Friday Cubs Game Notes

Whenever I get a chance to go to a game. I always post some notes from the game. This time I had tickets to the Cubs vs. Padres game. I sat right next to the Cubs dugout. Cubs' team president John McDonough sat right in front of me.

- I truely believe that there is a link between Alfonso Soriano hitting well and Felix Pie being in the lineup. They have great chemistry and it's very apparent.

- Michael Barrett was back behind home plate and it seemed to me he did a fine job calling the game for Ted Lilly who went 8 innings.

- After Alfonso Soriano homered, he trotted up the line backwards for a couple of steps. I would imagine a fine is coming for that.

- Mike Fontenot looked good. He seems like a very similar player to Ryan Theriot.

- As you may have heard Matt Murton was sent to Triple-A.

- Mark DeRosa looked very comfortable at third base and he made a catch I'm sure Aramis Ramirez wouldn't have even tried to get.

Also, I have been filling in for the NL West writer over at Big Dawg Baseball and will write the NL West article again next week. After my NL West article next thursday I will be gone for three weeks. A writer will be filling in for me at Big Dawg Baseball but there won't be any posts here. Please be patient and if you want to be notified when I return just enter your email address in the bar on the right hand side.

Trouble in the Bay

Theres a bit of an issue brewing in Tampa Bay. You guessed it, it is surrounding Elijah Dukes. Dukes recent slump has some people wondering if Dukes will be sent to AAA. Well, first things fist, he isn't going anywhere until Baldelli comes off the DL and proves he is out of the slump he's been in almost the whole season. If that happens, the question becomes, is it worth keeping Dukes in the DH role even if his bat is below the Mendoza Line? Well, there may be more to it: Yahoo! reports that even if they want to send Dukes to AAA, they may not because, the Durham Bulls (the Devil Rays AAA affiliate) has told the Devil Rays they don't want him back.

Its hard to sell low but I imagine that Dukes will be playing for a different team before the end of the 2008 season. A team is going to be willing to take on the off the field problems, just maybe not the Devil Rays -- or the Durham Bulls for that matter.

Twins Revolving Rotation

Although it has not been officially decided, the Twins have a decision to make and Scott Baker may not be happy with the result. Due to Monday's off day, the Twins have 5 starters for the next four days. Carlos Silva and Johan Santana will remain on 5 days rest meaning either Baker or Bonser would get skipped on Monday and the other would pitch on tuesday before Silva and then Santana on Wednesday and Thursday. The logical person to skip is Baker who has an ERA of 9.00 over the last 14 innings (his last 3 starts). Even if he is skipped, he wouldn't necessarily lose his spot in the rotation but Matt Garza is pitching well in AAA. He has 66 strikeouts in 68 innings and a 3.44 ERA. If Baker loses his job, Garza could be valuable in AL only leagues right away.

Ranking the Draft

The first day of the draft is complete and before the second half begins, I thought I would stop in and rank the first round of the draft. So below are the tiers of the value of players for FANTASY VALUE. Not how they will do in real life but rather, how big of an impact they will have fantasy wise.

Tier 1
David Price - LHP TB

Tier 2
Josh Vitters - 3B CHC
Mathew Wieters - C BAL
Jarrod Parker - RHP ARI
Phillipe Aumont - RHP SEA
Jason Heyward - OF ATL
Rick Porcello - RHP DET

Tier 3
Mike Moustakas - 3B KC
Madison Bumgarner - LHP SF
Beau Mills - 1B/DH CLE
Ben Revere - OF MIN
Wendell Fairley - OF SF
Andrew Brackman - RHP NYY

Tier 4
Daniel Moskos - LHP PIT
Ross Detwiler - LHP WAS
Matt LaPorta - 1B MIL
Casey Weathers - RHP COL
Matt Dominguez - 3B FLA
Devin Mesaraco - C CIN
Kevin Ahrens - 3B TOR
Blake Beavan - RHP TEX
J.P. Arencibia - C/1B TOR
Tim Alderson - RHP SF
Mike Main - RHP/OF TEX
James Simmons - RHP OAK

Tier 5
Joe Savery - LHP PHI
Chris Withrow - RHP LAD
Aaron Poreda - LHP CWS

Tier 6
Peter Kozma - SS STL
Nick Schmidt - LHP SD

Price is Right for D-Rays

Okay, I know its cliche and I said I wouldn't but I couldn't resist it. We all know David Price is going to be great. Here's the scouting report on him:

Price was drafted with Tampa Bays 1st round draft pick (first overall). He is a LHP out of Vanderbilt. His fastball consistantly sits between 90 and 92 MPH touching 95 MPH at times. He has three plus pitches and will be put on the fast track to the major leagues. Along with great skills he has a great mentality, on and off the field. Coaches have said that when Price is not available to pitch he voluntarily became the teams bat boy. He projects with a very high ceiling and he shouldn't be a huge problem to sign. He could be in the majors by the end of 2008.

