Mock Talk 1.0

Ok so as promised, I have the results from the mock draft that I did earlier today at MDC (Mock Draft Central). You can find the results here. Feel free to post any comments you would like in the comments section or via email at: stew0610@ameritech.net. I announced to everyone prior to the draft that I would be using the results for this purpose so there was no problems if anyone saw this. My team obviously is MLB Front Office. I'm not going to go over all of the picks but here are some of the highlights, surprises etc. etc.

First starting with my picks:

R1 P6 Johan Santana SP
This was my target pick all along. So I was happy to get him here.

R2 P7 Grady Sizemore OF

I wanted to get Carlos Lee here but settling for Sizemore doesn't upset me too much.
R3 P6 Hanley Ramirez SS
This was also my target pick so up to here the draft was going pretty well.
R4 P7 Carlos Zambrano SP

Having both Zambrano and Santana is lethal.
R5 P6 Jake Peavy SP

I wanted Johnny Damon here but he was taken and Peavy was the best overall player left in my opinion.
R6 P7 Prince Fielder 1B
I love this guy. 40 HR is not out of the question.
R7 P6 Joe Crede 3B

This was the pick that really screwed me up. I wanted Baldelli here but Zimmerman, Rolen and Jones went and I felt like I need to take a 3b.
R8 P7 Brett Myers SP

I actually didn't mean to take him here but I'm not too upset about it. Lots of very high K guys just like I like it.
R9 P6 Delmon Young OF

Probably wouldn't have taken him here if I had gotten Baldelli but he has a ton of upside.
R10 P7 Adrian Gonzalez 1B

I really like this guy too. Not quite the upside of Fielder but in one of my two UTIL spots he's money.
R11 P6 Nick Markakis OF
This may be a bit early but I was struggling for OF.
R12 P7 Michael Cuddyer 1B, OF

Kind of neutral on this pick. It is too early but he was the best available bat in my opinion.
R13 P6 Adam Wainwright SP

I've often seen Reyes projected above Wainwright but I think Wainwright has the better mentality to suceed.

Well those are the top 13 picks I made and you can see the rest via the link at the beginning of the article. Basically the trend for the rest of the draft was high upside players, especially pitchers. I totally believe that the draft is not made in the beginning of the draft but rather in the middle and the end. Anyone can pick pujols, santana, or any of the other top picks, but finding the hidden gem is the secret. If anyone has any questions about the end of the end of the draft feel free to email me (stew0610@ameritech.net) or comment and I'll respond.

Now onto some other picks I like and dislike from other managers:

One thing that really killed me was how early 3B went compared to when I thought they would go. I'm not sure if it is a shift in opinion of these players or if it was just this draft, I'll have to do a little more research but Scott Rolen going in the 6th round really hurt me.

Akinori Otsuka went really early, I think that he is still worth a pick but he isn't even the favorite for the closer role! We'll have to wait and see what Gagne does but I think this will be a waste of a pick. I just have a good feeling for Gagne.

Wolves took Chien-Ming Wang in the 11th round and I'm not against this pick if you have some other high strikeout guys to make up for it. I considered taking him as well but only because I had so many top strikeout guys. Wang's Wins are incredible but make sure you get some high strikeout guys like Aaron Harang or Brett Myers.

Tom Gordon in the 7th round? Are you kidding me? What do you think the difference between Solomon Torres and Tom Gordon is going to be...maybe 5-10 SV and half an ERA point? Well guess what, I nabed Solomon Torres in the 17th. 10 Rounds Later!

A couple of teams chose to go the route of waiting for starters and it worked out ok for them, not great. I still think it is necessary to grab atleast one guy you know you can count on for a great year so you can take a high risk, high reward pick later on.

One thing I didn't like from many of the teams was the idea of taking some of the veterans later on in the draft. I went the route of taking high reward guys and I think that's really the only way to go. If one of those guys makes it as big as his potential, it is going to be better than all of the other guys picks.

Paul Konerko in the 3rd round are you kidding me? It would not shock me if Adrian Gonzalez and Paul Konerko had similar numbers this year and Prince Fielder could easily have better numbers. I got Fielder in the 6th and Gonzalez in the 10th! Todd Helton in the 6th is also a waste of a pick. 1 Beast of a pick: Conor Jackson in the 22nd, Congrats Wookies! Conor Jackson could even outperform Helton...not likely but I wouldn't die of shock.

