Buy it or Sell it: Hot/Slow Starts

Hot Starts:

Rich Hill - I buy this one. The guys a stud in the making and one of the best left handed pitchers in the NL. Expect a slight regression in his numbers but a 3.3 ERA to end the year is probably not out of the question and anything less than 3.7 would be a dissapointment at this point.

Alex Rodriguez - Have to buy this one as well. No, he's not going to hit 100 home runs like he's on pace to do but he can top 50 and 55 or 60 isn't out of the question.

Mark DeRosa - Sell. This guy still shouldn't be on fantasy rosters and the Cubs should never have signed him.

Eric Byrnes - Buy. 30/30 not out of the question. 25/25 is definately attainable again. Could be one of the best draft day bargains.

Slow Starts:

Carlos Zambrano - Sell this. He always starts the season slow and he is always an ace in the end. Don't worry about Big Z.

Anthony Reyes - Sell this one as well. I think an ERA around 4 is a reasonable expectation and anything less than 4.5 will be a dissapointment. He'll figure it out at some point.

Alfonso Soriano - Sell it also. The move to LF should help his bat a little bit. He no longer will have to worry as much about defense.

Phillies - Buy. Okay, so we over exaggerated the Mets problems a tad bit but Pelfrey has looked horrible. The Phillies studs are going to wake up (Utley and Howard I'm talking to you) but the relief pitching is terrible and they need to make a trade. Moving their best SP not named Hamels to the pen is not the answer.

Mike Pelfrey - Buy. Don't get me wrong, he's going to be good in the long run but this is just not his year. He needs another year to mature but they just don't have that time to give him.

Chris B. Young and Carlos Quentin - Sell. These youngsters are going to start hitting its just a matter of time.

Want my opinion on another player? Send me an email.

Yikes!

It's been a while since my last post -- don't worry I'm not dead. I feel the need to explain myself a little bit. This blogs purpose is to provide fantasy advice. I don't think that it is really necessary for me to post every day with all of the call ups etc. I know everyone gets that news from MLB.com, ESPN.com, or Yahoo! anyway. That being said, the offseason is going to be a much more busy time for posting and you can expect my posts to be significantly less often during the season. As always, feel free to send me questions and I will happily answer them.

(FYI if Phil Hughes is still on the wire in your league you need to add him -- he is starting on thursday)

That's all I've got to say, hopefully I'll come up with something good sometime soon. As always, you can find my weekly column every thursday at sportsblurb.com.

3 up/3 down: SP

3 Up:

Felix Hernandez - I already wrote about him but there really isn't much to say besides this kid is the next big thing. Scratch that -- he is the big thing NOW. Him and Santana will be competing for AL Cy Young at the end of the year. When he keeps the ball low he is unhittable.

Daisuke Matsuzaka - So far the biggest import of the year looks like a great deal. I'm a little bit worried about fatigue from this guy down the stretch because he has logged so many innings in his career but he certainly looks like he is here to stay. He could be the best yet -- and no, I'm not forgetting about Ichiro and Matsui.

Zack Greinke - This kid WAS the next big thing before he went a little crazy. He's back in the majors and seems to have his head back on straight. His fastball has gained a little speed because of a leg strength program he is on and he certainly looks like he could dominate hitters all season.

3 Down:

Chris Carpenter - If I hear the words Tommy John I'm going to cry. No seriously, this time it's his elbow. He shouldn't miss much time but if this thing lingers fantasy owners who drafted them are going to be in trouble. He was the concesus number 2 starter in most fantasy drafts.

Carlos Zambrano - I wouldn't get too worried yet but in 3 starts he's given up 14 ER, thats 2nd in the MLB. Look for Z to rebound but if this keeps up he could be out of the running for Cy Young before the All-Star Break.

Brett Myers - The only pitcher to have more ER than Zambrano? Brett Myers. He does have 19 SO in his 3 starts so atleast he is helping fantasy owners in that way. Like Big Z, look for Myers to rebound.

Felix Hernandez Lights Out

Felix Hernandez vs. Dice-K. My oh my. Wasn't Dice-K getting all the hype. It was crazy. You know what was even more crazy? Felix Hernandez. I'm not going to go into details here about the game but this guy is for real. When he keeps the ball low, he is nearly unhittable. If there is one guy in all of the majors that could contend for AL Cy Young with Santana its Hernandez. I know that it is still early but this kid is the real deal. I will soon be releasing an updated version of my top 250 I hope. I can guarantee one thing, this kid is going to be on his way up the board. I had him ranked 62 in my preseason rankings. You should expect to see him after the Oswalt/Zambrano/Peavy/Halladay group but before last years NL Cy Young Brandon Webb. Just off the top of my head right now, that would put him in the top 50.