So, where does Price fit in with the current prospects in the majors already? The following list includes only players with NO major league experience.

1. JUSTIN UPTON, of, Diamondbacks
2. YOVANI GALLARDO, rhp, Brewers
3. EVAN LONGORIA, 3b, Devil Rays
4. JAY BRUCE, of, Reds
5. CAMERON MAYBIN, of, Tigers
6. DAVID PRICE, LHP, TB
7. ANDREW McCUTCHEN, of, Pirates
8. REID BRIGNAC, ss, Devil Rays

Keep in mind that by the end of the season a couple of these players will have played in the majors. It is almost a sure thing that Upton and Gallardo will have. Take it with a grain of salt because it is bound to change as things play out this season.

1st Round Quick Hits

The first round of the Rule-4 first year players' draft is complete. Over the course of the next couple of days you're going to read a lot of articles, most will begin with the play on words "Price is right for Devil Rays". Everyone knows David Price is going to be a stud. What about the rest of the round? Here are a couple of quick hits:

- The two best values in the draft could come in the last four picks of the first round. First, the Tigers nabbed Rick Porcello who is a top 5 talent but slipped due to signability issues. He is a Boras client. Then, the Yankees nabbed Andrew Brackman who is a top 10 talent who slipped due to injury concerns. He may be forced to have Tommy John surgery but that is almost always successful.

- The 2nd to last pick of the draft, Wendell Fairley, could also be a great fantasy value. The Giants probably landed their future leadoff man in Fairley but to fantasy owners he represents much more. One of his top comparables is said to be Carl Crawford, a player who is much more valuable in fantasy than in real life.

- Two first rounders should be on the fast track for their teams closer job: Daniel Moskos, PIT; Casey Weathers, COL

- The other best future fantasy options: Josh Vitters, 3B, CHC; Mathew Wieters, C, BAL; Jarrod Parker, RHP, ARI; Phillippe Aumont, RHP, SEA; Jason Heyward, OF, ATL.

There will be complete analysis of the entire draft in the Huge Novemeber Draft Guide. So get pumped for that! There will also be more analysis over the course of the summer.

Thursday's Rule-4 Draft

The Rule-4 first year players draft is underway and MLB Front Office will be here providing coverage for it. I will recap the first round at its finish. If you have any questions on specific players, feel free to email me. I will be checking my email throughout the draft.

After the conclusion of the first round I will provide you with my first impressions on all of the players including scouting notes, the speed they will asend to the majors, their upside, and other relevant notes.

Check back throughout the summer for more information on these players.

Thursday Notes

A couple of fantasy relevant notes for you:

- Joakim Soria was activated from the DL but will not be the closer as of the moment. He's probably not worth holding on to.

- Joe Mauer will be activated for tomorrows game so get him back in your lineup.

- Both J.D. Drew and Scott Rolen will return to the lineup today.

- Santiago Casilla recorded a save for Oakland in their win over Boston. After being called up, it was assumed he would rise quickly towards the 8th or 9th inning role but, both Embree and Calero had pitched three straight nights and were probably unavailable to pitch. He's worth keeping an eye on but don't go crazy trying to add him.

- Michael Barrett didn't catch for Zambrano last night after their fight during his previous start. Barrett doesn't usually catch for him but they tried it out when Blanco went on the DL. When Zambrano is starting put in your backup catcher if you have one.

Why the Cubs Should Trade Zambrano

Although I find it hard to believe the Cubs would trade Zambrano if they were in contention, if they are more than 10 games back at the trade deadline, there are a couple of very convincing reasons why Zambrano should be gone.

I did some quick number crunching and it appears with Zambrano's contract off the books for the '08 season the Cubs payroll will be at about 105 million. That is a lot higher than this year considering it was right at 100 million with Zambrano's contract. Considering that the Payroll will continue to increase over the next couple of years because of the backloaded contracts the Cubs signed, I find it hard to believe that the Cubs will go above 115 million for this season. Considering the outfield next year will probably be rid of Jones's 5 million that is calculated into the 105 figure (along with a 5 million dollar allowance for a new catcher or to resign Barrett with) that leaves the Cubs with about 15 million to play with. I see two choices here.