Ok well those are some of my quick hits on the mock draft I did earlier. A couple general things I noticed:

1. Closers are going way too early. Wait and grab them later, or even of the waiver wire.

2. 3B went a lot earlier than I expected, I'll look into that and get back to you.

3. Don't waste picks on 1b early in the draft, they'll be available later.

4. 2B will be available late.

5. Lots of C that offer minimal numbers. Don't waste a pick on one of the top 3, it doesn't give you that big an advantage.

Basically, a lot of the things I've noticed before but I might have to adjust my strategy if this 3B trend keeps up!

#23: Jimmy Rollins - SS PHI

#23 - Jimmy Rollins

So, I'm a lot higher on him than the Fantasy Man obviously. But I love this guys numbers. They are very good and he could probably improve on them. He hits in a pretty dangerous lineup that includes two first round fantasy picks: Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. I think it could even be argued that by pure numbers alone he could go even higher but the large number of other SS that have fairly similar numbers push him down to this spot. In any case, you're going to be happy with what you get from this guy.

Here's a little bit more about Jimmy: Last season, Rollins had a season high in HR by 11 but I don't see any reason that the power would go back down. I think that he might drop to maybe 20 HR instead of 25 but I think it'll stay higher than any previous season. Rollins doesn't hit lefties great -- unless they throw him a fastball (when he hits .307) but he still managed to bat .277 last season so if he can improve his leftie hitting that should be able to go up to .290 next season. Jimmy also had that nice hitting streak last season.

One reason to pick him: SS is a pretty deep position but all the SS go in the top 5 rounds and if you don't grab one then you're in trouble. After Rollins goes there is probably going to be quite a run on SS so beware of that if you decide not to take him.

One reason to not pick him: There are a lot of SS with fairly similar stats so maybe you can wait a round and get a fairly comporable SS. In addition his .277 average is pretty low for this early in the draft, but I think that might come up a little bit. He's been all over the board over his career in AVG and has never been over .300 but I don't think .290 is out of the question.

Looking Ahead...

I hope you've been enjoying the beginning of my top 25. I should have number 23 up today and perhaps I'll get up one of my favorite sleepers as well! But while you're waiting for that I figured I would let you know what else I have planned. In addition to the one man mock draft which I am ecstatic about, I've got a few more things bouncing around in my head:

1st off, I'd like to let you all know that I will be participating in a mock draft at MDC later today. It's not an expert draft by any stretch of the imagination but do any of you participate in expert drafts? I don't think so. Thats what makes it so great. It's how people actually draft! This will be like my 10th mock draft this offseason (yes I am a little crazy) but I figured I would post up some stuff about it later. A little analysis on my own team and my favorite and least favorite picks of the draft. So look out for that in the next couple days.

In addition, I came up with a pretty cool Idea for an article while I was doing a little research of my own. I was taking a look at some of my favorite players to see what round I would need to take them in to guarantee I got them when this idea hit me: I think I'm going to go through some of the mock drafts that I've done and compare with the ADP (average draft position) to see what kind of value my picks get. If I drafted them more than 10 picks later than the ADP then its a win, if I drafted them more than 10 picks before the ADP its a lose because that mean's I probably could have gotten them in the next round. So this will show what guys I'm probably a little too high on. Whether or not it will change my opinion I don't know but I figured I would put it out there.

I'm also planning an article on balancing your team, not only for all stat categories but for risk and within categories. Well I don't want to give to much away so you'll just have to check back later for it.

Also remember to keep an eye on my blog at all times during the countdown to #1! And after that I'll start a little something on top prospects.

#24 Ichiro - SEA OF

#24 - Ichiro

Two things jump out at me right away. The first thing is that Ichiro is one of those guys that only has one name. If PECOTA took this into account when finding comps, Ichiro would probably be linked to some famous people. A couple off the top of my head: Madonna, Sher, and Jesus. Ichiro's birth certificate for some reason calls him Ichiro Suzuki but somewhere between Japan and the United States his last name was lost. Perhaps because no one wanted to link him to the cars. The second thing that jumps out at me is that picture. God damn, who convinced him to pose for that. I'm sure all his "homeboys" back in Japan loved that picture and I bet his "fam" loved it even more. Theres a great article by Jim Caple at ESPN if you want to know a little more about Ichiro but now I'm moving onto the facts.

