; 2nd in line: Akinori Otsuka
4. Kevin Gregg; 2nd in line: Taylor Tankersley
5. Takashi Saito; 2nd in line: Jonathin Broxton
6. Bob Wickman; 2nd in line: Mike Gonzalez
7. Cincinati Closer?
8. Solomon Torres; 2nd in line: Matt Capps
9. Boston Closer?; 2nd in line: Jonathan Papelbon
10. Octavio Dotel; 2nd in line: ???

Gut Feelings: AL Style

Over at lennymelnickfantasybaseball.com, Lenny has been running a series on his gut feelings. After reading his, I decided I would give it a shot and after the season we will revisit what I said and see how my gut feelings did vs. how all the prediction systems like PECOTA did. Here are the AL feelings, you can read the NL here.

Yankees -
1. Arod and Abreu bounce back from down years
2. Matsui rebounds strong from injury

Red Sox -
1. Matsukaka performs very well but everyone is still let down by him
2. Coco Crisp bounces back
3. Papelbon, despite what the doctors say, closes.

Orioles -
1. Bedard finally really makes it big
2. Markakis has huge breakout year

Blue Jays -
1. After signing contract, Wells dissapoints

Devil Rays -
1. Baldelli explodes and Young thrives
2. Devil Rays are surprise team of the year

White Sox -
1. Dye regresses but not as far as everyone expected

Indians -
1. Hafner explodes
2. Peralta rebounds
3. Sizemore impresses
4. Westbrook plays for pay
5. Indians win AL Central

Twins -
1. Cuddyer regresses to old form
2. Twins are overall dissapointment

Tigers -
1. Sheffield rebounds well from injury, hits 30 HR
2. Tigers are dissapointment

Royals -
1. Alex Gordon starts season in majors and wins ROY

Mariners -
1. Jeff Weaver impresses even his critics and Cardinals regret non-signing

Angels -
1. Acquire a 3B at the deadline, again blocking super prospect Bradon Wood
2. Gary Mathews Jr. is a huge waste of money

Athletics -
1. Nick Swisher dissapoints
2. Zito-less staff struggles

Rangers -
1. Michael Young and Mark Teixeira rebound from off year
2. Gagne still can't put together a full season

Disagree? Question? Comment? Email me: stew0610@ameritech.net

Question

Q: Hey, love your blog. I read it daily. I'm in a mixed 10-team Head to Head league. I need to keep 8 players. I'm keeping ARod, Crawford, Hafner,Vernon Wells, McCann, Zambrano and KRod. I need to decide for the last keeper between Bonderman, Sabathia and Haren. Who would you keep?

Thanks, Joel from Rhode Island

A: Looks like you've got a nice group of keepers there Joel. In my top 250 rankings, Bonderman was ranked 74, Sabathia was ranked 68 and Haren came in at 104. So as you can see, the real question here is Bonderman or Sabathia.

Here's a little bit about each of the players: Bonderman is a 24 year old stud. He had over 200 strikeouts last year to complement 14 wins and an ERA of 4.08. If you league counts whip, his was 1.30. He did this in 214 IP. Sabathia has a little bit more time under his belt, he is currently 26. He had 172 strikeouts but he also spent some time on the DL and only managed 192.2 innings. His ERA was 3.22, he had 12 wins and a whip of 1.17.

I think that after reviewing the stats, the choice is clear: Sabathia. If you take his strikeouts throughout 214 IP he has 191 strike outs. It is very probable that he breaks 200 strikeouts this year. His ERA was also significantly better than Bonderman's ERA. Although I do think Bonderman's ERA could go down this year, I don't think it will drop much below 4, if at all. Expect Sabathia to stay off the DL this year and easily top 15 wins on a Cleveland team that, if you read my blog regularly, you know I love. I don't think 17 or 18 wins is out of the question.

I hope this helps!

-Brad Stewart

Anyone else have a question? Email me: stew0610@ameritech.net

Have a Question?

Have a question? Are you struggling to decide between two players? Want to know who wins in a trade? Do you disagree with me on something? Let you're voice be heard! Send me an email at: stew0610@ameritech.net for inclusion on this blog.

