Monday, February 12, 2007
If you enjoy MLB Front Office...
Sunday, February 11, 2007
Mock Talk 2.0
#22: Matt Holliday - OF COL
When I see the name Matt Holliday, the first thing I think of is Jason Bay. Jason Bay had all the hype going into last season and after this season he has fallen out of my top 25, although I almost put him in. So what makes me think that Holliday won't suffer the same fate? Well first off Holliday plays in a much better lineup. He has guys like Garrett Atkins and Todd Helton hitting with him while Bay didn't have anyone last year. The second thing is Coors Field. I understand that the Coors Field last year wasn't as much of a hitters park as it usually is because the Rockies starting preparing the baseballs differently to take some of the pop out of them. Last year, Coors was the 11th best park for hitters but, the MLB is talking about standardizing the rules for baseball preperation in which case Coors would jolt back to the top.
Enough about Coors, here's a little bit more about Matt: Matt has been in the MLB for three years now, every year his HR have been going up. He had 14 in '04, 19 in '05, and 34 in '06. To some people that big jump may scare people off but I think that had Matt played the same amount of games he played in '04 and '05 his HR total would have been in the 28-30 range instead of 34. I think this guy is the real deal, and to be honest I don't know why you should think differently. Coors did not aid his HR total last year, there were 10 parks better for hitters! He did hit better at home than away but this is the case for a lot of batters who play at other parks. His AVG against lefties and righties is almost equal but all but 4 of his HR came against righties! I'm a fan of Holliday and I could see him higher on some people's boards but I'm playing it safe on this one, after learning from Jason Bay.
One reason to take him: Matt is young and is probably only going to get better. His AVG was fantastic last year and I think while it may go down a little, it certainly won't drop below .300. His power should keep increasing and I don't think 40 HR is out of the question.
One reason not to take him: We saw what happened with Jason Bay. Don't get me wrong Bay had a great season last year, but he just didn't have the season we all expected him to. Holliday is younger than Bay so in the end I think Holliday will be a better player but next year Holliday may struggle for a while now that pitchers know who he is.
Saturday, February 10, 2007
Mock Talk 1.0
This was my target pick all along. So I was happy to get him here.
R3 P6 Hanley Ramirez SS
This was also my target pick so up to here the draft was going pretty well.
R4 P7 Carlos Zambrano SP
R5 P6 Jake Peavy SP
R6 P7 Prince Fielder 1B
I love this guy. 40 HR is not out of the question.
R7 P6 Joe Crede 3B
R8 P7 Brett Myers SP
R9 P6 Delmon Young OF
R10 P7 Adrian Gonzalez 1B
R11 P6 Nick Markakis OF
This may be a bit early but I was struggling for OF.
R12 P7 Michael Cuddyer 1B, OF
R13 P6 Adam Wainwright SP
Now onto some other picks I like and dislike from other managers:
Basically, a lot of the things I've noticed before but I might have to adjust my strategy if this 3B trend keeps up!
#23: Jimmy Rollins - SS PHI
So, I'm a lot higher on him than the Fantasy Man obviously. But I love this guys numbers. They are very good and he could probably improve on them. He hits in a pretty dangerous lineup that includes two first round fantasy picks: Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. I think it could even be argued that by pure numbers alone he could go even higher but the large number of other SS that have fairly similar numbers push him down to this spot. In any case, you're going to be happy with what you get from this guy.
Here's a little bit more about Jimmy: Last season, Rollins had a season high in HR by 11 but I don't see any reason that the power would go back down. I think that he might drop to maybe 20 HR instead of 25 but I think it'll stay higher than any previous season. Rollins doesn't hit lefties great -- unless they throw him a fastball (when he hits .307) but he still managed to bat .277 last season so if he can improve his leftie hitting that should be able to go up to .290 next season. Jimmy also had that nice hitting streak last season.
One reason to pick him: SS is a pretty deep position but all the SS go in the top 5 rounds and if you don't grab one then you're in trouble. After Rollins goes there is probably going to be quite a run on SS so beware of that if you decide not to take him.
One reason to not pick him: There are a lot of SS with fairly similar stats so maybe you can wait a round and get a fairly comporable SS. In addition his .277 average is pretty low for this early in the draft, but I think that might come up a little bit. He's been all over the board over his career in AVG and has never been over .300 but I don't think .290 is out of the question.
Looking Ahead...
1st off, I'd like to let you all know that I will be participating in a mock draft at MDC later today. It's not an expert draft by any stretch of the imagination but do any of you participate in expert drafts? I don't think so. Thats what makes it so great. It's how people actually draft! This will be like my 10th mock draft this offseason (yes I am a little crazy) but I figured I would post up some stuff about it later. A little analysis on my own team and my favorite and least favorite picks of the draft. So look out for that in the next couple days.
In addition, I came up with a pretty cool Idea for an article while I was doing a little research of my own. I was taking a look at some of my favorite players to see what round I would need to take them in to guarantee I got them when this idea hit me: I think I'm going to go through some of the mock drafts that I've done and compare with the ADP (average draft position) to see what kind of value my picks get. If I drafted them more than 10 picks later than the ADP then its a win, if I drafted them more than 10 picks before the ADP its a lose because that mean's I probably could have gotten them in the next round. So this will show what guys I'm probably a little too high on. Whether or not it will change my opinion I don't know but I figured I would put it out there.