Anyway, Heres a little more about Ichiro: Ichiro is a hitting machine. He is almost perfect in all areas. He hits lefties and righties equally as well and hits almost all pitches with great skill. He hasn't hit below .300 since coming to the major leagues in 2001. Infact, he hasn't hit below .300 since his rookie year in 1993 in Japan. He stole 45 SB last year, the most since his 1st year in the major leagues when he stole 56. The other 4 years in the major's he stole between 30 and 35 bases so anywhere between 30 and 50 SB is quite possible next year. He doesn't hit a lot of homeruns but he usually ends up with about 10 over the course of the season. He hasn't had less than 200 hits at all in the MLB and he has never had less than 100 runs. One word to describe Ichiro: Consistant.

One reason to take him: When you are drafting in the 1st 3 rounds the one thing you want is to know what you are getting. You know exactly what you are getting with ichiro. 10 HR, 30 + SB, .300 + AVG, 100 + Runs and 50 + RBIs. If Ichiro hit exactly 10 HR, 3o SB, .300 AVG, 100 Runs, 50 RBIs that would be his worst season in the majors and it would still warrent a pretty high pick. There is very little to worry about when drafting him.

One reason to not take him: His low power contributions from the OF will require you to make up that power in another position. You may need to take a bat instead of a pitcher a little later on in the draft but let me tell you, you will not be disapointed with what Ichiro brings to the table, unless you lose by a handful of HRs.

Stay tuned for the #23 and one of my favorite sleepers!

#25: Chris Carpenter - STL SP

#25: Chris Carpenter

I have debated over this spot quite a lot. I changed it multiple times to include the likes of players like Jason Bay, Aramis Ramirez, and Derrek Lee but I eventually settled on Chris Carpenter after reading a nice article over at Rotoworld about position scarcity and ADP. The basic points the article were that a) to let the power only sluggers slide and draft more for position scarcity in the early rounds and draft a third tier 1b and OF later on (this is something I have been preaching all offseason) and b) that starting pitchers are ridiculously undervalued in mock drafts that have been going on. I understand how deep the SP is this year, you don’t have to preach that to me but Carpenter is the clear cut #2 starter and is worthy of this spot. His ADP so far is 30, and I would be ecstatic if I could get this guy in the third round.

Here’s a little bit about Chris: Chris is 31 years old and he bats and throws right. He is the ace of a young and questionable Cardinal’s staff that most likely will include both of the Cardinal’s most highly touted prospects Anthony Reyes and Adam Wainwright. Carpenter was a Dave Duncan Project, and his only good years have come in the past 3 years with the Cardinals. Prior to 2004 his lowest single season ERA was 4.10 in 2001 with the Blue Jays. He missed the entire 2003 season due to injury but hasn’t really shown signs of the injury since then.

One reason to take him: There is not much risk in taking Chris even though he has an iffy past as his last three years have been nothing short of superb. Over the last three years he has posted ERAs of 3.46, 2.83, and 3.09 with strikeout totals over 150 all three years and over 200 during his Cy Young year in 2005.

One reason not to take him: His IP total of 221.2 IP last year was the 2nd highest in his career only behind his 2005 total of 241.2. He hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down but if there is one downside to this pick its fear of a slump due to the large number of innings.

A Little Housekeeping...

Hey Guys! I'm still getting used to the blogspot.com setup so bare with me through the early bumps and bruises. I noticed yesterday that I submitted a blog without a title, I promise that won't happen again. Anyway, I've been thinking up some great stuff for you guys today and I will begin tomorrow with #25 on my top 25 list. During the time that I am putting this all out there, I will also throw in some of my favorite sleepers and some players to avoid. A little Warning on the top 25 list. The list is of the talent in the draft not necessarily where I would take them. Does that even make sense? The answer is yes. Every drafter (is that a word?), develops his own strategy during the draft. So my strategy might lead me to take the player that is ranked #15 over the player that is ranked #13 or #14, if the player that is #15 fits into my strategy better (ex. he plays a more scarce position or he hits for better balance). And you thought I was going to give away part of my top 25 to explain that didn't you! Nope, you're going to have to check in daily to see who is next. I should have the next number up every day. Somedays I may even put two up in one day! Ah...the suspense is killing me!