The first choice is to resign Zambrano and risk that he will give the Cubs another mediocre season for 15 million a la Kerry Wood. This is both risky and an inefficient use of money. Granted, if Zambrano pitched to form this year, the offense could probably carry the team from there. Next year, however, I am not sure Marquis and Lilly will be fooling batters as much. Lilly because batters will have seen his stuff for a year and Marquis because well, he's Marquis.

The second choice is to trade Zambrano at the deadline for a pitching prospect who could step in as a number 2 or number 3 next year. The Cubs rotation would certainly be fairly weak, looking something like: 1) Lilly 2) Hill 3) Young Pitcher 4) Marquis 5) Marshall. However, that would leave 15 million to add another impact bat. 15 million isn't enough to add A-Rod if he opts out of his contract but there are other options that could be explored. If the new owner of the Cubs is willing to dish out the money, there is always the A-Rod possibility but honestly, I think the chances of that are less than five percent.

The positions that are set in stone: 1B: D. Lee, 3B: A. Ramirez, LF: A. Soriano, CF: F. Pie. In addition, Murton or Jones will probably remain intact in right field. Floyd is gone. That leaves the middle infield as somewhat of a question mark. Izturis's option will not be exersized and DeRosa is probably going to be starting at 2B (although I would rather see him in a super-utility role). SS is the only real opening and Theriot could fill it if we spent the money on a starter. If Soriano could play 2B that would solve our problems and we could go after a big time free agent outfielder but he can't. Only on extremely dire circumstances should Soriano ever be allowed in the infield with a glove. Getting A-Rod would solve these problems but the Cubs are about 10 million short and no one even knows if he'll opt out.

After that long winded article, I see a couple of possible solutions. First, they could resign Zambrano and go into next year with essentially the same roster as they will end this year with (assuming a Jones trade and Pie in center full time at the end of the year). Next, they could somehow muster up enough money for A-Rod. Like I said, don't really see that happening. Finally, they could go out and mix everything up. They could trade both Jones and Murton for relief pitching help this winter (God knows they need it) and end up with someone like Eric Byrnes in right field. Could they afford Byrnes and Zambrano? Maybe. Would it be terrible to save a little money for another year (they're going to need it) and just sign a Byrnes type player? No. But it might not make the fans happy.

The question becomes...can this team win?

Lineup:
1. Soriano - I hate him hear but I'm going to have to live with it
2. DeRosa
3. Lee
4. Ramirez
5. Byrnes
6. Barrett
7. Theriot
8. Pie
9. Pitcher

Rotation:
1. Lilly
2. Hill
3. (Someone like Mike Pelfrey or Nick Adenhart)
4. Marquis
5. Marshall

I'd say it's one good pitcher short. Which brings us back to Zambrano. All the speculation in the world isn't going to make this an easy offseason for the front office of the Cubs. It's gonna get interesting in Wrigleyville.

Monday Game Notes

Despite the fact that Roger Clemens start was pushed back to next Saturday, I still ventured over to the White Sox vs. Yankees game. A couple of quick notes:

- It was interesting to see Jermaine Dye and Bobby Abreu playing RF in the same stadium due to the trade speculation. I was sitting two rows behind where they were playing. At one point Abreu was resting along the wall and I almost got up to ask him if he liked playing at U.S. Cellular but I decided against it.

- I can tell you one thing. DeSalvo is not the answer. He was called up from Triple-A to start and was essentially KOed in the second inning. They did not waste any time shipping him back to Triple-A, it happened only about an hour after the game.

- I know I keep saying it but watch out for Paul Konerko. It wasn't that he hit a homerun or that he was 3 for 4 but rather it was when he rounded third after the homerun and slapped hands with the third base coach. The expression on their faces told me he was back. Sounds strange, but there was something about it.

- Jon Garland pitched well but there wasn't anything about the outing that jumped off the page at me.

- Just as a side note, there were two people sitting behind me talking about an A-Rod to the Sox trade and I'd like to point out that a trade to the Dodgers makes much more sense. The trade they were discussing was A-Rod for Buehrle and Crede. Not in a million years.

Bailey Might Start Saturday

Top Reds prospect Homer Bailey may be called up to start next saturday, MLB.com is reporting. The Reds haven't officially announced it and there are still a couple of other options but Bailey stands alone as the best option. Bobby Livingston was recently sent down to the minors after giving the Reds 1 good start but he can't be called back up because it would be within 10 days of his demotion. If Bailey is called up he is worth starting and if he is still a free agent he is worth adding now but if he is on your bench and you are in a weekly lineup change league, leave him on the bench this week because of the uncertainty.