I'm also planning an article on balancing your team, not only for all stat categories but for risk and within categories. Well I don't want to give to much away so you'll just have to check back later for it.
Also remember to keep an eye on my blog at all times during the countdown to #1! And after that I'll start a little something on top prospects.
Friday, February 9, 2007
#24 Ichiro - SEA OF
Anyway, Heres a little more about Ichiro: Ichiro is a hitting machine. He is almost perfect in all areas. He hits lefties and righties equally as well and hits almost all pitches with great skill. He hasn't hit below .300 since coming to the major leagues in 2001. Infact, he hasn't hit below .300 since his rookie year in 1993 in Japan. He stole 45 SB last year, the most since his 1st year in the major leagues when he stole 56. The other 4 years in the major's he stole between 30 and 35 bases so anywhere between 30 and 50 SB is quite possible next year. He doesn't hit a lot of homeruns but he usually ends up with about 10 over the course of the season. He hasn't had less than 200 hits at all in the MLB and he has never had less than 100 runs. One word to describe Ichiro: Consistant.
One reason to take him: When you are drafting in the 1st 3 rounds the one thing you want is to know what you are getting. You know exactly what you are getting with ichiro. 10 HR, 30 + SB, .300 + AVG, 100 + Runs and 50 + RBIs. If Ichiro hit exactly 10 HR, 3o SB, .300 AVG, 100 Runs, 50 RBIs that would be his worst season in the majors and it would still warrent a pretty high pick. There is very little to worry about when drafting him.
One reason to not take him: His low power contributions from the OF will require you to make up that power in another position. You may need to take a bat instead of a pitcher a little later on in the draft but let me tell you, you will not be disapointed with what Ichiro brings to the table, unless you lose by a handful of HRs.
Thursday, February 8, 2007
#25: Chris Carpenter - STL SP

Here’s a little bit about Chris: Chris is 31 years old and he bats and throws right. He is the ace of a young and questionable Cardinal’s staff that most likely will include both of the Cardinal’s most highly touted prospects Anthony Reyes and Adam Wainwright. Carpenter was a Dave Duncan Project, and his only good years have come in the past 3 years with the Cardinals. Prior to 2004 his lowest single season ERA was 4.10 in 2001 with the Blue Jays. He missed the entire 2003 season due to injury but hasn’t really shown signs of the injury since then.
One reason to take him: There is not much risk in taking Chris even though he has an iffy past as his last three years have been nothing short of superb. Over the last three years he has posted ERAs of 3.46, 2.83, and 3.09 with strikeout totals over 150 all three years and over 200 during his Cy Young year in 2005.
One reason not to take him: His IP total of 221.2 IP last year was the 2nd highest in his career only behind his 2005 total of 241.2. He hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down but if there is one downside to this pick its fear of a slump due to the large number of innings.
Wednesday, February 7, 2007
A Little Housekeeping...
Also while I'm doing all of this, I am going to be including some feature articles (probably will be put up over the weekends). I understand that you're drafts are quickly approaching so I am trying to get it all out as fast as possible. One thing I am really excited to share with you guys is a one man mock draft! That's right, I will be doing a whole draft all by myself, to help you and I prepare for the draft by showing you how I would draft from every single spot in the draft. I have done a ton of mock drafts already and have a ton of research so it will be fun to put it all to use in that way.
Tuesday, February 6, 2007
Position Scarcity Rankings
As promised, here are my Position by Position Scarcity Rankings. They are not written in any order below so you’ll have to read the analysis to find out how I rank them. I hope you enjoy, and if anyone has any questions or comments feel free to add a comment to the blog by way of the link below the blog or to email me at: stew0610@ameritech.net. I’d love to know if I’ve picked up any readers yet, so hit me up even to just say I read what you had to say! Well enough chit chat…here goes:
Catcher: Catcher is one of the scarcest position. There are only 3 catchers that are worth taking in a draft above round 15 (Mauer, Martinez, Mccann), in a 25 round draft. However, after the top 3, there are many decent catchers that can be taken in later rounds. This list includes: Barrett, Johjima, Hernandez and these three can often be had after round 15. If worst comes to worst, you can snag a guy in the last round to just fill the spot because no one will really be getting much production from this position.
Final Analysis: Pass on the top 3 Catchers, there is enough talent left after round 15 that it’s not worth sacrificing a top pick that could be used to draft talent at a more needed position.
1B: 1B is one of the deeper positions. If an elite 1B falls to you, by all means take him (you will see more in a later blog) but you can get a solid sleeper like Adrian Gonzalez or possibly even Prince Fielder in the 7th-10th round.
Final Analysis: The one thing I can not stress enough is to not buy into a name just because of the name. One guy to stay away from this year is Todd Helton. I think that Adrian Gonzalez or Nick Johnson can put up equal to better talent at a far less price.