Also while I'm doing all of this, I am going to be including some feature articles (probably will be put up over the weekends). I understand that you're drafts are quickly approaching so I am trying to get it all out as fast as possible. One thing I am really excited to share with you guys is a one man mock draft! That's right, I will be doing a whole draft all by myself, to help you and I prepare for the draft by showing you how I would draft from every single spot in the draft. I have done a ton of mock drafts already and have a ton of research so it will be fun to put it all to use in that way.

Anyway, that is what you have to look forward. Drumroll please!

And #25 is...

Oh well, I guess you'll have to wait 'til tomorrow.

Position Scarcity Rankings

Update: Ah I got a title in there!

As promised, here are my Position by Position Scarcity Rankings. They are not written in any order below so you’ll have to read the analysis to find out how I rank them. I hope you enjoy, and if anyone has any questions or comments feel free to add a comment to the blog by way of the link below the blog or to email me at: stew0610@ameritech.net. I’d love to know if I’ve picked up any readers yet, so hit me up even to just say I read what you had to say! Well enough chit chat…here goes:


Catcher: Catcher is one of the scarcest position. There are only 3 catchers that are worth taking in a draft above round 15 (Mauer, Martinez, Mccann), in a 25 round draft. However, after the top 3, there are many decent catchers that can be taken in later rounds. This list includes: Barrett, Johjima, Hernandez and these three can often be had after round 15. If worst comes to worst, you can snag a guy in the last round to just fill the spot because no one will really be getting much production from this position.
Final Analysis: Pass on the top 3 Catchers, there is enough talent left after round 15 that it’s not worth sacrificing a top pick that could be used to draft talent at a more needed position.


1B: 1B is one of the deeper positions. If an elite 1B falls to you, by all means take him (you will see more in a later blog) but you can get a solid sleeper like Adrian Gonzalez or possibly even Prince Fielder in the 7th-10th round.
Final Analysis: The one thing I can not stress enough is to not buy into a name just because of the name. One guy to stay away from this year is Todd Helton. I think that Adrian Gonzalez or Nick Johnson can put up equal to better talent at a far less price.


2B: Second base is surprisingly deep this year. However, after Chase Utley, the 2nd Baseman start to blend together. There are some guys that stick out like Chone Figgins but overall there are a lot of very similar players. My strategy is to wait until the 15th-20th round to draft a 2b and you can usually snag a guy like Ian Kinsler, Tadahito Iguchi, or Josh Barfield.
Final Analysis: My overall conclusion is to not use a 5th-7th round pick to grab a guy like Brian Roberts. In addition, one warning on this strategy: In a keeper league/dynasty league, 2b tend to go higher because of the young average age of these players. Don’t buy into this hype but you will have to bend a little to get a decent 2b. In addition, 1 player to watch for: Felipe Lopez. He is only eligible at SS right now but he will be the starting 2b for the Nationals come opening day so about 1 week into the fantasy season (depending on eligibility rules) he will be eligible at 2b and from a 2b his speed is dynamite.


3B: Third Base is extremely deep. There is a ton of talent at the top (A-Rod, Wright, Cabrera) and I wouldn’t hesitate to take these guys just because they are 3b but in my book they get bumped down just a nudge because come rounds 10-15 there are still guys like Rolen, Crede, Glaus, and C. Jones available. I’ve even seen Zimmerman fall into the 10th round.
Final Analysis: I’m waiting on a 3B and using my extra top pick to bolster my starting rotation or add another OF (depending on how many OF are needed). I have even found myself selecting back to back 3B in the 10-15th round out of those 4 or 5 guys listed above and using one as my UTIL or CI because they have quite a bit of value that low. 30 HR-35 HR from a 10th-15th round pick is good value.

SS: SS is the one position that at all costs must be taken early. After about the 5th round you will find yourself having a tough time finding a good SS that is still around. Pretty much after the 5th round you are down to guys like Edgar Renteria and Felipe Lopez. I mentioned Lopez as a solid 2b above but for a SS his average is a little too low for me. A guy like Hanley Ramirez or Michael Young is good value in the 3rd round and they will probably still be around so go ahead and grab one.
Final Analysis: I will go more in-depth into the draft strategy I have developed in a different blog but for the moment, I will just say that I think that SS is the most necessary top 5 round pick you can make.


