Update: Ah I got a title in there!
As promised, here are my Position by Position Scarcity Rankings. They are not written in any order below so you’ll have to read the analysis to find out how I rank them. I hope you enjoy, and if anyone has any questions or comments feel free to add a comment to the blog by way of the link below the blog or to email me at:
stew0610@ameritech.net. I’d love to know if I’ve picked up any readers yet, so hit me up even to just say I read what you had to say! Well enough chit chat…here goes:
Catcher: Catcher is one of the scarcest position. There are only 3 catchers that are worth taking in a draft above round 15 (Mauer, Martinez, Mccann), in a 25 round draft. However, after the top 3, there are many decent catchers that can be taken in later rounds. This list includes: Barrett, Johjima, Hernandez and these three can often be had after round 15. If worst comes to worst, you can snag a guy in the last round to just fill the spot because no one will really be getting much production from this position.
Final Analysis: Pass on the top 3 Catchers, there is enough talent left after round 15 that it’s not worth sacrificing a top pick that could be used to draft talent at a more needed position.
1B: 1B is one of the deeper positions. If an elite 1B falls to you, by all means take him (you will see more in a later blog) but you can get a solid sleeper like Adrian Gonzalez or possibly even Prince Fielder in the 7th-10th round.
Final Analysis: The one thing I can not stress enough is to not buy into a name just because of the name. One guy to stay away from this year is Todd Helton. I think that Adrian Gonzalez or Nick Johnson can put up equal to better talent at a far less price.
2B: Second base is surprisingly deep this year. However, after Chase Utley, the 2nd Baseman start to blend together. There are some guys that stick out like Chone Figgins but overall there are a lot of very similar players. My strategy is to wait until the 15th-20th round to draft a 2b and you can usually snag a guy like Ian Kinsler, Tadahito Iguchi, or Josh Barfield.
Final Analysis: My overall conclusion is to not use a 5th-7th round pick to grab a guy like Brian Roberts. In addition, one warning on this strategy: In a keeper league/dynasty league, 2b tend to go higher because of the young average age of these players. Don’t buy into this hype but you will have to bend a little to get a decent 2b. In addition, 1 player to watch for: Felipe Lopez. He is only eligible at SS right now but he will be the starting 2b for the Nationals come opening day so about 1 week into the fantasy season (depending on eligibility rules) he will be eligible at 2b and from a 2b his speed is dynamite.
3B: Third Base is extremely deep. There is a ton of talent at the top (A-Rod, Wright, Cabrera) and I wouldn’t hesitate to take these guys just because they are 3b but in my book they get bumped down just a nudge because come rounds 10-15 there are still guys like Rolen, Crede, Glaus, and C. Jones available. I’ve even seen Zimmerman fall into the 10th round.
Final Analysis: I’m waiting on a 3B and using my extra top pick to bolster my starting rotation or add another OF (depending on how many OF are needed). I have even found myself selecting back to back 3B in the 10-15th round out of those 4 or 5 guys listed above and using one as my UTIL or CI because they have quite a bit of value that low. 30 HR-35 HR from a 10th-15th round pick is good value.
SS: SS is the one position that at all costs must be taken early. After about the 5th round you will find yourself having a tough time finding a good SS that is still around. Pretty much after the 5th round you are down to guys like Edgar Renteria and Felipe Lopez. I mentioned Lopez as a solid 2b above but for a SS his average is a little too low for me. A guy like Hanley Ramirez or Michael Young is good value in the 3rd round and they will probably still be around so go ahead and grab one.
Final Analysis: I will go more in-depth into the draft strategy I have developed in a different blog but for the moment, I will just say that I think that SS is the most necessary top 5 round pick you can make.
OF: OF is very deep with young breakout candidates (ala Delmon Young, Nick Markakis etc.) but when you need to take your OF really depends on the number of OF that you need to roster. I suggest taking an OF with one of your top 3 picks and then you can probably wait until like the 6th or 7th round to take another one. But, if you need 5 OF you need to take your 2nd OF a little earlier. OF is a very important position to know the breakout candidates in, especially in a 5 OF league.
Final Analysis: I like having atleast 1 elite OF because because of the depth in OF usually in the 3rd round there is still some 2nd round value left. One guy that I like in drafts this year is Jermaine Dye, I agree with most experts who say he will regress but this guy is being beaten on so much this year that he is being left on the board longer than he should be. In the 4th or 5th round don’t be afraid to grab this guy.
SP: Starting Pitching is deeper than it has ever been thanks in large part to the extraordinary number of breakout stud rookies last year. However, I think that getting a star SP is definitely the way to go. At first, I was among those who thought that a rotation could be built completely in the latter rounds and the earlier pick could be used to bolster the offense but after a couple of mock drafts and years of experience, I have come to the conclusion that atleast one pitcher that can be counted on for good numbers is a necessity.
Final Analysis: I am all for taking the young guys in the 15th-25th rounds to round out the rotation but the more risk you take at the back end, the more stability you need in the front end.
RP (SV): There are essentially 20-25 closers in the league that have a draftable amount of fantasy value. Of those closers, less than 10 have extremely high job security. That is why it is my strong belief that waiting on closers in the draft is the way to go. It is not worth using a high draft pick on a closer to get an extra 5 saves. Because of the job security issue, if you play the waiver wire right, you can grab a guy when the current closer falls out of favor.
Final Analysis: Wait on closers, if you must, grab one at the end of the 1st closer run but don’t waste a round 5 pick to grab the very best. Avoid starting the closer runs at all costs because they only hurt people. Decent closers can be found at the end of the draft, just make sure if one of your guys falls out of favor you are on top of the backup on the wire.
RP (HLD): Holds are becoming a more and more popular stat to use, especially in deep keeper and dynasty leagues. If a league uses holds, most likely it is in place of WHIP. The definition of a hold is somewhat tricky, a simplified definition can be found
here but there are some exceptions to this definition. In general, because all middle relievers and setup men can get holds, it is a very deep position so wait until the end of the draft.
Final Analysis: When people are trading middle relievers, they often try to spin it off as being equal to saves for a cheaper price. Do not fall for this trick, while they are equal stats, Closers are more reliable to come into a game and many many guys on the waiver wire can pick you up a couple holds if need be.
I hope you guys enjoyed it and found it insightful. I am going to start going through some sleepers and my top 25 with a couple other things in there so check back every day to see what is new! Make sure you bookmark not only fantasybaseballexpress.com but also this blog so you can stay up to date with everything. I know it’s only a small part of Fantasy Baseball Express but I have high aspirations and I hope eventually to get enough of a following to be able to expand and add some sweet features.
Referal Code: MLBFrontOffice