Free Agent Class

Over at MLB Trade Rumors, Tim Dierkes has put up a very important list of potential 2008 Free Agents. Make sure you check out this list as it will contain many players that will be "playing for pay" this year. Here are some guys on that list that I fully expect to play better than last year in order to get more money:

1. Carlos Zambrano - The cream of the amazing 2008 Free Agent class. Some have concerns about his arm holding up, but he will only be 27 during the 2008 season and by that time he may have one a Cy Young.

2. Curt Schilling - Has age finally caught up with him? I say: no. He has made it clear he will test free agency after the year. Which means, if he doesn't perform this year, he may regret no signing with the Red Sox already.

3. Bobby Abreu - Had a terrible year last year but now he is playing in the Yankees lineup and is in a contract year. All signs point towards a good season.

4. Andruw Jones - It's hard to improve upon his numbers but I think his AVG will come up slightly and in the end I think the Braves new ownership will resign him.

5. Jake Westbrook - This guy is getting over looked in many fantasy drafts this year. If you are in a 12 man deeper draft, I encourage you to grab this guy in the last round or he is worth a 1$ pick at the end.

6. Marcus Giles - Had a terrible year last year but he is now united with his brother and should have his contract renewed if he plays well enough, which I assume he would like very much.

7. Scott Linebrink - He will want to become a closer when he leaves SD and pitching well this year is a must for that dream to be realized. Don't expect him to close this year for SD but if they trade him, which is definately possible, he will probably become a closer.

The first four players are people that need to be taken a little bit earlier due to them "playing for pay", while the last 3 are people to take a chance on in the last couple rounds or for a couple of bucks.

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I look forward to beating you!

- Brad Stewart

FBE Writers League

The Fantasy Baseball Express Writers league drafted last Monday and I appologize for the delays in getting my analysis up. It was a very interesting draft and I certainly don't agree with all of the picks but I'm going to focus more on my own team. Here are my results:

Round	Pick	Player	Position
1.	(12)	Carlos Lee	OF
2.	(15)	Travis Hafner	Util
3.	(38)	Roy Oswalt	SP
4.	(41)	Rafael Furcal	SS
5.	(64)	Gary Sheffield	1B,OF
6.	(67)	Scott Kazmir	SP
7.	(90)	Prince Fielder	1B
8.	(93)	Dontrelle Willis	SP
9.	(116)	Tom Gordon	RP
10.	(119)	Brad Lidge	RP
11.	(142)	Chipper Jones	3B
12.	(145)	Felipe López	SS
13.	(168)	Adam Wainwright	RP
14.	(171)	Nick Markakis	OF
15.	(194)	Anthony Reyes	SP
16.	(197)	Akinori Otsuka	RP
17.	(220)	Ryan Dempster	RP
18.	(223)	Conor Jackson	1B
19.	(246)	Adrián Béltre	3B
20.	(249)	Mike González	RP
21.	(272)	Coco Crisp	OF
22.	(275)	Matt Capps	RP
23.	(298)	Ronny Paulino	C
24.	(301)	Jake Westbrook	SP
25.	(324)	Mark DeRosa	2B,3B,OF

As you can see, I am probably a little bit too high on Carlos Lee this year. There may have been better talent available at that point but I am not really dissapointed with that pick.

The league settings were a little bit funky thus the large number of RP at the end. The roster positions were: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, UTIL, 5 SP, 5 RP, 6 BN. I usually prefer 5 OF, CI, MI, and 9 P. But I adjusted and came out with some guys who could be closers at the end of the year if the current closer struggles.

Here are my 3 favorite picks:

3. C. Jackson - Round 18. I really love this guy. I think he has a shot at 25 HR this year and to grab him for my bench this late in the draft was a steal.

2. F. Lopez - Round 12. It says he is only eligible at SS but a week into the season he will gain 2B eligibility because he is penciled in as the starting 2B for the Nationals. 40+ SB from a 2b is gold. I grabbed DeRosa in the last round to play 2B for a week before Lopez gains eligibility.

1. P. Fielder - Round 7. I have him ranked much higher than here and I truely expect him to hit atleast 35 HR. 40 HR is a certain possibility. I probably could have passed on him and tried to grab Adrian Gonzalez but I wasn't sure when he would go and didn't want to miss on both. I have often found myself selecting both of them, Prince at 1st and Adrian at UTIL or CI but because I had Hafner and there was no CI spot, I had to let Gonzalez fall much further than I would have liked.