OF: OF is very deep with young breakout candidates (ala Delmon Young, Nick Markakis etc.) but when you need to take your OF really depends on the number of OF that you need to roster. I suggest taking an OF with one of your top 3 picks and then you can probably wait until like the 6th or 7th round to take another one. But, if you need 5 OF you need to take your 2nd OF a little earlier. OF is a very important position to know the breakout candidates in, especially in a 5 OF league.
Final Analysis: I like having atleast 1 elite OF because because of the depth in OF usually in the 3rd round there is still some 2nd round value left. One guy that I like in drafts this year is Jermaine Dye, I agree with most experts who say he will regress but this guy is being beaten on so much this year that he is being left on the board longer than he should be. In the 4th or 5th round don’t be afraid to grab this guy.


SP: Starting Pitching is deeper than it has ever been thanks in large part to the extraordinary number of breakout stud rookies last year. However, I think that getting a star SP is definitely the way to go. At first, I was among those who thought that a rotation could be built completely in the latter rounds and the earlier pick could be used to bolster the offense but after a couple of mock drafts and years of experience, I have come to the conclusion that atleast one pitcher that can be counted on for good numbers is a necessity.
Final Analysis: I am all for taking the young guys in the 15th-25th rounds to round out the rotation but the more risk you take at the back end, the more stability you need in the front end.


RP (SV): There are essentially 20-25 closers in the league that have a draftable amount of fantasy value. Of those closers, less than 10 have extremely high job security. That is why it is my strong belief that waiting on closers in the draft is the way to go. It is not worth using a high draft pick on a closer to get an extra 5 saves. Because of the job security issue, if you play the waiver wire right, you can grab a guy when the current closer falls out of favor.
Final Analysis: Wait on closers, if you must, grab one at the end of the 1st closer run but don’t waste a round 5 pick to grab the very best. Avoid starting the closer runs at all costs because they only hurt people. Decent closers can be found at the end of the draft, just make sure if one of your guys falls out of favor you are on top of the backup on the wire.


RP (HLD): Holds are becoming a more and more popular stat to use, especially in deep keeper and dynasty leagues. If a league uses holds, most likely it is in place of WHIP. The definition of a hold is somewhat tricky, a simplified definition can be found here but there are some exceptions to this definition. In general, because all middle relievers and setup men can get holds, it is a very deep position so wait until the end of the draft.
Final Analysis: When people are trading middle relievers, they often try to spin it off as being equal to saves for a cheaper price. Do not fall for this trick, while they are equal stats, Closers are more reliable to come into a game and many many guys on the waiver wire can pick you up a couple holds if need be.


I hope you guys enjoyed it and found it insightful. I am going to start going through some sleepers and my top 25 with a couple other things in there so check back every day to see what is new! Make sure you bookmark not only fantasybaseballexpress.com but also this blog so you can stay up to date with everything. I know it’s only a small part of Fantasy Baseball Express but I have high aspirations and I hope eventually to get enough of a following to be able to expand and add some sweet features.

MLB Front Office Blog

Welcome to MLB Front Office Blog! I'm just starting up this blog so I hope you enjoy. I am not a professional writer but I have been playing fantasy baseball for a long time and I am currently the comish of the MLB Front Office Dynasty League featured on fantasybaseballexpress.com. We are currently drafting and you can check out the draft by going to freewebs.com/mlbfrontoffice/draft.htm or you can check out the main page by going to freewebs.com/mlbfrontoffice I am the Chicago Cubs and mikey is the Los Angeles Dodgers. If you have any questions about the league feel free to email me any questions at: stew0610@ameritech.net but enough about that! I am hear to provide my insights into the game of fantasy baseball. And yes, after all the arguments and all the stress over fantasy baseball it is just a game! But to many it is not just a game it is a passion and for me, thats why I am writing for you all! Honestly though, I bet you're bored out of your mind by now so before I lose all of you before I even start, let me tell you what you can look forward to:

• Position by Position scarcity rankings (and what that means for your draft strategy)
• My favorite sleepers by position
• Top 25 Overall
• Top 25 Prospects
• Top Picks by position
• Mock 1st 3 rounds of a draft
• Analyzing and criticizing (or praising) the Fantasy Man
• Answer to Questions from readers
• AND MUCH MORE!

So as you can see, I have plenty of stuff planned out for this blog and I'm hoping to make it as interactive as possible. If you post a comment, I'll post my response or if you'd rather, you can email me at: stew0610@ameritech.net and I'll get back to you THE SAME DAY guaranteed! Look forward to the next blog coming soon about position scarcity!