Lidge out as closer

Brad Lidge was given the chance to close and he lost it. Dan Wheeler will take over the 9th inning duties and should be a solid closer. Think about the level of Tom Gordon. I'm sure Wheeler is gone in your leagues already because he was being drafted in most leagues but if your playing with a bunch of idiots...be sure you pick him up!

In other news, Jose Valverde has looked good in Arizona and Bob Howry has been giving the Cubs no reason to consider moving Dempster out of the job in Chicago.

I'll try to get that closer list updated soon and put a link to it on the sidebar. My goal is to keep it updated through out the season.

2 Start Starters

Here are a couple of 2 start starters for the upcoming week...

AL

Rich Harden
AJ Burnett
Boof Bonser
Josh Beckett
Jeremy Sowers
Ervin Santana
Jon Garland
Brandon McCarthy
Carl Pavano
Jake Westbrook
Jose Contreras
Nate Robertson

NL

Matt Cain
Chris Young
John Maine
Jason Schmidt
Tim Hudson
Ian Snell
Anibal Sanchez
Cole Hamels
Ted Lilly
Braden Looper
Doug Davis

If you have these guys on your team they are probably worth starting in weekly lineups because they are starting twice, if you are in a daily lineup change league then make sure you stay on top of your lineup. Active Managers are Winning Managers!

Q & A

Have questions about who to play? Have questions about fantasy in general? Send 'em to my email: stew0610@ameritech.net. I'm always happy to answer any questions you have and you might just see your question on the blog!

Jorge Julio -- Bust?

Jorge Julio has been nasty in Florida -- and not the way the Marlins wanted him to be. He has looked absolutely terrible. As noted in previous posts, there are many options for Florida to pitch in the 9th. Owens and Gregg are the too front runners with Owens looking like the better choice of the two right now. Tankersley and Lindstrom could fill in if neither Owens or Gregg jumps on the opportunity. Petit hasn't done anything in Arizona yet but it certainly looks like the Diamondbacks made out like bandits on the deal. Julio will still provide some veteran support in the bullpen and could get another shot in the 9th if he is solid in a setup role and the other options struggle as well.

10 Things I Think I Think Based on the 1st Week

10. I think I think I'm not worried about Carpenter, he'll be okay. On the other hand, if I was a Cardinal's fan, I'd be worried about that bullpen.
9. I think I think Brad Lidge will be on a short leash but both him and Wheeler struggled so maybe it won't be that short.
8. I think I think that although K-Rod blew a save it might be the only one all season.
7. I think I think that Michael Barrett finally got his first hit but I don't worry about slumps...until they reach 100 AB its hard to tell much.
6. I think I think the Cubs starters have all looked good besides Zambrano whos contract talks are currently on hold. I don't think its related but who knows.
5. I think I think Mark Derosa is on fire although its only been a couple days with 2 home runs.
4. I think I think thats enough about the Cubs but I am a Cubs fan so its not my fault.
3. I think I think that the Dodgers, Reds and Twins should all bring up their young pitchers but hey what do I know?
2. I think I think that Grady Sizemore is the next big thing but theres no way he can keep up the pace hes currently at.
1. I think I think that Santana will have some competition for AL Cy Young although he will win in the end. Dice-K, Halladay, and Hernandez all should be great.

Mark Buehrle Booboo

Mark Buehrle left the game early today and if he is out for an extended period of time there are a couple of interesting options for the White Sox.

- Gavin Floyd came over from Philly in the Freddy Garcia trade and was considered the leading canidate for the #5 spot until John Danks won it.

- Charlie Haeger is an intruiging option. He has a nasty pitch although projection systems don't expect very much from him.

- My very very outside super sleeper canidate is David Aardsma. He just pitched 2 innings and had 5 Ks. He came over from the Cubs in the Cotts deal and I think the White Sox definately got the better end of the deal there.

None of these guys are really gonna be much help in mixed leagues but in AL only leagues they could be decent replacements if you had buehrle or are in need of SP.

Breakout Bound?

Players who had a .200 plus slugging percentage differential from their career norms could be in line for a break out season. This method last year predicted many breakouts such as Adrian Gonzalez. Over at Baseball Prospectus, they have an article about a couple of players who did the same feat and could be in line to break out. It's an interesting read and could help with your fantasy team. Check it out.

Bonds Chase Begins

Barry Bonds smacked one out of the park today. Actually, about 5 minutes ago...Now Thats Good Content! The 42 year old will break Aaron's record unless he has a career ending injury...#735 went to deep center. He needs 21 to pass Aaron and as many people don't want him to do it, I'm sorry HE WILL! In the future however, I truly believe that people will see it as two different records: The Pre-Steroid Era record and the Steroid Era record. When Bonds breaks the record it will be a huge deal but it won't be long lived...A-Rod isn't far behind him and then Pujols will probably break it after that so don't fret...Bonds won't have it for long.