Other Noteable picks:
C. Jones - 11th round
A. Beltre - 19th round
N. Markakis - 14th round

Questions? Comments? Email me! Stew0610@ameritech.net

Gut Feelings

Over at lennymelnickfantasybaseball.com, Lenny has been running a series on his gut feelings. After reading his, I decided I would give it a shot and after the season we will revisit what I said and see how my gut feelings did vs. how all the prediction systems like PECOTA did. Here is the NL and I will have the AL up a little bit later.

Cubs –
1. Kerry Wood Closes by end of year
2. Hill turns into a solid #2
3. Soriano does not repeat 40/40

Cardinals –
1. Reyes and Wainwright both succeed as starters
2. Rolen is finally healthy
3. Edmonds regress’s again

Astros –
1. Offense thrives but pitching beyond Oswalt tanks

Reds –
1. Arroyo and Phillips regress
2. The whole word knows who Encarnacion is after he’s done

Brewers –
1. Fielder smashes 40 HR
2. Sheets spends atleast 30 days on DL

Pirates –
1. LaRoche disappoints
2. Duke stays average
3. Sanchez bats another empty .325+ average

Mets –
1. Pedro returns in late July and leads Mets to wild card birth

Braves –
1. Miss playoffs again
2. New ownership resigns Jones.

Nationals –
1. Johnson returns in early June and is impressive
2. Zimmerman highlights horrible season

Marlins –
1. All pitchers regress except Olsen
2. Uggla Regresses
3. Hanley shines

Phillies –
1. Win NL East

Diamondbacks –
1. Johnson pitches for 3.50 ERA
2. Young players shine and the team competes

Padres –
1. Gonzalez hits 35 HR with .300 average

Dodgers –
1. Broxton is closer by end of year

Rockies –
1. Helton dealt at trade deadline

Giants –
1. Matt Cain outperforms Zito
2. Bonds breaks record and, after all the fuss, Selig is there.

Speaking of lennymelnickfantasybaseball.com, I have joined up with Lenny to provide my analysis to an even larger audience of fantasy maniacs. But I didn't stop there. I will be writing a weekly column on Head to Head leagues over at sportsblurb.com. The Column will start a couple weeks before the season starts and I will link to those articles on here.

AL Gut feelings should be up soon. Have a question or comment? Email Me: stew0610@ameritech.net

Sleeper Round Up

This is just a quick list of some guys to keep an eye on over the next season. These guys are going at various points in the draft, but a sleeper is defined as a player that can give you significantly better value than where he is drafted. In the case of a snake round, 2-3 rounds or in an auction league about 7 or 8 dollars.

Here are some of my favorite Sleepers:

R. Baldelli – Now that he’s healthy he is a 20/20 candidate
A. Rios – Will provide speed from OF
P. Fielder – 40 HR candidate
N. Johnson – Will be out 2-3 months but upon return could still hit 15 HR
A. Gonzalez – Should bat .300 and could hit 35 HR
F. Lopez – 2B eligible and 40+ SB from 2B is gold
D. Young - Along with Baldelli, a 20/20 candidate
A. Gordon – Should make team out of camp, if he does he will be early ROY candidate
C. Billingsley – Great SP to round out your rotation.
A. Wainwright – Closed out the WS, he has the experience and the mentality
R. Hill – Had amazing September, with full season he is 200 strike out candidate
S. Olsen – The Best of the Marlins SP crop…only one I expect to maintain stats
A. Reyes – WS experience, should create power combo with Wainwright for years to come
R. Johnson – Don’t let the ERA of 5 fool you, he was much better.
M. Prior – If he is finally healthy, he will be gold late in the draft
K. Wood – Could be Cubs closer by mid june
N. Markakis – 15 HR last year, expect over 20 this year.
C. James - Was dynamite for ATL last year, can he repeat?
J. Sowers - Was solid in MLB debut season.
M. Garza - ROY canidate if he plays full season
F. Hernandez - Getting drafted high, could be top 5 round pick next year.
J. Broxton - could close for LAD by end of year
A. Otsuka - was good for TEX last year, Gagne is still big ?

Please note, this is in no way a full list but it should give you a good idea of some guys to highlight on your list. As always, open to comments: stew0610@ameritech.net

Baseball: Statistical Oddities

It is finally here! Part one of my HUGE article on statistics in baseball is now available here. It will also be available via lennymelnickfantasybaseball.com. You should definately check it out and I would love any feedback that you have. Part two should be available sometime soon.