2B: Second base is surprisingly deep this year. However, after Chase Utley, the 2nd Baseman start to blend together. There are some guys that stick out like Chone Figgins but overall there are a lot of very similar players. My strategy is to wait until the 15th-20th round to draft a 2b and you can usually snag a guy like Ian Kinsler, Tadahito Iguchi, or Josh Barfield.
Final Analysis: My overall conclusion is to not use a 5th-7th round pick to grab a guy like Brian Roberts. In addition, one warning on this strategy: In a keeper league/dynasty league, 2b tend to go higher because of the young average age of these players. Don’t buy into this hype but you will have to bend a little to get a decent 2b. In addition, 1 player to watch for: Felipe Lopez. He is only eligible at SS right now but he will be the starting 2b for the Nationals come opening day so about 1 week into the fantasy season (depending on eligibility rules) he will be eligible at 2b and from a 2b his speed is dynamite.
3B: Third Base is extremely deep. There is a ton of talent at the top (A-Rod, Wright, Cabrera) and I wouldn’t hesitate to take these guys just because they are 3b but in my book they get bumped down just a nudge because come rounds 10-15 there are still guys like Rolen, Crede, Glaus, and C. Jones available. I’ve even seen Zimmerman fall into the 10th round.
Final Analysis: I’m waiting on a 3B and using my extra top pick to bolster my starting rotation or add another OF (depending on how many OF are needed). I have even found myself selecting back to back 3B in the 10-15th round out of those 4 or 5 guys listed above and using one as my UTIL or CI because they have quite a bit of value that low. 30 HR-35 HR from a 10th-15th round pick is good value.
SS: SS is the one position that at all costs must be taken early. After about the 5th round you will find yourself having a tough time finding a good SS that is still around. Pretty much after the 5th round you are down to guys like Edgar Renteria and Felipe Lopez. I mentioned Lopez as a solid 2b above but for a SS his average is a little too low for me. A guy like Hanley Ramirez or Michael Young is good value in the 3rd round and they will probably still be around so go ahead and grab one.
Final Analysis: I will go more in-depth into the draft strategy I have developed in a different blog but for the moment, I will just say that I think that SS is the most necessary top 5 round pick you can make.
OF: OF is very deep with young breakout candidates (ala Delmon Young, Nick Markakis etc.) but when you need to take your OF really depends on the number of OF that you need to roster. I suggest taking an OF with one of your top 3 picks and then you can probably wait until like the 6th or 7th round to take another one. But, if you need 5 OF you need to take your 2nd OF a little earlier. OF is a very important position to know the breakout candidates in, especially in a 5 OF league.
Final Analysis: I like having atleast 1 elite OF because because of the depth in OF usually in the 3rd round there is still some 2nd round value left. One guy that I like in drafts this year is Jermaine Dye, I agree with most experts who say he will regress but this guy is being beaten on so much this year that he is being left on the board longer than he should be. In the 4th or 5th round don’t be afraid to grab this guy.
SP: Starting Pitching is deeper than it has ever been thanks in large part to the extraordinary number of breakout stud rookies last year. However, I think that getting a star SP is definitely the way to go. At first, I was among those who thought that a rotation could be built completely in the latter rounds and the earlier pick could be used to bolster the offense but after a couple of mock drafts and years of experience, I have come to the conclusion that atleast one pitcher that can be counted on for good numbers is a necessity.
Final Analysis: I am all for taking the young guys in the 15th-25th rounds to round out the rotation but the more risk you take at the back end, the more stability you need in the front end.
RP (SV): There are essentially 20-25 closers in the league that have a draftable amount of fantasy value. Of those closers, less than 10 have extremely high job security. That is why it is my strong belief that waiting on closers in the draft is the way to go. It is not worth using a high draft pick on a closer to get an extra 5 saves. Because of the job security issue, if you play the waiver wire right, you can grab a guy when the current closer falls out of favor.
Final Analysis: Wait on closers, if you must, grab one at the end of the 1st closer run but don’t waste a round 5 pick to grab the very best. Avoid starting the closer runs at all costs because they only hurt people. Decent closers can be found at the end of the draft, just make sure if one of your guys falls out of favor you are on top of the backup on the wire.
RP (HLD): Holds are becoming a more and more popular stat to use, especially in deep keeper and dynasty leagues. If a league uses holds, most likely it is in place of WHIP. The definition of a hold is somewhat tricky, a simplified definition can be found here but there are some exceptions to this definition. In general, because all middle relievers and setup men can get holds, it is a very deep position so wait until the end of the draft.
Final Analysis: When people are trading middle relievers, they often try to spin it off as being equal to saves for a cheaper price. Do not fall for this trick, while they are equal stats, Closers are more reliable to come into a game and many many guys on the waiver wire can pick you up a couple holds if need be.
I hope you guys enjoyed it and found it insightful. I am going to start going through some sleepers and my top 25 with a couple other things in there so check back every day to see what is new! Make sure you bookmark not only fantasybaseballexpress.com but also this blog so you can stay up to date with everything. I know it’s only a small part of Fantasy Baseball Express but I have high aspirations and I hope eventually to get enough of a following to be able to expand and add some sweet features.



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