MLB signs deal to keep "Extra Innings" on Cable TV

My cell phone just alerted me that the MLB has signed a 7 year deal to keep the Extra Innings package on Cable TV. It's not exactly fantasy news but it is certainly news worthy and many people should be happy with this. You have no idea how many emails I got complaining about this. Anyway, thats all I got.

Quick Tip

I haven't posted much recently but the season has gotten underway. I have a quick little tip for all of you: Don't Worry! If your players aren't performing as you would like, don't panic. Don't drop your guys and add someone until you've given them a fair chance. A great example of this is Chris Carpenter. Carpenter had a less than good first start but that doesn't mean he is going to struggle. On the same note, just because a player has one good game doesn't mean they are going to break out. Give the guy a chance to prove some consistancy before you add him.

That's all I have for you for now. I'll update you as players impress or dissapoint. Just because the season has started doesn't mean you stop doing research! That is one philosophy I talk about in my article over at sportsblurb (out tomorrow). If you haven't gotten the Xtra Innings package to read that article I suggest you do. There is some other great content over there including an article by The Fantasy Man.

Dustin Hermanson: This ain't 2005 no more

Dustin Hermanson was asked by the Cincinatti Reds to go down to AAA. He said he wouldn't pitch for AAA and he was released. Hermanson was thought to be the leading canidate for the 9th inning job but a lousy spring forced the Reds to either demote him or release him. The simple truth was he wasn't pitching well enough to make the team despite his 2005 season when he helped the White Sox win the World Series as the closer. Last season was almost completely lost to injury and he still hasn't returned to anywhere near the 2005 form. It is likely he will sit out the season and may announce his retirement. It didn't seem like there were many teams vying for his services before and if he is unwilling to pitch in the minors I don't see anything happening. Perhaps Cleveland might have some interest in him? Whatever the case may be, if you picked up Hermanson...drop him.

Additionally, avoid the Reds closer job at all costs. It looks like its going to be another messy closer by situation.

Blockbuster deal going down in Chicago

Jim Hendry is at it again. With no regard for the salary or the team needs, he again struck a deal. It had been rumored that the Mets would have interest in Zambrano if he hit the open market but with the deadline to resign Zambrano coming to a close, instead they nabbed him before he hit the open market. In return for Zambrano the Cubs will recieve OF prospect Lastings Milledge, Starting Pitcher Mike Pelfrey and a Minor Leaguer to be named later. The deal is contingent on the Mets reaching a long term deal with Zambrano in the 48 hour time frame the Cubs have allowed. Upon hearing that Zambrano would not sign a long term deal with the Cubs, the offers for Zambrano went way down and this was the one that the Cubs deemed to be the best. The other interested parties are rumored to have included the New York Yankees, the Detroit Tigers (who recently lost Kenny Rogers), the Tampa Bay Devil Rays and the surprisingly the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago White Sox names surfaced as well. Pelfrey will join the Cubs rotation as the #4 starter. Ted Lilly will start opening day. Milledge will start the season in AAA unless the Cubs can swing Jones before tomorrow -- which is unlikely. The Minor Leaguer to be named later is expected to be Single A pitcher Kevin Tomasiewicz. Hendry and Minaya both declined comment because the trade is not official yet.

Remember you heard it at MLB Front Office First! Bringing you all of your April Fools day news.

MIA in LA

Chone Figgins and Jered Weaver will both start the season on the DL. Make sure you pick up a replacement before todays game. Neither should be out for more than the 15 days but make sure you pick up someone to fill their spot in the lineup. Neither of their replacements on the Angels are really fantasy worthy although Macier Izturis was decent last year.

Can Cantu?

Jorge Cantu, pushed out of a starting job at 2nd by BJ Upton was sent to the minor leagues. He immediately asked to be traded. He really isn't a minor league player and isn't too far removed from that 28 HR season back in 2005. He is still only 25 and has a lot of potential despite a very dissapointing season last year (he was battling a foot injury all last year). Most managers will probably drop him so if he does get traded make sure you jump right on him and pick him up. Tampa Bay would be smart to trade him for a pitcher of some sort.

Tampa Bay Surprise

In two surprise moves, both Elijah Dukes and BJ Upton will be starting on opening day. They could both provide late round value in fantasy leagues and are both certainly worth a mid-round pick in Dynasty and very large Keeper leagues. Dukes will be starting in center and Upton will be starting at second. If Upton can gain eligibility at 2nd, he could be money in that position. Think Ian Kinsler, Josh Barfield grouping with the potential be even higher. As for Dukes, he pushed Rocco Baldelli out of the outfield but don't worry, Baldelli will be the DH and will get plenty of time in the outfield.